Seconds away ~ Round 4 BAHRAIN Betting.

[MGJohn]

The bookies again have the two Mclaren boys favourites. That's understandable for several reasons. They are also showing respect for Vettel. Here is what is generally available 'early doors' ...

9/4 Lewis Hamilton

9/4 Jenson Button

8/1 Nico Rosberg

8/1 Sebastian Vettel

10/1 Michael Schumacher

14/1 Mark Webber

18/1 Kimi Raikkonen

20/1 Fernando Alonso

40/1 Sergio Perez

50/1 Romain Grosjean

50/1 Kamui Kobayashi

150/1 Felipe Massa

200/1 Pastor Maldonado

250/1 Bruno Senna

500-1 bar [ 500-1 and upwards other runners.]

Each way 1/5th Odds 1-2-3 ~ SEE BELOW comments on each way betting.

So what do I fancy with value in mind at this early stage some may ask. I am taking the still improving Mercedes GP showing as kosher and until proven otherwise, their odds appear generous @ 8-1 ROS and 10-1 MSC for the win in Bahrain. The track maybe less suitable for them compared to some other cars but, I'm taking that risk before a wheel is turned in Bahrain.

I have already backed both Mercedes GP drivers for the Win and the Podium... Not each way as seperate WIN and PODIUM bets take advantage of better odds for a Podium. For example MSC @ 10-1 1/5 the odds a place 1-2-3 equates to only 2-1 for a podium. MSC is available @ 11-4 [ 2.75 - 1 ] for a seperate Podium bet. BIG difference.

Again a reminder to look around and closely when comparing odds. Another example to consider. If you fancy a few quid each way on a BIG outsider, say Heikki Kovalainen; he is 200-1 in some lists whilst 1000-1 in others. HUGE difference.

As always, you pays your money .... and be lucky....
..

[mollytherocker]

Except its not going to happen is it?

MTR

[FeelingLucky]

mollytherocker said:

Except its not going to happen is it?

MTR

No, I suspect not.

[Life Saab Itch]

What odds that it does happen?





Also, at Massa's odds difference to Alonso's. The next largest margin is probably Senna to Maldonado.






If the race were to go ahead it would possibly suit the Mercs even more with the two DRS zones they were talking about.

[DJRC]

I like the Mercs and Kimi for a Podium.

[MGJohn]

Anyone have the latest on this on-off situation ?

If it does not take place, all bets off of course.
.

[andyjo1982]

Any ideas what happens if I place a bet today, and for whatever reason, not all of the cars start? Or a team or 2 pull out? Somebody mentioned 40/1 for a Williams podium. That would seem pretty big if a few of the big players didn't race for whatever reason...

Cheers

[Gene Vincent]

andyjo1982 said:

Any ideas what happens if I place a bet today, and for whatever reason, not all of the cars start? Or a team or 2 pull out? Somebody mentioned 40/1 for a Williams podium. That would seem pretty big if a few of the big players didn't race for whatever reason...

Cheers

That was me and I have a tenner on at those odds.

In the light of Mercedes history (le mans 1955?) Merc and merc powered cars cars might stop part way through.

Worth a tenner of anyones money in my opinion.

[rev-erend]

What's the odds that the race will be delayed but to a protest incident ..

Probably more likely than MS winning (10/1)

[MGJohn]

If for any reason there are withdrawals which affect the odds of the remaining participants, there will be an adjustment. It may be only a 10% reduction on winnings or, if say both McLaren and Red Bull teams do not take part, the deduction will be much more as without that top opposition, the chances of the others are greatly enhanced.

It depends on various factors. If you had an ante-post type bet, all in win or not, say on Michael Schumacher and all the cars except his did not participate, then you will win @ the ante-post odds you obtained. Conversely, if you had an ante-post bet on say one of the drivers who did not take part, your bet is a loser. Ante-post bets are those placed well before the event. some ante-post betting will refund your stake if the selection does not participate. You must look at the various conditions when you place your bet.

Worth repeating.You have to look at the terms, conditions and the type of bet you are having. There again, if you have an ordinary bet and your selected driver did not take part, your stakes would be refunded in full for the non-runner.

Another example to consider. Say you had a bet on Manchester United to win and they drew 2-2 after 90 minutes play. Your bet is a loser even though they went on to win in extra time. Extra time being a short period replay and in effect a different game.

[andyjo1982]

MGJohn said:

If for any reason there are withdrawals which affect the odds of the remaining participants, there will be an adjustment. It may be only a 10% reduction on winnings or, if say both McLaren and Red Bull teams do not take part, the deduction will be much more as without that top opposition, the chances of the others are greatly enhanced.

It depends on various factors. If you had an ante-post type bet, all in win or not, say on Michael Schumacher and all the cars except his did not participate, then you will win @ the ante-post odds you obtained. Conversely, if you had an ante-post bet on say one of the drivers who did not take part, your bet is a loser. Ante-post bets are those placed well before the event. some ante-post betting will refund your stake if the selection does not participate. You must look at the various conditions when you place your bet.

Worth repeating.You have to look at the terms, conditions and the type of bet you are having. There again, if you have an ordinary bet and your selected driver did not take part, your stakes would be refunded in full for the non-runner.

Another example to consider. Say you had a bet on Manchester United to win and they drew 2-2 after 90 minutes play. Your bet is a loser even though they went on to win in extra time. Extra time being a short period replay and in effect a different game.

Thanks. I do quite a few footy bets, i'm just curious how withdrawels might affect potential returns. I haven't placed any bets yet, but had a look earlier and couldn't see any clear exclusions.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on this weekend John? I noticed Button was about 9/1 to get on pole. That seems a big price for what is essentially a 4 horse race. Hamilton is as short as 2/1.

I'm also intrested in Vettel and Webber for a podium.

Cheers

[MGJohn]

Just had a look at a couple of on-line bookies. Lewis Hamilton is favourite for the race at around 2-1 and as low as 15-8 as well.

My advice to anyone who fancies a bet on their favourite driver to wait until a few minutes before the race before so doing. In the very 'iffy' environment, it may not be wise to have a substantial bet, just a minor interest.

Again I notice that with several drivers, it's best to bet WIN Only and a seperate PODIUM bet rather than ordinary each way betting as the odds for a podium are frequently better than each way for a place 1-2-3.

[MGJohn]

So, where's your money on the fastest In Qualy??

Here's the way one major on-line bookie sees it :~

10/11

Nico Rosberg

4/1

Lewis Hamilton

5/1

Sebastian Vettel

15/2

Michael Schumacher

12/1

Jenson Button

12/1

Mark Webber

33/1

Kimi Raikkonen

100/1

Fernando Alonso

100/1

Romain Grosjean

100/1

Kamui Kobayashi

100/1

Sergio Perez

250-1 and upwards others.

EACH WAY 1/5th the odds 1-2-3.

===============

Both Button @12-1 and Schumacher around 7-1 ..... Hmmmm. Tempting each way...

Five minutes to go now. Be lucky.

EDIT to add @ 11:59 :~

Just had a little each way Jenson @ 14-1. That'll do me....
..

Edited by MGJohn on Saturday 21st April 11:59

Edited by MGJohn on Saturday 21st April 11:59

[elster]

I have got my pound on Hamilton for Quali and Raikkonen for podium.

[andyjo1982]

I've not done anything in quali, hope you hadn't done Schumi...

[Gene Vincent]

£20 e/w on Schumacher at 66/1 too good to miss!

[MGJohn]

Gene Vincent said:

£20 e/w on Schumacher at 66/1 too good to miss!

Woah back there ~ just got 80-1 each way for a few quid with Bet365. I like a long shot now and again.

We'll have some fun for such a small outlay. Surely Schumacher's bad luck will have to end soon.

For the win, very hard to pick anyone up front now the finger has shown better form. Another anybody's race and that I like it that way. Probably go for Button though as he's a better price considering race pace and craft and I prefer that for my value ...

Qualifying was a tad misleading too I feel for several drivers.

[Gene Vincent]

MGJohn said:

Gene Vincent said:

£20 e/w on Schumacher at 66/1 too good to miss!

Woah back there ~ just got 80-1 each way for a few quid with Bet365. I like a long shot now and again.

We'll have some fun for such a small outlay. Surely Schumacher's bad luck will have to end soon.

For the win, very hard to pick anyone up front now the finger has shown better form. Another anybody's race and that I like it that way. Probably go for Button though as he's a better price considering race pace and craft and I prefer that for my value ...

Qualifying was a tad misleading too I feel for several drivers.

Yep, just about to edit... I clicked Corals not ladbrokes and got 80/1 as well! Didn't see that at the time, but I must have been guided by an unseen hand.

[chilistrucker]

would i get odds on race being stopped due to track invasion?

[MGJohn]

chilistrucker said:

would i get odds on race being stopped due to track invasion?

Doubt it. You could ask around if only wanting a small bet.

There's always some nutter or nutters who would have a large bet and try to make it so. Hence any sensible bookie doesn't want to know.

Sometimes deployment of the Safety Car is at good odds. I wonder if any of those who control such decisions ever have a bet. I've seen the SC deployed for very little reason.

Apart from doping and non-triers, others pull strokes like the use of a laser beam to upset the running of a horse. Bookies have to be wary. When a number of large bets are placed on say a snooker match to win say 10 frames to 3 at big odds, and no bets for other frame scores, something is up particularly if the match result is 10-3... no end of strokes folks try to pull.

Oh yes, some of those connected with the various teams often have a bet. Bit like insider trading. The bookies get to know what's what and adjust odds accordingly or sometimes even refuse 'hot' bets.

Edited by MGJohn on Saturday 21st April 22:35