When will the new XJ be sub £25k ?

[WindsorRob]

I'm lurking for one of these...I know they divide opinion but I love them and I've not had a jaguar yet, so must deal with that ! Anyway, looking at them online, I see there are a few at dealers heading down towards £30k, though most are £33 upwards. ANy views on when they'll be at £25k... I reckon within the year ?

[Thin White Duke]

Don't Jags halve in value every 3 years? So one new at 50K would be 25K after three years.

[peter450]

This was very true in the past, it might take a bit longer this time though, the car has launched in bad economic period, and not sold as many as a result, in around 3 to 4 years hopefully things will be improving again, and demand will start to up, but this will likely support second hand prices, which will also be supported by lower sales initially

Thats my take, i think the deprciation curve will get there, but more slowely than jag's of old

[5to1]

peter450 said:

This was very true in the past, it might take a bit longer this time though, the car has launched in bad economic period, and not sold as many as a result, in around 3 to 4 years hopefully things will be improving again, and demand will start to up, but this will likely support second hand prices, which will also be supported by lower sales initially

Thats my take, i think the deprciation curve will get there, but more slowely than jag's of old

Although I follow some of your logic, I think it is flawed since it doesn't take into account what is happening to new car prices and supply. In the case of the XJ pre-registered vehicles are readily available at significant discount. For example Stratstone currently have two XJ Luxury 11 Reg cars with delivery mileage listed at £37900 (32% off list). Clearly that sets a ceiling under which second hand examples will have to form an orderly queue based on spec/age/mileage/etc. The same is true of Premium Luxury and Portfolio vehicles as well. Thats before you consider the 0% finance, free upgrade from Premium Luxury, free servicing offers Jaguar have been running on new orders, on top of discounts off list. Or the 61 pre-reg vehicles that will pop up now.

IMO the scenario you've outlined only occurs when the manufacturer has the resolve to maintain prices and lower supply of new cars (usually this means they have other markets/models/brands which are doing well to compensate). When new/nearly new prices start to chase the market it has to have an effect on second hand prices. If you look at early XJ's they appear to be hitting the 50% mark within 3 years. For example there are 59 Reg Portfolios available at approx 50% of list, they are only 2 and a half years old at most. The 60 Reg cars appear to be closing the gap even faster and that will only drive down the 59/10 reg prices.

Given I've seen 2 cars advertised at £30k previously and there are a couple of 60 reg cars sitting at £33k & £34k, IMO we will see the base spec cars hit £25k within 6 months and be readily available at that price by the end of the year. IMO unless Jaguar find another market to shift production to, or are prepared to hold back supply/maintain list prices, the depreciation curve on the XJ will be steeper not shallower then 50% @ 3 years.

Edited by 5to1 on Saturday 3rd March 12:48

Edited by 5to1 on Saturday 3rd March 12:49

[sjc]

5to1 said:

peter450 said:

This was very true in the past, it might take a bit longer this time though, the car has launched in bad economic period, and not sold as many as a result, in around 3 to 4 years hopefully things will be improving again, and demand will start to up, but this will likely support second hand prices, which will also be supported by lower sales initially

Thats my take, i think the deprciation curve will get there, but more slowely than jag's of old

Although I follow some of your logic, I think it is flawed since it doesn't take into account what is happening to new car prices and supply. In the case of the XJ pre-registered vehicles are readily available at significant discount. For example Stratstone currently have two XJ Luxury 11 Reg cars with delivery mileage listed at £37900 (32% off list). Clearly that sets a ceiling under which second hand examples will have to form an orderly queue based on spec/age/mileage/etc. The same is true of Premium Luxury and Portfolio vehicles as well. Thats before you consider the 0% finance, free upgrade from Premium Luxury, free servicing offers Jaguar have been running on new orders, on top of discounts off list. Or the 61 pre-reg vehicles that will pop up now.

IMO the scenario you've outlined only occurs when the manufacturer has the resolve to maintain prices and lower supply of new cars (usually this means they have other markets/models/brands which are doing well to compensate). When new/nearly new prices start to chase the market it has to have an effect on second hand prices. If you look at early XJ's they appear to be hitting the 50% mark within 3 years. For example there are 59 Reg Portfolios available at approx 50% of list, they are only 2 and a half years old at most. The 60 Reg cars appear to be closing the gap even faster and that will only drive down the 59/10 reg prices.

Given I've seen 2 cars advertised at £30k previously and there are a couple of 60 reg cars sitting at £33k & £34k, IMO we will see the base spec cars hit £25k within 6 months and be readily available at that price by the end of the year. IMO unless Jaguar find another market to shift production to, or are prepared to hold back supply/maintain list prices, the depreciation curve on the XJ will be steeper not shallower then 50% @ 3 years.

Edited by 5to1 on Saturday 3rd March 12:48

Edited by 5to1 on Saturday 3rd March 12:49

That's a terrific post above, I'd only add another factor, that being the new XJ is a distinctly Marmite car, and it appears dealers aren't overly keen in taking them in part-ex if the experience of some posters on here is the norm.

[Pickled Piper]

Market for big luxury saloons is on its knees in the UK and very unlikely to recover.

pp