Remember the self-imposed fuel shortages of 2000, when blockades caused a temporary meltdown of the nation’s refuelling infrastructure? Guess what the average price of diesel - a hot-button issue at the time - was that year? About 81p. On Monday, the RAC told us that it considered the average price of a litre of diesel in the UK to be 199.18p - the ‘highest level in UK history’, eclipsing a record set back in 2022.
Now, clearly there has been a lot of inflation in 26 years, but being on the crest of two pounds per litre does rather boggle the mind. The RAC reckons the cost of filling an ‘average’ family car is almost £110. Which is wince-inducing enough before you consider the cost of brimming a lorry’s tank. “Undoubtedly these increased costs will be passed on to consumers,” said head of policy, Simon Williams, somewhat redundantly.
It’s not like those of us driving something cleaner-burning have anything to cheer, either. "Petrol prices, too, are continuing to rise. A litre of unleaded stands at 174.13p on average, 41p more than at the start of the [Iran] war – taking the cost of a full tank to nearly £96.” The BBC helpfully points out that the UK is well-equipped to refine petrol (part of the reason its cost remains well shy of the record set in 2022), but cannot produce enough diesel to meet domestic demand.
And because that demand is skewed toward haulage and agriculture, there is no alternative to its use. "These extraordinarily high prices are another reminder of just how exposed the UK is to events occurring far away from its shores,” said Williams. “Only a sustained lower oil price – over several weeks, not days – will lead to cheaper prices at the pumps.”
On the basis that Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in seven days, lowering the price of Brent crude seems a distant prospect. Over the weekend, this rose to $108 per barrel. Prior to the conflict, it was trading at around $73 per barrel. “By eclipsing the previous highest price of 199.09p seen in June 2022, the diesel price has entered new uncharted territory,” Williams noted.
Despite the UK's ‘limited leverage’ in bringing the war to an end (a polite way of framing the Government’s impotence), the RAC does remind us that it has several levers it might pull in next month’s budget, including lowering fuel duty outright or reducing VAT. Alternatively, if it chooses to do nothing to alter its current plan, by the spring an additional 5p will need to be factored onto prices at the pumps as the current cut is reversed. It seems almost inconceivable that would be allowed to happen. Or not without risking the kind of outrage that shut the refinery gates a quarter of a century ago…
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