One day soon we’ll all get a speed ban
Discussion
www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1399995,00.html
One day soon we’ll all get a speed ban
IT IS a formula to infuriate. A leading statistician has warned there are now enough speed cameras to ensure the average driver can expect to face three driving bans in their motoring career, writes Jonathan Leake.
The study found that a typical driver — someone who normally obeys the rules but occasionally lapses — should now see occasional bans as almost inevitable.
In a research paper published in Mathematics Today, Rose Baker, professor of statistics at Salford University, says that with 4,500 cameras in Britain “the average driver will face a driving ban every 15 years”.
Baker also says that, far from habitual speeders being singled out by the cameras, being caught is “a lottery”.
According to her formula, the average driver can expect to clock up a speeding offence every two years. However, no driver will accumulate offences at exactly the average. Some will be caught for several offences in a short time, others may go for years without speeding near a camera.
This random variation means a quarter of drivers will get enough points to be banned every seven years. At the other end of the scale the randomness means about 9% will get through their motoring lives without a ban at all.
“All these motorists would be driving in an identical way, perhaps breaking the speed limit a bit but not often,” said Baker. “The reason for this effect is simply the growing number of speed cameras.”
One day soon we’ll all get a speed ban
IT IS a formula to infuriate. A leading statistician has warned there are now enough speed cameras to ensure the average driver can expect to face three driving bans in their motoring career, writes Jonathan Leake.
The study found that a typical driver — someone who normally obeys the rules but occasionally lapses — should now see occasional bans as almost inevitable.
In a research paper published in Mathematics Today, Rose Baker, professor of statistics at Salford University, says that with 4,500 cameras in Britain “the average driver will face a driving ban every 15 years”.
Baker also says that, far from habitual speeders being singled out by the cameras, being caught is “a lottery”.
According to her formula, the average driver can expect to clock up a speeding offence every two years. However, no driver will accumulate offences at exactly the average. Some will be caught for several offences in a short time, others may go for years without speeding near a camera.
This random variation means a quarter of drivers will get enough points to be banned every seven years. At the other end of the scale the randomness means about 9% will get through their motoring lives without a ban at all.
“All these motorists would be driving in an identical way, perhaps breaking the speed limit a bit but not often,” said Baker. “The reason for this effect is simply the growing number of speed cameras.”
targarama said:
So following this theory I'm an above average driver as I've never had any points.
Why do people bother coming up with this twaddle. I don't care if it is for or against drivers/motoring, it's still a waste of good photons on my screen.
Liebchen!
Of course I am knowing my driving ist einfach Klasse! Und well above the average
(Und we all know that felines are never modest 
) But .... since we are now putting up mit forests of Gatsos und all placed at sites where they know you will not necessarily discern the extra pick-up of speed, und we all blip over limit by 10% plus 5 margin at least on any one journey ... statistically the majority will be caught out. Und this does not reflect on actual driving skills.
That ist why a BiB will always win hands down over a machine.
Und I wany my Dibbles!
I've never had any points either, but I don't think that means I'm an above average driver it just means that any BiBs who've seen me have used their discretion and I haven't gone through any live cameras without seeing them. But I exceed the speed limit routinely (not by much, and only where it is safe to do so) so I could, in theory, go from a clean license to a ban within a matter of hours. Ten years ago I would have expected to be in serious trouble only if I did something genuinely dangerous. Now that these laws are being enforced more widely and with less discretion, my feeling is that it is only a matter of time before I have the book thrown at me. It seems that being a safe and prudent driver isn't enough these days.
Perhaps we need system where say your allowed 24 points before a ban. I'm guessing the old system was based on the chances on you getting done 4 times in 3 years based on your driving style and number of police around (ie chances of getting caught) and I'm also assuming that the law was there to get the most serious offenders (ie those abovethe 85th percentile) banned. Now we have alot more chances of been caught by camera's why not give us more leeway. As has been said before the consequences of losing your licence could also mean losing your home. IS that fair?
Another problem is the rich get away with it, Beckham, Fergerson, Hamiltons, money buys a good defence.
A collegue of mine was caught in Scotland doing a 130 (recorded) in a 60. With 9 points already he went before the Sherriff and successfully argued that banning him would be to the detrement of all his patients as he would no longer be able to do home visits and on call successfully. He got a 1200 fine, 4 points and a warning thast next time a ban would be handled to him.
Another problem is the rich get away with it, Beckham, Fergerson, Hamiltons, money buys a good defence.
A collegue of mine was caught in Scotland doing a 130 (recorded) in a 60. With 9 points already he went before the Sherriff and successfully argued that banning him would be to the detrement of all his patients as he would no longer be able to do home visits and on call successfully. He got a 1200 fine, 4 points and a warning thast next time a ban would be handled to him.
I think the chances of getting points and a ban depends where you drive, and the amount of miles driven.
The two occasions in the last 6 years that I have been caught speeding were in Cambridgeshire and Norfolk which is not a regular journey.
If you don't stray from your known routes, then you are less likely to get caught, as you know where all the places are that you are likely to get caught, and drive slower.
Someone that drives in areas they do not know are more likely to get caught, as they will not know all the hiding places for scameras and unmarked BIB etc.
The two occasions in the last 6 years that I have been caught speeding were in Cambridgeshire and Norfolk which is not a regular journey.
If you don't stray from your known routes, then you are less likely to get caught, as you know where all the places are that you are likely to get caught, and drive slower.
Someone that drives in areas they do not know are more likely to get caught, as they will not know all the hiding places for scameras and unmarked BIB etc.
targarama said:
So following this theory I'm an above average driver as I've never had any points.
Why do people bother coming up with this twaddle. I don't care if it is for or against drivers/motoring, it's still a waste of good photons on my screen.
Hmm. Not if it provides an early warning to the 'masses' - the large proportion of the 30 million drivers who think that speeding issues will never affect them and support the concept of enforcement by robot (apparently) - that they are likely to be victims in the next few years no matter how hard they try to resist.
Personally I think the broader the base of support and understanding the populace have about the issues (beyond speeding as well perhaps?) the better the chance of the country retaining some aspects that still make it worth living here.
But if they can't see the scams for what they are, then anywhere in the world will be just as good or bad as anywhere else. Lowest common denominator and all that.
Word seems to be that you can do pretty well in Zimbabwe ...
>> Edited by LongQ on Sunday 12th December 15:39
Don't let Mad Moggie catch you saying that!
Damn I must be unlucky.
3 times in the last 9 months have put my license (and my job) on the line. It's a fickle system when you do 80,000miles a year, but try explaining that to the BiB when you've just been caught by a hand held laser on a nice quiet road.
Pity I can't return the favour when I'm driving at the speed limit and Mr PC comes cruising past me at about 15mph over the speed limit
3 times in the last 9 months have put my license (and my job) on the line. It's a fickle system when you do 80,000miles a year, but try explaining that to the BiB when you've just been caught by a hand held laser on a nice quiet road.
Pity I can't return the favour when I'm driving at the speed limit and Mr PC comes cruising past me at about 15mph over the speed limit
The stats make perfect sense to me, my father was done by different cameras total 9 pts in 6 months!! the other half also received 6 points and has 3 pending (use of pepipoo may sway this) which are within the last 12 months.. the kicker is that none of the speeds were more than 10mph over the limit and where conditions allowed.. my brother also racked up enough points in the last 2 years to give him a ban.. They are not bad drivers - far from it.. just been very unlucky.. and whilst the idea of extending the point system to 24 is a valid one, it doesn't get rid of the problem of cameras sited purely for generating revenue over supposed safety..
targarama said:
So following this theory I'm an above average driver as I've never had any points.
Why do people bother coming up with this twaddle. I don't care if it is for or against drivers/motoring, it's still a waste of good photons on my screen.
No, you are making yourself an individual case. The worlds greatest driver could be banned in half an hour and a maniac never caught.
Personally I don't think it'll get this far ; there will be riots & protests a la Poll Tax/Hunting/Fuel Tax but on a larger scale way before these projections actually get there.
Having said that, the projections are probably right ; it will be worse when the "improved" levels come in.
It will be disproportionate in some areas ; being banned from driving where I live means you can't work, take my kids to school, or even eat. When I lived in Central London it would have been an annoyance but not catastrophic.
Actually that's an interesting one. If both parents are banned from driving (it will happen increasingly) are children required to walk 2-3 miles to school every day. Will they be prosecuted if they don't ?
I thought the article was very useful actually. Shame it was hidden away in the inside pages.
The point is that getting points from cameras is now down to statistics, not driving ability. Given that everyone exceeds the limits occasionally (I think even Brunstrom admitted to this some time ago), there are now so many cameras that you're going to get done every so often simply based on the laws of probability. There will be a normal distribution of course so some will never be done while others will be done frequently, but even this is simply down to the random nature of the events.
That should be enough to make anyone sit up and think. As a country, we're now prosecuting and banning drivers indiscriminately for minor speeding indiscretions that everyone is guilty of and which have no impact on road safety. Is that the real aim of partnerships? If not, let them change. If so, let's have it out in the open as their declared purpose. Somehow I don't think they'll change, so we must draw our own conclusions....
The point is that getting points from cameras is now down to statistics, not driving ability. Given that everyone exceeds the limits occasionally (I think even Brunstrom admitted to this some time ago), there are now so many cameras that you're going to get done every so often simply based on the laws of probability. There will be a normal distribution of course so some will never be done while others will be done frequently, but even this is simply down to the random nature of the events.
That should be enough to make anyone sit up and think. As a country, we're now prosecuting and banning drivers indiscriminately for minor speeding indiscretions that everyone is guilty of and which have no impact on road safety. Is that the real aim of partnerships? If not, let them change. If so, let's have it out in the open as their declared purpose. Somehow I don't think they'll change, so we must draw our own conclusions....
I may do one day. But if your're observant, check the scamera websites every week, and don't speed in 30 zones its unlikely you'll get caught. And on the m'way speed between junctions only and slow down if your view of the carriageway is blocked by a lorry for e.g. and then carry on merrily at 100mph+.
If you do get caught in fpn terittory then opt for court-if enough people do this- we'll all be off the hook.
Baz
If you do get caught in fpn terittory then opt for court-if enough people do this- we'll all be off the hook.
Baz
autismuk said:
So following this theory I'm an above average driver as I've never had any points.
Why do people bother coming up with this twaddle. I don't care if it is for or against drivers/motoring, it's still a waste of good photons on my screen.
No, you are making yourself an individual case. The worlds greatest driver could be banned in half an hour and a maniac never caught.
Personally I don't think it'll get this far ; there will be riots & protests a la Poll Tax/Hunting/Fuel Tax but on a larger scale way before these projections actually get there.
Well I normally prefer to avoid conflict and hassle, but in this case I hope you're right. I would dearly love to see the driving community en masse telling the government to get stuffed over this anti-speed policy.
Some kind of mass protest or civil disobedience that did not involve violence and damage to property would be fine by me. Something quiet, but powerful, which the government could not counter would be good.
Best wishes all,
Dave.
TripleS said:
targarama said:
So following this theory I'm an above average driver as I've never had any points.
Why do people bother coming up with this twaddle. I don't care if it is for or against drivers/motoring, it's still a waste of good photons on my screen.
No, you are making yourself an individual case. The worlds greatest driver could be banned in half an hour and a maniac never caught.
Personally I don't think it'll get this far ; there will be riots & protests a la Poll Tax/Hunting/Fuel Tax but on a larger scale way before these projections actually get there.
Well I normally prefer to avoid conflict and hassle, but in this case I hope you're right. I would dearly love to see the driving community en masse telling the government to get stuffed over this anti-speed policy.
Some kind of mass protest or civil disobedience that did not involve violence and damage to property would be fine by me. Something quiet, but powerful, which the government could not counter would be good.
Best wishes all,
Dave.
Agree, bin all NIPs
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