What chance of being killed in a road accident?
Discussion
There are numbers here www.pacts.org.uk/
Do a search on 'statistics' - 2002 figures are the most recent published.
IIRC there are figures on the HSE website too, but I can't be bothered to look just now
Do a search on 'statistics' - 2002 figures are the most recent published.
IIRC there are figures on the HSE website too, but I can't be bothered to look just now
deeps said:
Anyone know the odds of dieing in a road accident?
The back page of the Highway code says 1 in 200 people will die this way (DFT stats).
If we looked at all deaths from 1925 to 2005 would this figure be correct? Or how do they calculate it?
Cheers.
Yes, that is about right.
There are around 58 million people in the UK, average life expectancy is approx 70 years, therefore about 830,000 people die each year, of which 3,500 are the result of road accident. This equates to about 1 in 235 chance, in other words less than half of one percent.
kevinday said:
There are around 58 million people in the UK, average life expectancy is approx 70 years, therefore about 830,000 people die each year, of which 3,500 are the result of road accident. This equates to about 1 in 235 chance, in other words less than half of one percent.
No, I don't think so... the number of deaths a year doesn't have any bearing on the chance of someone dying on the road. What you've worked out is the probability that someone who has died, died in a road accident.
The chance of an individual dying would be 58M/3500 which is approximately 1 in 16500. However this is a crude estimate as it does not take into account exposure - it treats someone doing 50k miles a year the same as someone who doesn't step out of the house.
The accidents might have been caused by people avioding stray cones......
I actually tripped over a sign the other day telling me that the floor was wet. It had been left just around a corner in the middle of a corridor. Needless to say the floor it's self was bone dry.
I remember the days when one was free to fall over of ones own accord. It seems these days that you have to do it to order.
I actually tripped over a sign the other day telling me that the floor was wet. It had been left just around a corner in the middle of a corridor. Needless to say the floor it's self was bone dry.
I remember the days when one was free to fall over of ones own accord. It seems these days that you have to do it to order.
markh508 said:
No, I don't think so... the number of deaths a year doesn't have any bearing on the chance of someone dying on the road. What you've worked out is the probability that someone who has died, died in a road accident.
The chance of an individual dying would be 58M/3500 which is approximately 1 in 16500. However this is a crude estimate as it does not take into account exposure - it treats someone doing 50k miles a year the same as someone who doesn't step out of the house.
This would need to be further adjusted by the level of exposure to the different types of risk. Deaths per passenger mile are different for motorbikes, drivers/passengers of cars, pedestrians etc. Your own personal risk would depend on the mix of time you spent exposed to each probability.
You could go even further if you could drill down the stats. Eg if you don't wear a seatbelt by habit, your risk of death in an RTA would rise, even though your risk of being involved in an RTA would remain the same. 
To understand statistics you must understand the question first, then the answer. We had the answer and are left to imply the question, as follows:
If 1 in 200 deaths are caused by traffic accident then you do have a 1 in 200 chance of dying in a traffic accident. In other words, there is a 1 in 200 chance that your cause of death will be a traffic accident.
So far, so good.
But that is subject to the tiny, tiny point that you have to die of something and that may not be this year. Or next year, etc.
Dividing annual deaths from traffic accidents by the number of people living in the UK asks "what are your chances are of dying in a traffic accident this year".
Different question - see?
Speed lentilists take the answer from the first question and then present it in a way that you mis-interpret what it is telling you "I have a 1 in 200 chance of dying in a traffic accident if I go to the shops today". The art of lying with statistics!
If 1 in 200 deaths are caused by traffic accident then you do have a 1 in 200 chance of dying in a traffic accident. In other words, there is a 1 in 200 chance that your cause of death will be a traffic accident.
So far, so good.
But that is subject to the tiny, tiny point that you have to die of something and that may not be this year. Or next year, etc.
Dividing annual deaths from traffic accidents by the number of people living in the UK asks "what are your chances are of dying in a traffic accident this year".
Different question - see?
Speed lentilists take the answer from the first question and then present it in a way that you mis-interpret what it is telling you "I have a 1 in 200 chance of dying in a traffic accident if I go to the shops today". The art of lying with statistics!
james_j said:
It's worth noting that the odds of being killed as a result of excess speed is a tiny fraction of that.
Out of interest and as an indication of government priorities (!), I should think the odds of dying of the MRSA bug from a visit to hospital (as a patient) are much higher.
Good points. If it's a 1 in 58,000,000/3,500 (1 in 16571) chance of dying in a road accident overall, then even the government's "one third lie" would only decrease it to 1 in 25217. Other things present a much higher probability and are accepted as normal. And that's ignoring the fact that a significant proportion of road deaths are actually pedestrians (especially drunk pedestrians). It's not just going out driving that puts you at risk of an RTA, it's going out at all.
Similarly, the risk of death from MRSA at 1 in 58,000,000/5,000 (or should that be 20,000?) works out at 1 in 11600 (or 1 in 2900?), but most people are not admitted to hospital each year. If we assume say 10% do, then that would put the chance of dying from MRSA when in hospital up to 1 in 1160 (or 1 in 290!!). Puts RTAs in the shade, doesn't it?
markh508 said:
There are around 58 million people in the UK, average life expectancy is approx 70 years, therefore about 830,000 people die each year, of which 3,500 are the result of road accident. This equates to about 1 in 235 chance, in other words less than half of one percent.
No, I don't think so... the number of deaths a year doesn't have any bearing on the chance of someone dying on the road. What you've worked out is the probability that someone who has died, died in a road accident.
The chance of an individual dying would be 58M/3500 which is approximately 1 in 16500. However this is a crude estimate as it does not take into account exposure - it treats someone doing 50k miles a year the same as someone who doesn't step out of the house.
No you are not quite right, the sum would be 58m/ 3500 * 70 (the average life expectancy) = 1 in 235 ish.
Or, 1 in every 235 deaths are the result of a road accident, year in year out. Therefore the chance of you being one of them is exactly the same, 1 in 235 but we cannot say which year it will be.
for defibrillators Gassing Station | Speed, Plod & the Law | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff