One for the statisticians amongst us.
Discussion
DeltaFox said:
What is the total number of criminals in the UK population today expressed as a percentage?
definition of criminal?
If you mean somebody who breaks the law (as in the law is the law) on a regular basis my fiver goes on 99.999996%
The 0.000003% covers Her Majesty and Teflon Tony as they appear to be above the law.
Cynical? Moi?
I have no idea on how to work this out properly, but here are some numbers to start the ball rolling:
Total Prison population June 2004 - 75,000
Police estimated detected crimes - 20%
Assuming 100% conviction rate
Total is???
Oh god brain dead. Only had 4 hours sleep last night as 1 year old daughter has "the pox"..... Cant think and spent.... off to bed.... sorry....
Total Prison population June 2004 - 75,000
Police estimated detected crimes - 20%
Assuming 100% conviction rate
Total is???
Oh god brain dead. Only had 4 hours sleep last night as 1 year old daughter has "the pox"..... Cant think and spent.... off to bed.... sorry....
Its impossible to extrapolate criminal numbers from crime stats as most criminals will be multiple offenders. The reality is that criminals probably make up only a couple of percent but carry out huge numbers of crimes per scrote. Of course if you define criminals as people who break the law (as opposed to those who do harm through criminal intent) then the number is 100% making us all criminals.....
MilnerR said:
Its impossible to extrapolate criminal numbers from crime stats as most criminals will be multiple offenders. The reality is that criminals probably make up only a couple of percent but carry out huge numbers of crimes per scrote. Of course if you define criminals as people who break the law (as opposed to those who do harm through criminal intent) then the number is 100% making us all criminals.....
Now youve gone and hit my particular nail on the head.
I asked the question in an attempt to get a percentage figure, so, if we were to say that 2% of the population were crims(we'll chuck ALL the population in here just to err on the side of pesimissm) then worst case scenario is 1.2 million "criminals" actually running around causing mayhem.
I dont believe the figure is anything like as high as that as some are just repeat offenders...well the majority are i'd say.
More likely would be 20% of the 1.2 million are actual crims and if each of them kicked out 10 offences a year we'd be back into the ball park figure we started with.
So, for 240,000 (hypothetically, it could obviously be more or less-i do not know) criminals causing major league problems, its proposed to have this ace monitoring system watching the rest of us.
The reasons for having all this monitoring technology just dont add up when you look at it in those kinds of terms.
240,000 scum could be quite easily locked away if the political will was there to do it.
But instead, we have a system of bureaucrats that see it as an opportunity to extend their controls over the population as a whole by using the "for security and safety" arguments, in what i believe is an active conspiracy to force it upon us by allowing criminals to go unpunished, or at the very worst, given token punishments so they get back out there and keep commiting yet more crimes.
Its a self feeding cycle.
You only have to look at the speed camera situation to see the similarities.
Use methods to incriminate a large easily controlled body of people and then install "safety" cameras to address the "problem" that they created, while encouraging residents and other useful idiots to call for yet more "safety" cameras....just the same as with CCTV in town centres.
Yet when its scrutinised carefully, the system obviously dosent work at reducing crimes at all.
What it DOES do exceedingly well is to allow the state to stick its nose even further into your business than it has any dammed rights to.
All in the name of security and safety. Remember that for later when you get branded a criminal for not paying for or carrying your "id safety/security" card.
I agree entirely DeltaF, its not in the governments interest to control crime. Keep the population convinced there's a mugger around every corner and you can use this fear to syphon off our remaining freedoms. I'm sure the BiB on here would tell you that given free reign for 6 months they could cut crime to virtually zero. I think it was Dibble who said that their "scrotes to keep an eye on board" had had the same photos on them for years. Only changing for a few months when one got sent to the big house.
The way in which criminal law is treated needs to be changed. Sentences for repeat offenders need to be increased exponentially with each conviction (1 conviction = 1 year, 2 convictions = 10 years etc etc). This'll never happen though for various reasons; some politically cynical reasons and some due to the influence of do-gooding no-marks!
Around us there was a spate of car break-ins as well as sheds, garages etc. It reached the point where most people in the area were having something stolen at leat one every few weeks (had my car broken into twice inside 2 months). For the last 2 years there's not been a single breakin. Now either lots of scrotes had collectively decided to stop, or a single scrote had moved out of the area........
There were calls for CCTV to be installed to halt this "crime wave," when all it needed was for the single perp to be caught and given the shoeing of his life
The way in which criminal law is treated needs to be changed. Sentences for repeat offenders need to be increased exponentially with each conviction (1 conviction = 1 year, 2 convictions = 10 years etc etc). This'll never happen though for various reasons; some politically cynical reasons and some due to the influence of do-gooding no-marks!
Around us there was a spate of car break-ins as well as sheds, garages etc. It reached the point where most people in the area were having something stolen at leat one every few weeks (had my car broken into twice inside 2 months). For the last 2 years there's not been a single breakin. Now either lots of scrotes had collectively decided to stop, or a single scrote had moved out of the area........
There were calls for CCTV to be installed to halt this "crime wave," when all it needed was for the single perp to be caught and given the shoeing of his life
My new measure of chavness!MilnerR said:
Around us there was a spate of car break-ins as well as sheds, garages etc. It reached the point where most people in the area were having something stolen at leat one every few weeks (had my car broken into twice inside 2 months). For the last 2 years there's not been a single breakin. Now either lots of scrotes had collectively decided to stop, or a single scrote had moved out of the area........
Reminds me of a comment from a BiB on another forum a few years ago.
In the fairly large patch of affluence for which he was responsible the authorities knew of 8 regular career crims who accounted for most of the major burglaries and similar crimes.
That particular Xmas they had managed to put 5 of them out of circulation for the duration mostly for motoring offences. He figured a few families would be having happier Xmas days than they might otherwise have done.
Bit of a futile exercise, but this should give you some clues.
www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nscl.asp?ID=5752
DeltaFox said:
by allowing criminals to go unpunished, or at the very worst, given token punishments so they get back out there and keep committing yet more crimes.
As in somebody gets punished by a tagging order. When the tag gets applied they just make sure they are wearing sufficient numbers of thick socks so the tag can be left in the house and they are off to re-offend.
MilnerR said:
Sentences for repeat offenders need to be increased exponentially with each conviction (1 conviction = 1 year, 2 convictions = 10 years etc etc).
Yes please !
Anyone can make a mistake (bit of teenage shoplifting, accidental bit of GBH after the pubs shut, bit of driving too fast down the motorway), so make the first offence a light one.
But for repeat offenders, make the sentences go up a lot. Three strikes and you are out sounds very sensible to me - stops the career criminal and the terminally stupid.
I am very happy to pay for as many prisons and prison officers as are required.
MilnerR said:
There were calls for CCTV to be installed to halt this "crime wave," when all it needed was for the single perp to be caught and given the shoeing of his life
They can't cause too much trouble if they are locked up in the big Windsor hotel.
dcb said:What about: 1st speeding offence = 1 point, second = 10 points, etc., etc?
Sentences for repeat offenders need to be increased exponentially with each conviction (1 conviction = 1 year, 2 convictions = 10 years etc etc).
Is a 'repeat offender' one who commits the same type of crime?
What if the first offence is TWOC and the second is criminal damage to a 'safety' camera?
Streaky - whom you all know is not a troll
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