Road Safety Week
Discussion
It's Cheshire road safety week this week (sponsored by BRAKE). One of the interesting snippets used in the press release is that road deaths doubled in 2018 compared to 2017. So that's going well.
Are statistical anomalies only blips if the figures go down, but indicative of long term trends when they go up?
Are statistical anomalies only blips if the figures go down, but indicative of long term trends when they go up?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
Also doesn't seem to be true, unless they are specifically talking about Cheshire.
Also doesn't seem to be true, unless they are specifically talking about Cheshire.
People only get angry about 1770 road deaths if one of them is caused by an American with Diplomatic Immunity.
The rest are “just accidents“.
The number of deaths for Cheshire in 2018 was 46, so if it had gone up from less than 23, it was a big jump.
The rest are “just accidents“.
The number of deaths for Cheshire in 2018 was 46, so if it had gone up from less than 23, it was a big jump.
Edited by rdjohn on Thursday 21st November 15:05
speedking31 said:
Are statistical anomalies only blips if the figures go down, but indicative of long term trends when they go up?
Both and neither. The same with almost any statistic. It depends in part how you analyse the data. Fact is road death rates have doubled in Cheshire in the last year. over a longer period that may be seen as a "blip". But you can't really ignore it.
Drumroll said:
speedking31 said:
Are statistical anomalies only blips if the figures go down, but indicative of long term trends when they go up?
Both and neither. The same with almost any statistic. It depends in part how you analyse the data. Fact is road death rates have doubled in Cheshire in the last year. over a longer period that may be seen as a "blip". But you can't really ignore it.
For example if they had one death last year then two this year (but double the mileage had occurred in that same time) the fact they doubled wouldn't be very significant.
Five hundred last year & a thousand this would be more difficult to ignore.
So all surrounding circumstances will be important rather than just a 'doubling' headline.
vonhosen said:
If it's a small data set it could still be pretty easy to ignore.
For example if they had one death last year then two this year (but double the mileage had occurred in that same time) the fact they doubled wouldn't be very significant.
Five hundred last year & a thousand this would be more difficult to ignore.
So all surrounding circumstances will be important rather than just a 'doubling' headline.
Like I said earlier you can almost make statistics do what you like. Like wise however you would like to analyse it doubling of road deaths is a concern.For example if they had one death last year then two this year (but double the mileage had occurred in that same time) the fact they doubled wouldn't be very significant.
Five hundred last year & a thousand this would be more difficult to ignore.
So all surrounding circumstances will be important rather than just a 'doubling' headline.
rdjohn said:
People only get angry about 1770 road deaths if one of them is caused by an American with Diplomatic Immunity.
The rest are “just accidents“.
The number of deaths for Cheshire in 2018 was 46, so if it had gone up from less than 23, it was a big jump.
Maybe some people think that 1770 road deaths are just accidents but a great many including those who work for BRAKE (with whose motivations and methods you may agree or not) do not believe this and spend their working lives trying to improve the safety of those using the UK's roads.The rest are “just accidents“.
The number of deaths for Cheshire in 2018 was 46, so if it had gone up from less than 23, it was a big jump.
Edited by rdjohn on Thursday 21st November 15:05
It's true that the figures stated in this case may be spurious but 1770 deaths a year, or pretty much five per day, is a figure that I'd hope that most of us think that we should try and reduce.
After typing that and reading your post again I realise that I may have misinterpreted your tone - perhaps we're in agreement?!
It depends on how the figures are being represented - Are the figures actual deaths, or KSI, it also depends on when the figures are taken from and to.
For instance in November 2018, there was a big accident in Cheshire where 3 died and 2 were seriously injured.
If BRAKE are misrepresenting KSI as deaths, then this would be down as 5 in one accident.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/great...
For instance in November 2018, there was a big accident in Cheshire where 3 died and 2 were seriously injured.
If BRAKE are misrepresenting KSI as deaths, then this would be down as 5 in one accident.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/great...
echazfraz said:
rdjohn said:
People only get angry about 1770 road deaths if one of them is caused by an American with Diplomatic Immunity.
The rest are “just accidents“.
The number of deaths for Cheshire in 2018 was 46, so if it had gone up from less than 23, it was a big jump.
Maybe some people think that 1770 road deaths are just accidents but a great many including those who work for BRAKE (with whose motivations and methods you may agree or not) do not believe this and spend their working lives trying to improve the safety of those using the UK's roads.The rest are “just accidents“.
The number of deaths for Cheshire in 2018 was 46, so if it had gone up from less than 23, it was a big jump.
Edited by rdjohn on Thursday 21st November 15:05
It's true that the figures stated in this case may be spurious but 1770 deaths a year, or pretty much five per day, is a figure that I'd hope that most of us think that we should try and reduce.
After typing that and reading your post again I realise that I may have misinterpreted your tone - perhaps we're in agreement?!
Charities like Brake actually increase the numbers of KSI's as people now genuinely believe that if they aren't speeding then they are safe, only a minority if people take responsibility for the driving anymore and don't know what to do when their reliance of driver aids is overcome.
This article if the driver was a young man would have the book thrown at them yet as it's a middle aged female sympathy for their inept driving is expected instead
This article if the driver was a young man would have the book thrown at them yet as it's a middle aged female sympathy for their inept driving is expected instead
article said:
The crash happened on a rural road on the morning of January 13, 2017, as Claire drove Bradley and Hayden, who was then nine, to school.
The business manager was driving down a hill when she began losing control of her car.
"I was trying to pump the brakes and put the handbrake on but nothing would work," she said.
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire...
The standard of driving has never been lower on the roads, the only reason safety improved over the past couple of decades was due to advances in technology, ABS, airbags, crumple zones etc...The business manager was driving down a hill when she began losing control of her car.
"I was trying to pump the brakes and put the handbrake on but nothing would work," she said.
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire...
I don't think anyone wants to have any accidents at all but surely these agencies etc must realise that with so many cars coming and going, and being driven by so many people, that there will be accidents from time to time
I think all things considered we have pretty low accident rates and most accidents are not serious.
That's the price we all pay and the risk we all take for freedom of movement.
I think all things considered we have pretty low accident rates and most accidents are not serious.
That's the price we all pay and the risk we all take for freedom of movement.
vonhosen said:
Drumroll said:
speedking31 said:
Are statistical anomalies only blips if the figures go down, but indicative of long term trends when they go up?
Both and neither. The same with almost any statistic. It depends in part how you analyse the data. Fact is road death rates have doubled in Cheshire in the last year. over a longer period that may be seen as a "blip". But you can't really ignore it.
For example if they had one death last year then two this year (but double the mileage had occurred in that same time) the fact they doubled wouldn't be very significant.
Five hundred last year & a thousand this would be more difficult to ignore.
So all surrounding circumstances will be important rather than just a 'doubling' headline.
Gassing Station | Speed, Plod & the Law | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff