KSI down 53.5% in N Wales...........
Discussion
According to Brunstrom........ 
www.north-wales.police.uk:80/nwp/public/en/blogs/viewblog.asp?UID=1&CID=126
"I was claiming in my last Blog that the road casualty reduction programme here in North Wales is a good and simple illustration of modern police performance management. Here’s why - I attach the government’s 2005 road casualty figures (dead & seriously injured, or KSI):
These figures compare the 2005 calendar year results with the 1994-98 baseline. North Wales Police has the best results in England and Wales - in fact the best in the UK, and the UK has the best figures in the EU, so we’re right at the top of the tree, internationally. By last Christmas we had reduced our KSI figure in North Wales by an amazing 53.5%. You will note too that our reduction in KSIs compares very favourably with the Welsh average of 34%. There are now 278 fewer KSIs in North Wales each year than the in the late nineties, and the figures are still coming down.
These results would have been thought miraculous a few years ago - but they’re not. They are no accident either - pardon the pun. They are a direct result of applying the Bratton principles of which I talked in my last Blog. We worked out what the main killers are (speed, seatbelts and drink driving), and why people break the law (low risk of capture was the main cause) and convinced ourselves that we could make a difference. Then we thought out some tactics, and went for it. Relentlessly. The results are now history. This process works and we have the figures to prove it; the UK KSI results have proved so persuasive that other countries are following our example - most notably, and perhaps surprisingly to some, France.
Of course, the path has not been a comfortable one. It has created substantial and long-running controversy, mostly from drivers who had got used to breaking the law with complete impunity - they now find themselves with points, or banned, and they don’t like it. And boy, do they want all the rest of us to know about it! But we saw them off, because we knew, with certainty, that we would make the difference. Lives would be saved, and injuries avoided if we stuck to our guns so we did, through thick and thin. It would have been far easier to keep our heads down and hide from the problem - but I joined the police to do better than that.
Our tactics here in North Wales are a bit different from elsewhere. We have not concentrated on fixed site cameras (though we have a few - thirteen to be exact), but rather we’ve gone for dangerous routes (some up to 20km in length) and dangerous behaviours. We have carefully assessed every aspect of these roads (including road surfaces; signage; lines of visibility; time, type & cause of collision etc) and come up with a specific set of measures (with our partners in the local authorities) for that section of road. We have done the same with behaviour - dangerous motorcycling being the most obvious. We have unashamedly enforced the law, because it works, but we have left no stone unturned, and we have had senior officers personally engaged in a very robust performance regime. The secret has been in the detail, and in the determination to win. At all levels in North Wales Police we have gone to this with a will, knowing that what we were doing was morally right and that it would work. We knew that we’d take heat, but we reckoned that’s what we got paid for - and that in the end we would win (which in this context is not just vindication, although that’s nice, but far more importantly the reduction in death and injury), which matters a lot.
Anyway, the argument is more or less over now. It’s been furious at times, but we’ve proved our case. Of course this hasn’t just been about speeding - we have borne down relentlessly on drink driving, on seat belts and on using mobile phones too, as part of a holistic approach with partners but these issues have caused far less controversy. But the message is the same, and it’s simple. The police, properly organised and led, can and will make a difference. We have saved lives and prevented injury as a direct result.
I have a reputation for being obsessed with speeding. I am not. I am obsessed with delivering results, and if you keep reading Clive Wolfendale’s Blog you will shortly see what we have done to deliver excellence in crime fighting as well, because we strive to make a difference in all aspects of police work. It is for this reason that we now have a detection rate of in excess of 46%, neck and neck with one other force in England and Wales, but head and shoulders clear of the rest of the field. He’ll explain in detail how we are doing it, but it is exactly the same principle - a refusal merely to cope, and a determination to win."
www.north-wales.police.uk:80/nwp/public/en/blogs/viewblog.asp?UID=1&CID=126
"I was claiming in my last Blog that the road casualty reduction programme here in North Wales is a good and simple illustration of modern police performance management. Here’s why - I attach the government’s 2005 road casualty figures (dead & seriously injured, or KSI):
These figures compare the 2005 calendar year results with the 1994-98 baseline. North Wales Police has the best results in England and Wales - in fact the best in the UK, and the UK has the best figures in the EU, so we’re right at the top of the tree, internationally. By last Christmas we had reduced our KSI figure in North Wales by an amazing 53.5%. You will note too that our reduction in KSIs compares very favourably with the Welsh average of 34%. There are now 278 fewer KSIs in North Wales each year than the in the late nineties, and the figures are still coming down.
These results would have been thought miraculous a few years ago - but they’re not. They are no accident either - pardon the pun. They are a direct result of applying the Bratton principles of which I talked in my last Blog. We worked out what the main killers are (speed, seatbelts and drink driving), and why people break the law (low risk of capture was the main cause) and convinced ourselves that we could make a difference. Then we thought out some tactics, and went for it. Relentlessly. The results are now history. This process works and we have the figures to prove it; the UK KSI results have proved so persuasive that other countries are following our example - most notably, and perhaps surprisingly to some, France.
Of course, the path has not been a comfortable one. It has created substantial and long-running controversy, mostly from drivers who had got used to breaking the law with complete impunity - they now find themselves with points, or banned, and they don’t like it. And boy, do they want all the rest of us to know about it! But we saw them off, because we knew, with certainty, that we would make the difference. Lives would be saved, and injuries avoided if we stuck to our guns so we did, through thick and thin. It would have been far easier to keep our heads down and hide from the problem - but I joined the police to do better than that.
Our tactics here in North Wales are a bit different from elsewhere. We have not concentrated on fixed site cameras (though we have a few - thirteen to be exact), but rather we’ve gone for dangerous routes (some up to 20km in length) and dangerous behaviours. We have carefully assessed every aspect of these roads (including road surfaces; signage; lines of visibility; time, type & cause of collision etc) and come up with a specific set of measures (with our partners in the local authorities) for that section of road. We have done the same with behaviour - dangerous motorcycling being the most obvious. We have unashamedly enforced the law, because it works, but we have left no stone unturned, and we have had senior officers personally engaged in a very robust performance regime. The secret has been in the detail, and in the determination to win. At all levels in North Wales Police we have gone to this with a will, knowing that what we were doing was morally right and that it would work. We knew that we’d take heat, but we reckoned that’s what we got paid for - and that in the end we would win (which in this context is not just vindication, although that’s nice, but far more importantly the reduction in death and injury), which matters a lot.
Anyway, the argument is more or less over now. It’s been furious at times, but we’ve proved our case. Of course this hasn’t just been about speeding - we have borne down relentlessly on drink driving, on seat belts and on using mobile phones too, as part of a holistic approach with partners but these issues have caused far less controversy. But the message is the same, and it’s simple. The police, properly organised and led, can and will make a difference. We have saved lives and prevented injury as a direct result.
I have a reputation for being obsessed with speeding. I am not. I am obsessed with delivering results, and if you keep reading Clive Wolfendale’s Blog you will shortly see what we have done to deliver excellence in crime fighting as well, because we strive to make a difference in all aspects of police work. It is for this reason that we now have a detection rate of in excess of 46%, neck and neck with one other force in England and Wales, but head and shoulders clear of the rest of the field. He’ll explain in detail how we are doing it, but it is exactly the same principle - a refusal merely to cope, and a determination to win."
MilnerR said:
A few years ago it was all about road fatalities, now the KSI figure is being used almost exclusively. I wonder why this is? Is it because improved car design over the last 15 years has resulted in fewer serious injuries?
Or maybe that the definition of injured can be massaged... 
Deaths are not dropping in N Wales (on the contrary IIRC they are rising...).
Brunstrom would be fatuous and self-serving (no surprise there!) if he suggested that these results confirmed that his anti-speed jihad were responsible for any improvement.
It might have been, but there is no way of knowing.
First, we need to see the figures in context, which we do not have.
Why does North Wales have the most improvement, whilst other districts that zealously advocate the anti-speed dogma have done far less well in the period? Might it be because, in the '94-8 reference period, the NW numbers were egregiously high? We don't know.
He says that his force has cracked down on drink driving and using-a mobile-whilst-driving offences. How much have these efforts contributed to the improvement?
He admits that his forces have identified and concentrated on the most dangerous roads. One presumes that the LAs have addressed the reasons for that dangerousness to which Brunstrum refers: poor signage, poor sightlines, poor road surfaces. Surely these improvements would affect the KSI numbers.
As usual, another smokescreen from a politician to justify himself.
It might have been, but there is no way of knowing.
First, we need to see the figures in context, which we do not have.
Why does North Wales have the most improvement, whilst other districts that zealously advocate the anti-speed dogma have done far less well in the period? Might it be because, in the '94-8 reference period, the NW numbers were egregiously high? We don't know.
He says that his force has cracked down on drink driving and using-a mobile-whilst-driving offences. How much have these efforts contributed to the improvement?
He admits that his forces have identified and concentrated on the most dangerous roads. One presumes that the LAs have addressed the reasons for that dangerousness to which Brunstrum refers: poor signage, poor sightlines, poor road surfaces. Surely these improvements would affect the KSI numbers.
As usual, another smokescreen from a politician to justify himself.
catso said:
According to Brunstrom........
I have a reputation for being obsessed with speeding. I am not. I am obsessed with delivering results, and if you keep reading Clive Wolfendale’s Blog you will shortly see what we have done to deliver excellence in crime fighting as well
I have a reputation for being obsessed with speeding. I am not. I am obsessed with delivering results, and if you keep reading Clive Wolfendale’s Blog you will shortly see what we have done to deliver excellence in crime fighting as well
Good to see he notes speeding isn't a crime..... (Crime Fighting, As Well)..... So why spend so much police time on it.
Comparison of "Seriously Injured" Stats Recorded by Police and Hospitals
It appears that the disappearing SIs are all those that are not admitted to hospital - which one assumes are the least seriously injured.
So not only are deaths staying constant, but the most serious of the SIs are not declining much either! A very counter-intuitive trend in road safety if you ask me.
It appears that the disappearing SIs are all those that are not admitted to hospital - which one assumes are the least seriously injured.
So not only are deaths staying constant, but the most serious of the SIs are not declining much either! A very counter-intuitive trend in road safety if you ask me.
BigBob said:
Or could it be no one wants to go there anymore ...........
BB
BB
This isn't a joke. Near where I live the A140 Norwich/Ipswich trunk road has been reduced to a 50mph limit in all of Suffolk. I'm convinced that a side effect of this is that people travel other ways where possible ; I certainly do. I don't doubt that professional drivers will avoid notorious camera traps and the like as well where possible.
Simply quoting KSI figures is fatuous crap. The KSI figures on the M1 will be better than those on the B road past my house, whatever happens.
Any moderately intelligent statistician would know that the figure that you should quote is something like KSI per million miles driven. This is difficult (not impossible) to collect, but it certainly *is* possible to calculate the vehicle instances. As Scameras measure the speed, they are well able to count the number of vehicle movements.
Given that Scameras are always allocated with KSI in the vicinity, it should be feasible to return the success of an individual camera in terms of KSI per million vehicles measured. Not perfect, but far better than raw KSI.
It beggars belief that anyone can accept that KSIs are not fiddled. Virtually all the coppers blogs (except, doubtless Clive "Black Police Rap" Wolfendale's) detail regularly how the Police 'Service' fiddles its detention statistics, and the pressure put on the rank and file to produce 'good' figures.
Road miles travelled would be an interesting one to add too, and if the road users are local or frequent users.
Maybe people who used to go on holiday on unknown roads to Wales probably don't bother so often anymore, with cheaper holidays/flights abroad. Certainly a trend that is evident from the early/mid 90's to today.
Then car safety increases to compensate for any change in KSI, along with post accident medical care.
Those numbers are about as significant as the pirates vs global warming trend!
Dave
Maybe people who used to go on holiday on unknown roads to Wales probably don't bother so often anymore, with cheaper holidays/flights abroad. Certainly a trend that is evident from the early/mid 90's to today.
Then car safety increases to compensate for any change in KSI, along with post accident medical care.
Those numbers are about as significant as the pirates vs global warming trend!
Dave
NugentS said:
Safespeed !!!!
Sean
I'm right on it. I've done at least 18 hours on it out of the last 30. It's getting VERY interesting indeed. Let me just say two things at this stage:
- These figures dovetail into other figures giving strong evidence to something Brunstrom wouldn't want to see proven.
- Shhh. I've got to get this right and delivered ready for the press. In the meantime, the quieter the better.
Mr Whippy said:
Road miles travelled would be an interesting one to add too
National figures are here on this page. Causualties per thousand million passenger kilometres:
Year/Casuality Type, K, SI, Slight, All
1994-98 baseline average, 8.1, 99.8, 616.7, 724.6
1995, 8.4, 106.0, 608.6, 723.0
1996, 8.2, 100.9, 617.7, 726.8
1997, 8.0, 95.5, 624.5, 728.0
1998, 7.5, 89.1, 612.8, 709.3
1999, 7.3, 83.8, 594.8, 685.9
2000, 7.3, 81.7, 596.7, 685.7
2001, 7.3, 78.2, 574.9, 660.4
2002, 7.1, 73.9, 541.0, 622.0
2003, 7.2, 68.7, 516.7, 592.6
2004, 6.5, 62.4, 494.4, 563.3
2005, 6.4, 58.0, 478.3, 542.7
2005 change on baseline, -21%, -42%, -22%, -25%
See those amaxing disappearing SIs in action!
And for the reason Brunstrom has kindly provided the following:
Brunstrom said:
... we have had senior officers personally engaged in a very robust performance regime...
In other words senior officers get a bonus if the numbers look good - more to the point, they don't get the bonus if the numbers don't look good. Guess which figure is assessed when it comes to bonus time? PS: I've just noticed that since 2000 the slight injuries seem to be disappearing too. Not sure what to make of that just now - although it could easily be more of the same.
Edited by V8 Archie on Friday 22 December 09:33
BigBob said:
Or could it be no one wants to go there anymore ...........BB
I recently (summer 06) e-mailed the welsh Tourist Board and informed them that our family would NOT be visiting N Wales due to the almost nazi-style road policing and had a very polite letter back, apparently they do NOT approve of brownshirts tactics and these ARE reducing visitor numbers!!!
Mr Whippy said:
Maybe people who used to go on holiday on unknown roads to Wales probably don't bother so often anymore
From the North Wales STEAM initiative.
Tourist Days (Thousands), 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000
Serviced Accommodation, 172, 168, 161, 148, 134, 139
Non-Serviced Accommodation, 364, 365, 365, 298, 256, 299
SFR, 479, 477, 475, 472, 462, 461
Day Visitors, 1084, 1044, 1021, 911, 871, 852
Total, 2098, 2054, 2022, 1830, 1723, 1751
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