Statistics show crime reduction

[streaky]

BBC News said:

Recorded crime in England and Wales fell by 9% from July to September last year compared with the same period in the previous year.

The Home Office said there was a 4% rise in gun crime during the third quarter of 2007 compared with the same period in 2006.

There were 10,182 firearms offences in the year to September, compared with 9,755 in the previous year.

The number of recorded drug offences rose by 21% in the 2007 third quarter.

On the other hand, the British Crime Survey -much vaunted by Home Secretaries when it showed a contrary (i.e. downward) trend to that shown by the Home Office statistics - shows this year that crime remained "stable" - Streaky

[JustinP1]

Note:

You must emphasise the *recorded* element.

Maybe that is that 9% less people now bother reporting petty shop thefts or vandalism, as they know it is futile...

[TheGriffalo]

JustinP1 said:

Note:

You must emphasise the *recorded* element.

Maybe that is that 9% less people now bother reporting petty shop thefts or vandalism, as they know it is futile...

It took twenty minutes to record a simple vandalism incident recently. I almost lost the will to live by the time I had told the police my ethnic background etc. It takes someone of hardy disposition to actually be arsed to report a crime these days. No wonder recorded crime is down, I wonder what's happened to actual crime?

[tigger1]

As with many "statistical reports" (I use the term loosely) - there's the small matter of changes in the system over the study period. If the reporting of incidences has changed, or the coding of incidences, then the outcomes will appear to have changed when indeed they might be the same as at the start.

And when the Guv'ment is involved...it's got more spin on it than a top-spin volley with extra top spin, in a helicopter, on a turntable - owned by a spin doctor, singing "2 princes".

[Jasandjules]

JustinP1 said:

Note:

You must emphasise the *recorded* element.

Maybe that is that 9% less people now bother reporting petty shop thefts or vandalism, as they know it is futile...

Yep. That's exactly it.

I wonder how many acts of assault/vandalism etc.. are never reported.

[Chrispy Porker]

Most, I would say.
But that has always been the case.

[esselte]

Chrispy Porker said:

Most, I would say.
But that has always been the case.

But are they more in number now than before? (I know,difficult to answer by the nature of it)

[Chrispy Porker]

esselte said:

Chrispy Porker said:

Most, I would say.
But that has always been the case.

But are they more in number now than before? (I know,difficult to answer by the nature of it)

I don't know.
I don't believe in crime figures/detections.
It's all smoke and mirrors in my opinion.

I do know that the more officers you deploy in an area, the more recorded crime goes up. THis is for the obvious reason that people will stop you in the street and say
'I'm glad I saw you, I couldn't be bothered to ring up but...' and then tell you about all sorts of crime.

After a while this will die down if the police numbers are maintained, however if it is a short term deployment, crime figures will take a quick spike, without the chance to do anything constructive about them.

There has always been an underlying base of unreported crime.
And there always will be.

[JustinP1]

Chrispy Porker said:

esselte said:

Chrispy Porker said:

Most, I would say.
But that has always been the case.

But are they more in number now than before? (I know,difficult to answer by the nature of it)

I don't know.
I don't believe in crime figures/detections.
It's all smoke and mirrors in my opinion.

I do know that the more officers you deploy in an area, the more recorded crime goes up. THis is for the obvious reason that people will stop you in the street and say
'I'm glad I saw you, I couldn't be bothered to ring up but...' and then tell you about all sorts of crime.

After a while this will die down if the police numbers are maintained, however if it is a short term deployment, crime figures will take a quick spike, without the chance to do anything constructive about them.

There has always been an underlying base of unreported crime.
And there always will be.

I would say that this is a good overview.

It also exemplifies how if targets are used wrongly, they can be met, but that doesnt mean the overall quality of service has got better, it might be the opposite.

For example, if the government preach about their targets to 'reduce crime' one month, they target the chief inspectors or whoever else financially, or threaten their job if they cannot make it happen. If halfway through the period it is found that bobbies on the beat are increasing the 'crimes recorded' - what is going to happen!?

Yes, it may be a subtle shift and not stopping it altogether, but I think the outcome of these type of ill-informed targets it is that when the public often *want* the police they don't *seem* to be able to help. For the good honest members of the public this is all they want from the police.

The police on the beat unfortunately are forced to dance a different tune to one which could allow them to do their job in an effective way - that is effective in fighting crime, rather than just meeting targets.

[esselte]

Are there any figures for "crimes solved"...?

[Jasandjules]

Chrispy Porker said:

Most, I would say.
But that has always been the case.

Probably. But I think that these days less and less people bother to report "minor" crimes. None of my friends who have had cars broken into etc.. don't bother to report it. Sorry, I take that back, a few of them did the first time, and not since.

I am fairly convinced there was far less "general" crime years ago - could just be my experiences of life these days though..