2017 Classic Market
Discussion
Thoughts?
"the smart money is placing their assets elsewhere ahead of a massive collector-car market crash and everyone else is just too dumb to see it"
Read more: http://autoweek.com/article/classic-cars/2017-ariz...
"the smart money is placing their assets elsewhere ahead of a massive collector-car market crash and everyone else is just too dumb to see it"
Read more: http://autoweek.com/article/classic-cars/2017-ariz...
Norfolkandchance said:
The market may well be about to crash but I don't think the quote is representative of the tone of the article.
I agree, but it's attention grabbingDoes tell of a softening market in the high end and prices are substantially down across the board.
"If you needed more proof that the so-called "upper-middle market" is indeed softening, look no further than the next two sales. Gooding & Company slid from $43 million last year to $33.3 million in 2017"
RM Sotheby's showed up in Arizona with a solid catalog, but apparently it wasn't what freshly exuberant muscle-heads with an extra $50,000-$100,000 to burn were looking for -- hence another substantial slide, from $62.8 million to $53.7 million, brought about by a precipitous drop in average sale price
Edited by Candellara on Wednesday 25th January 17:29
lowdrag said:
OMG here we go again. The Investors Chronicle forecast a fair wind for the stock market on the Friday and the market fell 25% on Black Monday. How the hell can a journalist (of which I am one) know anything about the future? Call a clairvoyant.
I fail to see what journalism has to do with factual auction results?Gooding & Company slid from $43 million last year to $33.3 million in 2017"
hence another substantial slide, from $62.8 million to $53.7 million, brought about by a precipitous drop in average sale price
It'll be interesting to see how the auction market develops throughout 2017
What publications do you write for?Candellara said:
I fail to see what journalism has to do with factual auction results?
Gooding & Company slid from $43 million last year to $33.3 million in 2017"
hence another substantial slide, from $62.8 million to $53.7 million, brought about by a precipitous drop in average sale price
It'll be interesting to see how the auction market develops throughout 2017
Did those auction houses sell the same cars, in the same condition to the same people this year as they did last year? If not, how can that be a barometer of anything other than comparing one sale against another. My 2017 holiday to Singapore and Bali is costing more than my cruise from Corfu did last year, does that prove holidays are getting more expensive?Gooding & Company slid from $43 million last year to $33.3 million in 2017"
hence another substantial slide, from $62.8 million to $53.7 million, brought about by a precipitous drop in average sale price
It'll be interesting to see how the auction market develops throughout 2017
Factual results my backside....
Candellara said:
lowdrag said:
OMG here we go again. The Investors Chronicle forecast a fair wind for the stock market on the Friday and the market fell 25% on Black Monday. How the hell can a journalist (of which I am one) know anything about the future? Call a clairvoyant.
I fail to see what journalism has to do with factual auction results?Gooding & Company slid from $43 million last year to $33.3 million in 2017"
hence another substantial slide, from $62.8 million to $53.7 million, brought about by a precipitous drop in average sale price
It'll be interesting to see how the auction market develops throughout 2017
Also several “big number” cars failed to sell, which would have a marked effect on average sale price for the auction house concerned.
Given that the auctions only represent a small percentage of the classic cars that are sold worldwide, it seems that it would be hard to draw any firm conclusions from Arizona.
Sebring440 said:
Hold on -- YOU asked for "thoughts".
You don't like anyone else's thoughts?
I love everyone's thoughts :-) It seems it's a particularly popular area of debate / conversations rippling through all the sub forums as well.You don't like anyone else's thoughts?
Much has been talked about regarding "the market" and an anticipated slow down.
As expected, those with vested interests talk the market up but i think the consensus is that the market is definitely changing and many cars with grossly ambitious sticker prices from dealers not changing hands. Having spoken with many "dealers" there is a large degree of "concern" regarding stock not moving in the latter part of 2016 and where 2017 will take us
My own particular view is that the acceleration of the low to mid market is not sustainable and as such - will stall.
Stating a total auction sale value is irrelevant. We need to see the individual results of comparable cars. Also what happens at an auction in Arizona, won't necessarily impact directly on your local classic car dealer. Different cars, different market, different situation. It seems that the Dow Jones is now at a record high, so presumably some of the big investment money has gone in there, which can only be a good thing for the rest of us.
It was only a few weeks ago that we were all shaking our heads at the crazy high prices made at that Italian repossession haul auction.
It was only a few weeks ago that we were all shaking our heads at the crazy high prices made at that Italian repossession haul auction.
For me the more telling sign is quality stock - there isn't any!
Certainly in the things I'm interested in (Ferrari / Porsche / BMW from the 80s and 90s) there is hardly anything worth considering in the market. All of the auction stock is flawed - everything comes with a 'story' - and never a good one
In my rather bonkers world I've been looking for 1989 examples of a 930 Turbo LE, 930 flat nose, 3.2 Speedster and 3.2 ClubSport - I don't recall seeing any quality stock for over a year. Admittedly I'm only looking for Guards Red on black leather with red piping, but still...
Unless I'm missing it, constrained supply with keep values up but only in the specific cars that people really want - everything else should start to fall away (gently)
Certainly in the things I'm interested in (Ferrari / Porsche / BMW from the 80s and 90s) there is hardly anything worth considering in the market. All of the auction stock is flawed - everything comes with a 'story' - and never a good one
In my rather bonkers world I've been looking for 1989 examples of a 930 Turbo LE, 930 flat nose, 3.2 Speedster and 3.2 ClubSport - I don't recall seeing any quality stock for over a year. Admittedly I'm only looking for Guards Red on black leather with red piping, but still...
Unless I'm missing it, constrained supply with keep values up but only in the specific cars that people really want - everything else should start to fall away (gently)
That's an excellent point. If I was in your shoes I would be very hesitant to lay out 6 figures at an auction on a car you've only got to briefly look over and possibly drive around a car-park. You just wouldn't accept that as good enough from a dealer or even a private enthusiast owner.
You're looking for a top-notch car with full history that's been thoroughly checked and tested. Surely that's no too much to ask when considering vehicles like these, which were never exactly cheap to buy? They're probably all in collections or high-end dealers with astronomical asking prices, which are now even higher after that 12 months you've been searching.
I guess limiting your colour choice presents a problem with such small number built though.
You're looking for a top-notch car with full history that's been thoroughly checked and tested. Surely that's no too much to ask when considering vehicles like these, which were never exactly cheap to buy? They're probably all in collections or high-end dealers with astronomical asking prices, which are now even higher after that 12 months you've been searching.
I guess limiting your colour choice presents a problem with such small number built though.
Whether you are a proud owner of an expensive classic or a hopeful who is waiting for his dream car to become attainable the reality is that the car market has become a commoditised asset class. With tracker type funds having opened up this sector to a whole new type of 'investor' , there are many huge flows of money which can have exaggerated effects on price.
Add into the equation the fact that a multi million $ car can cross continents and be bought and sold on different sides of the Atlantic it would be naive to think that money launderers and tax avoiders do not participate in this asset class to move money.
With low interest rates and cheap finance it is easy to see how is has become self perpetuating but anyone who thinks the current market is a new phenomenon should just Google the Dutch tulip bulb price crash .... from the year 1637
Add into the equation the fact that a multi million $ car can cross continents and be bought and sold on different sides of the Atlantic it would be naive to think that money launderers and tax avoiders do not participate in this asset class to move money.
With low interest rates and cheap finance it is easy to see how is has become self perpetuating but anyone who thinks the current market is a new phenomenon should just Google the Dutch tulip bulb price crash .... from the year 1637
Nothing new here. This has been debated round in circles for the past two years.
The UK classic car market has been drifting sideways since H2 2015. Some say it is a peak, others say it is a pause...
The UK classic car market has been drifting sideways since H2 2015. Some say it is a peak, others say it is a pause...
- K500 Global Classic Car Index = -2% YoY in Jan 2017;
- Hagerty British Cars Index = -2% YoY in Dec 2016;
- HAGI Top Index = +9% YoY in Dec 2016 (compared with +15% YoY in Dec 2015).
A couple of auctions with average cars, so no wonder the headline figures were a bit lower than last year.
I was at Sothebys auction in Milan in November, and generally very poor cars did absolutely crazy money, so no slow down there!
Plus the other auctions i've followed seem to have higher and higher prices from one sale to the next.
I was at Sothebys auction in Milan in November, and generally very poor cars did absolutely crazy money, so no slow down there!
Plus the other auctions i've followed seem to have higher and higher prices from one sale to the next.
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