Are prices falling.
Discussion
I occasionally scan classifieds to see what things are worth and have been as surprised as everyone else at the values shooting up over the last few years.
Having a scan this morning on eBay showed what seemed like some sensibly priced classics.
Colin chapmans lotus esprit series 1 restored and at £47k
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Lotus-Esprit-S1-Colin-C...
And then a few 308 Ferrari’s under £50k, in other searches over the years it seems any classic Ferrari was now up over the 50-60k mark.
I’m no expert, and not even in the market. Just wondered if the tide has turned. There’s been talk of a bubble for years but like the housing bubble nobody really knows if it’s a bubble or simply supply and demand at work.
Having a scan this morning on eBay showed what seemed like some sensibly priced classics.
Colin chapmans lotus esprit series 1 restored and at £47k
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Lotus-Esprit-S1-Colin-C...
And then a few 308 Ferrari’s under £50k, in other searches over the years it seems any classic Ferrari was now up over the 50-60k mark.
I’m no expert, and not even in the market. Just wondered if the tide has turned. There’s been talk of a bubble for years but like the housing bubble nobody really knows if it’s a bubble or simply supply and demand at work.
Going by my bad memory of the late 80s crash which seemed like it was an overnight thing, there was a period after where some dealers/sellers didn't adjust their prices for a while so if there has been any burst of the bubble I'm guessing we will have a better idea at the end of the season perhaps in Sept/Oct.
Think at the moment it is very much a "swings and roundabouts" scenario, with asking prices and selling (or not selling) prices fluctuating wildly.
I tend to look at specific Marques/Models and have noted (and these are asking prices) that over the last two or three years, the general price for an early Integrale has doubled from £8000 to £16000. Later models have stratospheric rises.
A "baby" Elan has remained pretty much static or risen slightly from £33K to £36K but there are a few on the market that don't look quite right at £25K now. In contrast the +2 Elan seems to be rising quickly to meet it, from £8K to £16K now.
E46 M3 seem static over the last couple of years apart from specific models and a few low mileage cars
TVR Chimaera now climbing slowly to meet the much pricier but similar spec Griffith.
The earlier TVR Wedge 350i has risen from around £5K to £7k but the rarer 390 etc now closing in fast on the Chimaera.
Merc R129 500SL prices slowly rising, the earlier R107 not so much. Both seem a bargain if in decent condition.
Merc 320CE Cabrio prices have totally flumexed me. with a chap on here struggling to sell his excellent example for £8500 whilst similar models being advertised for £15K and a car through auction last year at close to £12k!
E30 M3 (why did I sell mine) now over £40K and well out of my price range.
Renault GTA, a decent car will now set you back over £7k probably more but 3 or 4 years ago £2500 would have got you one.
I think in general prices are now stabilising, General enthusiasts simply cannot afford the current asking prices. People have been buying, having seen prices rising and thought "lets have some of this" rather than the paltry interest rates at the bank or the risk of the stock markets which are also faltering now.
Like most enthusiasts I keep looking for the right car for me, but am conscious that I might get my fingers burnt if the prices drop. Not because I will lose money as I am not intending to sell for profit but because I could have bought the car I want for less.
The other thing to consider with regard to the increasing (or not) prices is the running or maintaining costs. A TVR Chimaera for instance can still be had for £10K BUT it'll probably need a new chassis or chassis repair and or be a Cat C or D insurance car. Similarly an R129 can still be had for £6 or 7K but may need another £4k spent to bring it up to standard. So buying a "classic" for profit doesn't always work ot like you expect.
You are only here once, buy what you like and enjoy it, or at least buy something you can use every day. Don't buy a museum piece and park it away collecting dust.
I tend to look at specific Marques/Models and have noted (and these are asking prices) that over the last two or three years, the general price for an early Integrale has doubled from £8000 to £16000. Later models have stratospheric rises.
A "baby" Elan has remained pretty much static or risen slightly from £33K to £36K but there are a few on the market that don't look quite right at £25K now. In contrast the +2 Elan seems to be rising quickly to meet it, from £8K to £16K now.
E46 M3 seem static over the last couple of years apart from specific models and a few low mileage cars
TVR Chimaera now climbing slowly to meet the much pricier but similar spec Griffith.
The earlier TVR Wedge 350i has risen from around £5K to £7k but the rarer 390 etc now closing in fast on the Chimaera.
Merc R129 500SL prices slowly rising, the earlier R107 not so much. Both seem a bargain if in decent condition.
Merc 320CE Cabrio prices have totally flumexed me. with a chap on here struggling to sell his excellent example for £8500 whilst similar models being advertised for £15K and a car through auction last year at close to £12k!
E30 M3 (why did I sell mine) now over £40K and well out of my price range.
Renault GTA, a decent car will now set you back over £7k probably more but 3 or 4 years ago £2500 would have got you one.
I think in general prices are now stabilising, General enthusiasts simply cannot afford the current asking prices. People have been buying, having seen prices rising and thought "lets have some of this" rather than the paltry interest rates at the bank or the risk of the stock markets which are also faltering now.
Like most enthusiasts I keep looking for the right car for me, but am conscious that I might get my fingers burnt if the prices drop. Not because I will lose money as I am not intending to sell for profit but because I could have bought the car I want for less.
The other thing to consider with regard to the increasing (or not) prices is the running or maintaining costs. A TVR Chimaera for instance can still be had for £10K BUT it'll probably need a new chassis or chassis repair and or be a Cat C or D insurance car. Similarly an R129 can still be had for £6 or 7K but may need another £4k spent to bring it up to standard. So buying a "classic" for profit doesn't always work ot like you expect.
You are only here once, buy what you like and enjoy it, or at least buy something you can use every day. Don't buy a museum piece and park it away collecting dust.
^^^^^
Good post especially your last sentence. Problem is for us car enthusiasts it’s the non enthusiast with plenty of spare money that creates the price bubble. Or speculators who do buy and store for profit. Nothing any of us can do to stop this.
On the other hand rising prices as such has the benefit of saving some cars by restoration, because they are ‘now’ worth it, financially perhaps.
Good post especially your last sentence. Problem is for us car enthusiasts it’s the non enthusiast with plenty of spare money that creates the price bubble. Or speculators who do buy and store for profit. Nothing any of us can do to stop this.
On the other hand rising prices as such has the benefit of saving some cars by restoration, because they are ‘now’ worth it, financially perhaps.
I think some are in decline, but others are still rising.
Usually the ones I want!
A lot of the vastly over priced cars at "specialist" dealers are still for sale, more than a year after first being advertised, but dealers still keep putting the prices up.
Just look in the seriously overpriced thread in General Gassing.
But in the same breath, I've seen some cars advertised at one dealer, then sold to another, with a massive price jump, then they have sold them on again!
Some people, in my opinion, really have no clue what something is worth, and I wonder where the money comes from.
A lot of more normal, say higher mileage, less pristine cars are still selling, and jumping.
I've seen a few cars bought at one auction, re appear at another, or even on eBay, and make 20-50% more.
Similarly, I've seen cars appear in Car and Classic, or eBay, turn up at auctions and make quite a bit more money.
Auction fever still seems to come through though.
Usually the ones I want!
A lot of the vastly over priced cars at "specialist" dealers are still for sale, more than a year after first being advertised, but dealers still keep putting the prices up.
Just look in the seriously overpriced thread in General Gassing.
But in the same breath, I've seen some cars advertised at one dealer, then sold to another, with a massive price jump, then they have sold them on again!
Some people, in my opinion, really have no clue what something is worth, and I wonder where the money comes from.
A lot of more normal, say higher mileage, less pristine cars are still selling, and jumping.
I've seen a few cars bought at one auction, re appear at another, or even on eBay, and make 20-50% more.
Similarly, I've seen cars appear in Car and Classic, or eBay, turn up at auctions and make quite a bit more money.
Auction fever still seems to come through though.
Falling globally. Auction results are showing stable or falling prices for aircooled Porsches, 300SLs and the like. Exceptional cars with provenance still ok but a couple of D types at The Arizona auctions did not make reserve.
We are also seeing new car sales looking bleak as interest rates are trending up.
Don’t think fall will be drastic but right now any purchase is for enjoyment rather than investment I would think.
We are also seeing new car sales looking bleak as interest rates are trending up.
Don’t think fall will be drastic but right now any purchase is for enjoyment rather than investment I would think.
I think there are different markets out there with a few different bands of pricing which often don't affect each other.
You've got 'normal' classic cars, like Rover P6's or Triumph 2000's, Spitfires, MGB's etc, etc, these seem to be creeping up, with only mint ones going for top dollar.
You could say these sort of cars top out around the £10k mark.
Then you get the slightly more exotic stuff like Lancia Fulvias, Alfa's, Lotus, some classic Fords etc etc , these seem to have shot up up over the last few years with many seeming to have doubled in price and sort of top out in the £25-£30k region
These first two band of cars seem, to me, to more often bought by people who like the cars they buy, and use them or show them. They seem to less liable to some of the more wild fluctuations in the market caused by 'investors'.
Then you have the 'investor' level of pricing, and this band of cars seem to be subject to some of the biggest drops in prices, and some of the biggest rises.
Strangely this band of pricing is the one that seems to make the headlines in magazine articles and endless discussions on forums, yet for the vast majority of enthusiasts it doesn't really affect them.
My Peugeot 304 cabriolet is worth about the same today as when I bought it 4 years ago, maybe a little more. I think it'll just depend on the day when I come to sell.
I fairly recently bought a Mercedes W123 coupe, again prices have been fairly static over the last 18 months or so while I've looking.
Looking online at various forums and facebook groups, prices being asked and achieving all seem to be fairly static for a lot of classics.
Does it really affect your average enthusiast if Ferraris drop below £50k, or 'D' types aren't making reserve at auction?
Sorry for the long post, but this is just my view of a car market where one sector seems to get all the discussion, even though in general, it doesn't affect the vast majority.
Some interesting observations here - and I'd like to add the perspective of imported classic 1964-68 Ford Mustangs.
Asking prices have shot up since the value of the pound sank post Referendum, fuelled by UK dealers who source the cars in the US. They are paying more for the cars so they're passing the price hike on to buyers here in the UK - or trying to. Many private sellers are following their lead and the result is what I think are ludicrously inflated asking prices. Fastback Mustangs in particular (even basket cases) are being adverised at ridiculous sums. This is one market that is very likely to crash IMHO - probably benefitting the genuine enthusiasts who aren't in it for the money.
Asking prices have shot up since the value of the pound sank post Referendum, fuelled by UK dealers who source the cars in the US. They are paying more for the cars so they're passing the price hike on to buyers here in the UK - or trying to. Many private sellers are following their lead and the result is what I think are ludicrously inflated asking prices. Fastback Mustangs in particular (even basket cases) are being adverised at ridiculous sums. This is one market that is very likely to crash IMHO - probably benefitting the genuine enthusiasts who aren't in it for the money.
Funnily enough a mate and I were talking about this subject at work this morning. He has around £15k to £20k to spend on a classic at the moment and is thinking about Delta Integrales, Audi Quattros and one or two older cars, but is wondering whether or not to use it as part of a house deposit. He wishes he'd made a definite decision a couple of years ago when those cars were around half of his intended budget, I suppose it's a case of picking your moment when the chance arises.
Some of the cars I'm actively looking at now have almost doubled in the last three or four years, pre-impact bumper 911s and 912s, Jensen Interceptors, Alfa Giulia 105 Series Coupes and the like. The top end stuff is way past my budget now but I still feel within striking distance of good, usable Lotus Europas (just about anyway), Marcos GTs and Volvo P1800s. I've enjoyed all of the classics I've owned over the last ten years or so but sometimes think if I hadn't spent it all on P5s, P6s and early Mini Coopers one after the other, I'd probably have an Interceptor, 911 or 308GT4 by now.
Some of the cars advertised have definitely been sitting around for more than a year, some of the Rovers and Jags on sale over two years ago when I bought my S2 XJ6 are still looking for new owners, with rises in the asking price over that time. There's a Mini dealer down in Kent who still has a lot of stock at inflated prices which were there when I visited the place back in June 2010 to view a Mk2 Cooper, back then it was £9995, today the same car hasn't moved an inch and is up at £19,995.
Some of the cars I'm actively looking at now have almost doubled in the last three or four years, pre-impact bumper 911s and 912s, Jensen Interceptors, Alfa Giulia 105 Series Coupes and the like. The top end stuff is way past my budget now but I still feel within striking distance of good, usable Lotus Europas (just about anyway), Marcos GTs and Volvo P1800s. I've enjoyed all of the classics I've owned over the last ten years or so but sometimes think if I hadn't spent it all on P5s, P6s and early Mini Coopers one after the other, I'd probably have an Interceptor, 911 or 308GT4 by now.
Some of the cars advertised have definitely been sitting around for more than a year, some of the Rovers and Jags on sale over two years ago when I bought my S2 XJ6 are still looking for new owners, with rises in the asking price over that time. There's a Mini dealer down in Kent who still has a lot of stock at inflated prices which were there when I visited the place back in June 2010 to view a Mk2 Cooper, back then it was £9995, today the same car hasn't moved an inch and is up at £19,995.
crankedup said:
^^^^^
Good post especially your last sentence. Problem is for us car enthusiasts it’s the non enthusiast with plenty of spare money that creates the price bubble. Or speculators who do buy and store for profit. Nothing any of us can do to stop this.
On the other hand rising prices as such has the benefit of saving some cars by restoration, because they are ‘now’ worth it, financially perhaps.
Thank you and yes you are correct, higher end values make more cars restoreable but to counter that a proper restoration is still often more than the final value so many cars are bodged rather than restored. Labour costs are high.Good post especially your last sentence. Problem is for us car enthusiasts it’s the non enthusiast with plenty of spare money that creates the price bubble. Or speculators who do buy and store for profit. Nothing any of us can do to stop this.
On the other hand rising prices as such has the benefit of saving some cars by restoration, because they are ‘now’ worth it, financially perhaps.
It is now impossible to write off many cars because the rebuild cost is far less than the value. My two cars are way past the point of value/rebuild costs. I have no idea which type of car would be the fulcrum here but as an extreme example a friend has a real C & D-type. He insures them for £300,000 each when racing, which is the maximum rebuild cost in his estimation. No matter what the sale price is, he doesn't care, because he isn't selling. I suppose, thinking on, maybe a TR5 couldn't be written off now? The rebuild cost would be less than the value? Maybe wrong, but the PH massive will work it out.
lowdrag said:
It is now impossible to write off many cars because the rebuild cost is far less than the value. My two cars are way past the point of value/rebuild costs. I have no idea which type of car would be the fulcrum here but as an extreme example a friend has a real C & D-type. He insures them for £300,000 each when racing, which is the maximum rebuild cost in his estimation. No matter what the sale price is, he doesn't care, because he isn't selling. I suppose, thinking on, maybe a TR5 couldn't be written off now? The rebuild cost would be less than the value? Maybe wrong, but the PH massive will work it out.
Unless your friend has an unusual policy will not the insurance principle of 'averaging' apply to reduce his payouts on a repair? If I understand correctly this would reduce the payout on a repair claim by the same factor as the principal value is underinsured. If, say, a £3million car is underinsured by an owner who has declared a value of £300k will not the insurers be entitled to wriggle out of 90% of a repair claim? In practical terms I doubt the insurers will make a fuss if the claim is for a new windscreen or maybe a few thousand for a new door skin where someone fairly junior can sign off. However, If the claim is for a material amount more senior people will need to sign off and will be looking for ways to wriggle out.a8hex said:
I suspect the situation is different for racing coverage and that you can buy cover for upto this amount as the maximum payout.
Correct. This not a standard policy but a maximum racing damage cover. I don't think he would be so silly as to insure the cars for £500,000 for fire damage, but more likely £10 million.A friend/colleague/manager in my company has a friend who is in the "mid-range" classics business. Apparently his (not stupidly priced) stock hasn't moved for the best part of twelve months.
It seems that most higher-end punters willing to pay well for interesting classics are now looking more than ever for provenance, originality and top condition, so anything slightly lacking is not currently moving.
It seems that most higher-end punters willing to pay well for interesting classics are now looking more than ever for provenance, originality and top condition, so anything slightly lacking is not currently moving.
carboy2017 said:
any idea how much an austin 7 saloon in an an average running condition will cost
Anywhere from about £2k upwards, (personally I wouldn't pay more than £5k for a saloon but I like them "lived in" rather than shiney), early ones (RK) are more than later ones (Ruby).There is a nice RP on ebay at the moment for £5,500, (if you like yellow!)
POORCARDEALER said:
Market is in general decline with some excpetions. Auction houses have been refusing entries from vendors with unrealistic ideas of thier cars values, many having failed to shift them in the classifieds for many months.
Good news for the enthusiast, not so good for the "investor"
I noticed the results of the auction the other week at IWM Duxford......I didn't count, but a LOT of cars didn't sell, so assumed these had unrealistic reserve prices set, and owners weren't going to budge to sell, as they are 'convinced' that they are worth more than the market is now willing to pay for them, or they think their condition B/C car is worth what condition A cars are selling for?Good news for the enthusiast, not so good for the "investor"
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