Values Discussion
Discussion
To be clear; I'm not panicking about the ICE 'ban' because, of course, it isn't a ban.
But. The classic car market (30 years old plus) is arguably declining as there are fewer new enthusiasts joining the club than there used to be. Bonkers speculation is, again arguably, disguising that to some extent.
Over the next ten years, ULEZ zones are going to increase, as well as expand, and I suspect it's inevitable that classics won't always enjoy exemptions to them.
As various governmental measures ensure that using an ICE car becomes more difficult (as it surely will), the future for cars which, by then, will be 50, 60 or 70 years old is uncertain.
Do we think they will retain value as objets d'art or as weekend playthings, or do we think a decline in demand will see values fall. Or both.
Discuss.
NB: I don't think I have a thesis and I'm not looking for jibes about tin foil hats and other supercilious digs. This is intended to be a discussion, pure and simple
But. The classic car market (30 years old plus) is arguably declining as there are fewer new enthusiasts joining the club than there used to be. Bonkers speculation is, again arguably, disguising that to some extent.
Over the next ten years, ULEZ zones are going to increase, as well as expand, and I suspect it's inevitable that classics won't always enjoy exemptions to them.
As various governmental measures ensure that using an ICE car becomes more difficult (as it surely will), the future for cars which, by then, will be 50, 60 or 70 years old is uncertain.
Do we think they will retain value as objets d'art or as weekend playthings, or do we think a decline in demand will see values fall. Or both.
Discuss.
NB: I don't think I have a thesis and I'm not looking for jibes about tin foil hats and other supercilious digs. This is intended to be a discussion, pure and simple
vpr said:
Huge following in the classic car world.
I’m not worried
I think the market will strengthen as it’s no fun driving mode. Cars and it’s about to get even less fun with big brother gadgets in the cars monitoring every move and limiting your speed
All of which I agree with. But as time marches on, cars of a certain age decline in desirability. There's less demand for 1930s cars today than there was 30 years ago, for example.I’m not worried
I think the market will strengthen as it’s no fun driving mode. Cars and it’s about to get even less fun with big brother gadgets in the cars monitoring every move and limiting your speed
I suspect that upcoming changes will accelerate the decline in popularity of today's classics. I'm not talking about new cars today that will eventually become classic; I'm talking about stuff that's already 'classic'..
I'm not too bothered, my old car is "only" worth £5000 max. I run it on Super unleaded too, so the new E10 fuel doesn't affect me either.
I had hoped to pass the car onto my petrolhead daughter, but I'm going to get her insured on it now, so that she can enjoy it straight away.
I do feel for those who have very valuable cars, they might be having sleeples nights.
I understand Porsche are developing synthetic fuel, so there might be light on the horizon.
For those that are into '80's rock, the song Red Barchetta by Rush is pretty apt nowadays.
I had hoped to pass the car onto my petrolhead daughter, but I'm going to get her insured on it now, so that she can enjoy it straight away.
I do feel for those who have very valuable cars, they might be having sleeples nights.
I understand Porsche are developing synthetic fuel, so there might be light on the horizon.
For those that are into '80's rock, the song Red Barchetta by Rush is pretty apt nowadays.
Interesting topic, but I can't see all values collapsing - after all there are still a few fans of steam engines!
But I think as time goes by values of 50s and 60s cars will fall a bit like 30s and 40s cars already have, because most of us get excited by the cars we grew up with. Prices of 70s and early 80s Fords seem to bear out that trend!
But I think as time goes by values of 50s and 60s cars will fall a bit like 30s and 40s cars already have, because most of us get excited by the cars we grew up with. Prices of 70s and early 80s Fords seem to bear out that trend!
Mr Tidy said:
Interesting topic, but I can't see all values collapsing - after all there are still a few fans of steam engines!
But I think as time goes by values of 50s and 60s cars will fall a bit like 30s and 40s cars already have, because most of us get excited by the cars we grew up with. Prices of 70s and early 80s Fords seem to bear out that trend!
To a certain extent, yes, but the London-Brighton run suggests a deep love for anything old, that'll last for a few decades yet. Unless the pandemic has created a generation of bedwetters that will want to ban anything with emissions.But I think as time goes by values of 50s and 60s cars will fall a bit like 30s and 40s cars already have, because most of us get excited by the cars we grew up with. Prices of 70s and early 80s Fords seem to bear out that trend!
Regarding fuel, look at all the old aircraft that’s lovingly maintained and still flying. Combustion engines will be the emergency use when batteries fail or forgot to charge. Value wise on classic cars varies all the time, sure some cars are in vogue then out of vogue. But enthusiasts are everywhere. Good/mint condition always sells well. It’s the overpriced restorations you have to be careful of, which means car values creep up to try and recoup those costs if selling on.
You never know, there may be a future where electric cars are retrofitted with combustion engines because lithium becomes too rare to use as a battery?!
You never know, there may be a future where electric cars are retrofitted with combustion engines because lithium becomes too rare to use as a battery?!
Mr Tidy said:
Interesting topic, but I can't see all values collapsing - after all there are still a few fans of steam engines!
But I think as time goes by values of 50s and 60s cars will fall a bit like 30s and 40s cars already have, because most of us get excited by the cars we grew up with. Prices of 70s and early 80s Fords seem to bear out that trend!
Agree to an extent, run of the mill cars of the 30’s and 40’s have plopped off but the cream of those years are worth big bucks and continue to climb. But I think as time goes by values of 50s and 60s cars will fall a bit like 30s and 40s cars already have, because most of us get excited by the cars we grew up with. Prices of 70s and early 80s Fords seem to bear out that trend!
So maybe in time the 50’s and 60’s Family wagons and the like will fall out of favour, the nice stuff will be ok
I’m thinking of selling the XK140 FHC at the moment. It’s potentially a lot of money tied up in one thing. It’s more costly to run than my Vitesse which only owes me £5.5 k over 15yrs. I also believe the number of people interested in the Jag is a diminishing group.
Somebody in years to come might be willing to spend a £10 grand on owning the Vitesse just because but the step up to £60k for the Jag is a whole different prospect.
I do though accept that some people have more money than Midas.
Somebody in years to come might be willing to spend a £10 grand on owning the Vitesse just because but the step up to £60k for the Jag is a whole different prospect.
I do though accept that some people have more money than Midas.
Doofus said:
I'm not worried about fuel scarcity. Just speculating on how much of a market 'adjustment' there will be in the run up to 2030.
Any potential market adjustment will be as a result of the 'investor' not the enthusiast element of the classic car world.And who knows what they'll do......
I've already spent way more on mine than it'll ever be worth at the top of its market (whatever or whenever that is/was) so, I couldn't care less what the 'market' does.....I'll try and enjoy it for as long as I'm physically able to, and after that point I won't care how much its worth...or isn't.
aeropilot said:
Any potential market adjustment will be as a result of the 'investor' not the enthusiast element of the classic car world.
And who knows what they'll do......
I think this is my POV. Investors today don't really drive their cars (generalisation), so in theory, their behaviour won't change as it becomes progressively harder to drive them.And who knows what they'll do......
And, as you say, us enthusiasts aren't driven by value, although if/as the value of their classic falls over the next 10-15 years, they may think twice about how much money they put into it.
Mikebentley said:
I’m thinking of selling the XK140 FHC at the moment. It’s potentially a lot of money tied up in one thing. It’s more costly to run than my Vitesse which only owes me £5.5 k over 15yrs. I also believe the number of people interested in the Jag is a diminishing group.
Somebody in years to come might be willing to spend a £10 grand on owning the Vitesse just because but the step up to £60k for the Jag is a whole different prospect.
I do though accept that some people have more money than Midas.
I think this is much of it. Many think that the market for old fossil fuel cars could shrink to the size of those who currently run steam engines. Youngsters around me don’t even want cars now, so unlikely to be lusting after them when they’re in the money later in life. The prediction therefore is low demand and cost and scarcity of parts will make ICE cars increasingly less relevant and less of an attractive ownership proposition.Somebody in years to come might be willing to spend a £10 grand on owning the Vitesse just because but the step up to £60k for the Jag is a whole different prospect.
I do though accept that some people have more money than Midas.
I don't think the interest in classic cars is in decline.
I read an article the other day that said there are more classic car restoration businesses now than ever before in the UK, and that because of the competition, and the more widely available information about classic cars, their restoration, along with openly available customer reviews - They're all having to make sure they work to the highest standards.
In addition, the article went on to state that the classic car market has never had so many suppliers of quality parts, for all manner of makes and models, than it has today (it did also note that there are plenty of "sub-standard" parts coming out of India and China, and that you really need to do your homework before ordering parts).
Basically, the article said that the classic car market is big business now, in all manner of areas (not just the "high end", rare model cars), and it's a market that some of the original (surviving) manufacturers are now paying attention to, re-manufacturing many obsolete parts.
Yes the markets have dropped - But, on top of the normal rise and fall of the classic car market, that happens constantly, we've just been through Brexit, and all the doubts that has raised, quickly followed by a World wide pandemic, that had result in mass deaths, and mass job losses, which has created more doubt and worry about the future.
Some people have decided that they need to sell their previously treasured classic car now, because they need to pay bills, keep businesses going, or are paying out money on a car they never actually use.
Then there are some people who bought cars purely as an investment, who, on seeing the markets starting to drop back, have decided to sell their cars, to minimise their loses.
The good thing at least (for owners of classic cars, but not so much for buyers), is that unlike the late 80's when the World markets were hit with uncertainty, we haven't seen an overnight collapse of the classic car market, where tens/hundreds of Thousands were wiped off the value of cars, overnight.
As for all the doom and gloom about ICE car sales being banned from 2030 - Come 2031, petrol powered cars aren't suddenly going to disappear.
Yes, there will be a decline, naturally, but it's going to take many years after 2030 before manufacturing petrol becomes uneconomical for the oil companies.
The biggest threat to classic cars when it comes to fuel, will be the ever increasing levels of Ethanol in the fuel (and other additives that may be mandated in the future), but already, the classic car industry is finding ways to ensure cars can be modified to use the new fuels.
The other big issue will be, all the owners of electric cars who will treat classic car owners as though they are the evil cousins of the four horseman of the apocalypse!
Brace yourself for shouts and abuse along the lines of: "You're killing our planet" (completely overlooking the fact that their brand new electric car has caused far more damage to the environment, due to it's carbon footprint from being manufactured, that the classic car will have done in it's lifetime!)
I read an article the other day that said there are more classic car restoration businesses now than ever before in the UK, and that because of the competition, and the more widely available information about classic cars, their restoration, along with openly available customer reviews - They're all having to make sure they work to the highest standards.
In addition, the article went on to state that the classic car market has never had so many suppliers of quality parts, for all manner of makes and models, than it has today (it did also note that there are plenty of "sub-standard" parts coming out of India and China, and that you really need to do your homework before ordering parts).
Basically, the article said that the classic car market is big business now, in all manner of areas (not just the "high end", rare model cars), and it's a market that some of the original (surviving) manufacturers are now paying attention to, re-manufacturing many obsolete parts.
Yes the markets have dropped - But, on top of the normal rise and fall of the classic car market, that happens constantly, we've just been through Brexit, and all the doubts that has raised, quickly followed by a World wide pandemic, that had result in mass deaths, and mass job losses, which has created more doubt and worry about the future.
Some people have decided that they need to sell their previously treasured classic car now, because they need to pay bills, keep businesses going, or are paying out money on a car they never actually use.
Then there are some people who bought cars purely as an investment, who, on seeing the markets starting to drop back, have decided to sell their cars, to minimise their loses.
The good thing at least (for owners of classic cars, but not so much for buyers), is that unlike the late 80's when the World markets were hit with uncertainty, we haven't seen an overnight collapse of the classic car market, where tens/hundreds of Thousands were wiped off the value of cars, overnight.
As for all the doom and gloom about ICE car sales being banned from 2030 - Come 2031, petrol powered cars aren't suddenly going to disappear.
Yes, there will be a decline, naturally, but it's going to take many years after 2030 before manufacturing petrol becomes uneconomical for the oil companies.
The biggest threat to classic cars when it comes to fuel, will be the ever increasing levels of Ethanol in the fuel (and other additives that may be mandated in the future), but already, the classic car industry is finding ways to ensure cars can be modified to use the new fuels.
The other big issue will be, all the owners of electric cars who will treat classic car owners as though they are the evil cousins of the four horseman of the apocalypse!
Brace yourself for shouts and abuse along the lines of: "You're killing our planet" (completely overlooking the fact that their brand new electric car has caused far more damage to the environment, due to it's carbon footprint from being manufactured, that the classic car will have done in it's lifetime!)
Doofus said:
Lotusgone said:
Doofus said:
Yeah, but Rush have always been s
te. 
Quick to judge, quick to anger, slow to understand...te. 
Sorry if I offended, but prog has never been my bag.
But back to topic.
sale prices for 30's and 50's stuff mostly stagnating 60's t 90's stuff mostly still on the rise.
From what I've had a look at the last 2 days, many classic cars are selling for frankly, bonkers money at ACA. Lockdown / furlough cash maybe? Some went below guide price but most over.
The Fiesta Supersport sold for £23k plus fees is one example. It was listed at H+H classic auction 2 years go for £18k - £22k plus and didn't sell. The restoration was 10 years ago.
A 1999 Mondeo ST200 with 112k miles on the clock went for £4500 plus fees...... I don't get the Ford 'scene.'
A 1999 Bentley Arnage Green Label with 89k miles sold for £16,200 including the fees. There are cheaper ones out there with lower mileages at traders who will supply a warranty!!
A 1975 Alfa Junior 1600 went for £19k plus fees when the guide price was £8k - £10k....
And that's aside to what people now seem willing to pay for rusty signs and oil pouring jugs!!.
Results not published yet but here's a link:
https://angliacarauctions.co.uk/classic/sat-27th-s...
The Fiesta Supersport sold for £23k plus fees is one example. It was listed at H+H classic auction 2 years go for £18k - £22k plus and didn't sell. The restoration was 10 years ago.
A 1999 Mondeo ST200 with 112k miles on the clock went for £4500 plus fees...... I don't get the Ford 'scene.'
A 1999 Bentley Arnage Green Label with 89k miles sold for £16,200 including the fees. There are cheaper ones out there with lower mileages at traders who will supply a warranty!!
A 1975 Alfa Junior 1600 went for £19k plus fees when the guide price was £8k - £10k....
And that's aside to what people now seem willing to pay for rusty signs and oil pouring jugs!!.
Results not published yet but here's a link:
https://angliacarauctions.co.uk/classic/sat-27th-s...
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