Market trends, starting to top out?
Discussion
Watching the prices of classics on the whole and noticing the rise in property values I do wonder if the classic car market will start topping out soon if it hasn't already.
There are quite a few very nice cars for sale, and some prices are bold to say the least, £200k DBS 6 cylinder stands out.
I wonder if now property has started moving again if money will flow back in that direction.
Or, is the rise in property prices only going to fuel further bullish behaviour in the car trade?
Thoughts?
There are quite a few very nice cars for sale, and some prices are bold to say the least, £200k DBS 6 cylinder stands out.
I wonder if now property has started moving again if money will flow back in that direction.
Or, is the rise in property prices only going to fuel further bullish behaviour in the car trade?
Thoughts?
I thought that as we came out of the restrictions folk would either be going back to work and have no time OR be made redundant and need the cash.
However so far that hasn't been the case, or so it seems.
I've seen asking prices for certain models up by 50% 75% even 100% over the last 18 months.
That is asking price though, I've no idea what the seeling price is except at auction.
What I am seeing is stuff at the new high price not selling and returning to the market or being withdrawn (to return in a year at the (hopefully for the seller) ever increasing price?)
A lot of cars I could have afforded 18 month ago I can no longer afford.
However so far that hasn't been the case, or so it seems.
I've seen asking prices for certain models up by 50% 75% even 100% over the last 18 months.
That is asking price though, I've no idea what the seeling price is except at auction.
What I am seeing is stuff at the new high price not selling and returning to the market or being withdrawn (to return in a year at the (hopefully for the seller) ever increasing price?)
A lot of cars I could have afforded 18 month ago I can no longer afford.
I’m not convinced the overall market is going up tbh and think the peak was probably around 4 years ago. I think it’s been surprisingly robust during the pandemic but, bar the normal odd result, not frothy.
I think the main increases are normal trend cycles - modern classics ascending in line with changing tastes somewhat balanced by decline elsewhere.
I think the next 10 years or so will be fascinating as the world moves properly towards ‘smart transportation’. I suspect the classic car market will possibly grow if anything but will change in nature.
I think the main increases are normal trend cycles - modern classics ascending in line with changing tastes somewhat balanced by decline elsewhere.
I think the next 10 years or so will be fascinating as the world moves properly towards ‘smart transportation’. I suspect the classic car market will possibly grow if anything but will change in nature.
This is personal theory only but perhaps with many people working from home they are ploughing the savings into fun cars. I’d certainly be tempted to spend much less on a daily if it was hardly being used and put the difference into a classic.
Likewise EV’s, the big incentive for many is the fuel saving but if folks mileages have tumbled the EVs appeal much less, unless company car of course with the massive BIK incentives.
Likewise EV’s, the big incentive for many is the fuel saving but if folks mileages have tumbled the EVs appeal much less, unless company car of course with the massive BIK incentives.
@ettore makes a good point, a lot of daft asking prices seem to go up year on year.
There is a E28 BMW 528i in poverty spec that's been for sale for 10 years at least and is consistently £2k ahead of the market.
I think a lot of cars were bought as 'investments' and the owners are hoping to flip, when the reality is long term ownership and a large degree of good luck is the only way to make money on old cars for the individual who doesn't trade.
There is a E28 BMW 528i in poverty spec that's been for sale for 10 years at least and is consistently £2k ahead of the market.
I think a lot of cars were bought as 'investments' and the owners are hoping to flip, when the reality is long term ownership and a large degree of good luck is the only way to make money on old cars for the individual who doesn't trade.
I've followed the market and most classics appeared to be falling in price, pre covid, from a c.2016 peak. There were plenty of exceptions of course, such as fast Fords.
In the last year I'd suggest prices have risen c.20% due to people amassing surplus cash pushing up demand. With the economy growing currently at 7% I'm not sure a new peak has been reached yet.
A general assumption was that when the government wanted its money back the market would adjust to its previous downward trajectory. Now I'm not so sure and those like me that have waited for this to happen I think are going to continue to miss out.
In the last year I'd suggest prices have risen c.20% due to people amassing surplus cash pushing up demand. With the economy growing currently at 7% I'm not sure a new peak has been reached yet.
A general assumption was that when the government wanted its money back the market would adjust to its previous downward trajectory. Now I'm not so sure and those like me that have waited for this to happen I think are going to continue to miss out.
Sub-£100k stuff is very popular with online auctions like Collecting Cars and 'live' auctions such as Silverstone. Whether these are really 'investments' is debatable - inheritance from Auntie Flo spent on a bit of fun rather than 1% in a bank. My money would not go on a pristine Vauxhall Victor on this basis - get it right last year on the stock market and very big profits.
On the more expensive front, the 'investors' have largely left the classic car market leaving 2014-2015 as the peak. Unlikely to return in the short term. Daytona values are typical, via www.k500.com Big guys still buying and selling $$$$ cars for the long term now, not expecting 20%pa that was possible on anything 2011-2014. DB Astons badly hit - oversupply of RHD cars.
On the more expensive front, the 'investors' have largely left the classic car market leaving 2014-2015 as the peak. Unlikely to return in the short term. Daytona values are typical, via www.k500.com Big guys still buying and selling $$$$ cars for the long term now, not expecting 20%pa that was possible on anything 2011-2014. DB Astons badly hit - oversupply of RHD cars.
Ouch - who'd put 500k into a falling value car, apart from those people who really just want one to drive & enjoy before they're in the cold damp ground - which is fair enough but rare animal i'd guess.
I'm expat living in KL and approaching 60 and I do fancy a particular car to enjoy. So I'll buy into a falling market BUT i'd have to enjoy a good hard wrestle over the price
... which is why the curve continues to drop obvs.
I'm expat living in KL and approaching 60 and I do fancy a particular car to enjoy. So I'll buy into a falling market BUT i'd have to enjoy a good hard wrestle over the price
... which is why the curve continues to drop obvs.Edited by ggdrew on Wednesday 12th May 15:32
That's useful,
I haven't had a look at much of the data. I'm 12 months away from being in the position where I am looking to buy a car not an investment, so really just hoping to get bang for my buck as a pervious poster said.
My ideal situation is a price crash due to lack of confidence. Maybe lucky.
If the top of the market is softening by that much now hopefully my target zone at £20-50K will have also softened.
It annoys me that so many non-enthusiasts have bought into the whole investment thing, sure it's been great for the genuine enthusiast who see's his won car rise, and for the classic restoration trade, and some cars have been saved that never would have, but when lifelong enthusiasts are shut out of certain brands and cars because of rapid inflation it is disappointing.
I haven't had a look at much of the data. I'm 12 months away from being in the position where I am looking to buy a car not an investment, so really just hoping to get bang for my buck as a pervious poster said.
My ideal situation is a price crash due to lack of confidence. Maybe lucky.
If the top of the market is softening by that much now hopefully my target zone at £20-50K will have also softened.
It annoys me that so many non-enthusiasts have bought into the whole investment thing, sure it's been great for the genuine enthusiast who see's his won car rise, and for the classic restoration trade, and some cars have been saved that never would have, but when lifelong enthusiasts are shut out of certain brands and cars because of rapid inflation it is disappointing.
The last paragraph of the above post is spot on. I’ve been a Lotus owner on and off since 1975 and have owned my M100 Elan for 22 years. I’d love another classic Elan like my first S4, or any Elan model really, but the current prices will have to drop a long way to my budget. Very frustrating as I expect many have become garage queens and hardly ever get out on the road.
Nyloc20 said:
The last paragraph of the above post is spot on. I’ve been a Lotus owner on and off since 1975 and have owned my M100 Elan for 22 years. I’d love another classic Elan like my first S4, or any Elan model really, but the current prices will have to drop a long way to my budget. Very frustrating as I expect many have become garage queens and hardly ever get out on the road.
If you're such a fan surely you could have bought one in the 30+ years before the prices went up ?Can't stop market forces.
The market has boomed and bust a couple of times over the last 30 years. I think the economy and then EV will impact what happens next. If it busts again there could be many fantastic condition Elans etc flooding the market at prices affordable to those who would not have had the budget to keep them so well maintained.
The market has boomed and bust a couple of times over the last 30 years. I think the economy and then EV will impact what happens next. If it busts again there could be many fantastic condition Elans etc flooding the market at prices affordable to those who would not have had the budget to keep them so well maintained.
Stick Legs said:
It annoys me that so many non-enthusiasts have bought into the whole investment thing, sure it's been great for the genuine enthusiast who see's his own car rise, and for the classic restoration trade, and some cars have been saved that never would have ......
Yeh, but what did the Romans ever do for us ?I demand the right to complain about cars I chose not to buy and now can't afford
stevewak said:
Sub-£100k stuff is very popular with online auctions like Collecting Cars and 'live' auctions such as Silverstone. Whether these are really 'investments' is debatable - inheritance from Auntie Flo spent on a bit of fun rather than 1% in a bank. My money would not go on a pristine Vauxhall Victor on this basis - get it right last year on the stock market and very big profits.
On the more expensive front, the 'investors' have largely left the classic car market leaving 2014-2015 as the peak. Unlikely to return in the short term. Daytona values are typical, via www.k500.com Big guys still buying and selling $$$$ cars for the long term now, not expecting 20%pa that was possible on anything 2011-2014. DB Astons badly hit - oversupply of RHD cars.
Steve, Can anyone get access to this data. I'm particularly interest in Countach QV values (not anniversary models).On the more expensive front, the 'investors' have largely left the classic car market leaving 2014-2015 as the peak. Unlikely to return in the short term. Daytona values are typical, via www.k500.com Big guys still buying and selling $$$$ cars for the long term now, not expecting 20%pa that was possible on anything 2011-2014. DB Astons badly hit - oversupply of RHD cars.
GoodOlBoy said:
If you're such a fan surely you could have bought one in the 30+ years before the prices went up ?
I was 13 30 years ago, my tuck money didn't extend that far.In the intervening 30 years I've had some great cars thanks, Jaguar XJ-S's BMW 635CSi's but never quite made an Aston Martin or Bentley as they price they were available at was always one step ahead of my buying power and then there's the small matter of buying a house and building a career to worry about. But cheers for your contribution.
Jonny TVR said:
Steve, Can anyone get access to this data. I'm particularly interest in Countach QV values (not anniversary models).
For an annual sub, anyone can... https://k500.com/the-guide is a list of the cars. The yellow dots have the date of sale and chassis number as a mouseover. You can also search by chassis and compare cars and change dates. Dollar conversion on the day. Here is the Countach QV chart since 1984:
Stick Legs said:
I was 13 30 years ago, my tuck money didn't extend that far.
In the intervening 30 years I've had some great cars thanks, Jaguar XJ-S's BMW 635CSi's but never quite made an Aston Martin or Bentley as they price they were available at was always one step ahead of my buying power and then there's the small matter of buying a house and building a career to worry about. But cheers for your contribution.
My comment wasn't addressed to you, but apologies if I've caused offence to you or anyone else.In the intervening 30 years I've had some great cars thanks, Jaguar XJ-S's BMW 635CSi's but never quite made an Aston Martin or Bentley as they price they were available at was always one step ahead of my buying power and then there's the small matter of buying a house and building a career to worry about. But cheers for your contribution.
My own opinion is that the vast majority of classic cars are owned by enthusiasts, not investors. Also that the vast majority of classic cars remain relatively affordable, probably more so than several years ago.
Lotus were mentioned, I've always rather liked the Plus 2,again in my opinion. it's undervalued rather than over. Likewise the Esprit. Plenty of British sportscars remain attainable, even undervalued. Classic saloons seem criminally under-appreciated in many cases.
As for garage queens - almost all classic cars, whether owned by enthusiasts or investors, do very few miles per year, mostly to shows or drives out in the country on a sunny day. There's nothing wrong with that.
Certainly cars at the top end of the market have moved out of the reach of most of us, that's as much to do with changing perceptions as it is with investors. Vintage Bentleys and D type Jags were affordable at one time - because no-one wanted them. Those buying Cosworths and BMW's for huge prices nowadays are as much enthusiasts as they are investors. The two things are not mutually exclusive.
I'm passionate about the classic car hobby, it should be inclusive with room for all, including the minute percentage that are classed as "investors".
If I had a tenner for everyone who says "I've always wanted one of those but now I can't afford it" I'd go out and buy them one.
Yertis said:
GoodOlBoy said:
If you're such a fan surely you could have bought one in the 30+ years before the prices went up ?
Maybe he had other more important commitments. Gassing Station | Classic Cars and Yesterday's Heroes | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff