Where have relatively recent cars actually gone?
Discussion
I was driving about yesterday and it got me thinking . Where have they actually physically gone ?
We had a Citroen DS3 in 2012 , there were absolutely tons of them at the time .I don't think I have seen one on the road in recent memory.Same for C3 same for Jeep Cherokee. The list goes on and on.
I am not thinking about Sierra and Cavalier, I appreciate that now 30 or 40 years ago . I just don't see 12 year old cars now.
Assuming finance PCP etc has replaced car buying habits, albeit I have never done it . Where physically have all those cars gone ?
We had a Citroen DS3 in 2012 , there were absolutely tons of them at the time .I don't think I have seen one on the road in recent memory.Same for C3 same for Jeep Cherokee. The list goes on and on.
I am not thinking about Sierra and Cavalier, I appreciate that now 30 or 40 years ago . I just don't see 12 year old cars now.
Assuming finance PCP etc has replaced car buying habits, albeit I have never done it . Where physically have all those cars gone ?
Data from 2022.
Push that peak forward a couple of years for 2024.
There is a very similar scrappage peak for 100k miles too.
Basically those missing 2012 cars were scrapped.
I saw same pattern with my old Golf Mk6.
2011 > Mk6 rare. Mk4, Mk5 common.
2015 > Mk6 common. Mk4, Mk5 thinning out. Mk7 rare.
2022 > Mk6 thinning out. Hardly see Mk4 or Mk5. Mk7, 7.5 common.
There seems to be a common misconception on PH that cars will go 200k miles and last 20 years with very little other than routine servicing and maintenance when the statistics don’t support that.
Edited by wyson on Saturday 25th January 08:21
wyson said:
There seems to be a common misconception on PH that cars will go 200k miles and last 20 years with very little other than routine servicing and maintenance when the statistics don’t support that.
I think there's a bit of both sides on that. It's probably easier than ever to be able to find parts for most cars and if you're willing to put some money and your own time into it, you probably can keep a lot of things going fairly economically.It's more where someone isn't DIY inclined that it gets much more likely for things to get scrapped.
As an example with a golf, a 2010 car with say 120k miles. If that had say a clutch failure, but at the same time some brakes and tyres needing replaced, DIY it would take a chunk of time, but probably wouldn't be that expensive to get sorted.
Getting it all done at a garage though is very likely to be close to the value of the car, and liable to just be scrapped "as it's not really worth it"
And I'd say even if fairly well experienced with DIY, if rust does kick in it can be a definite killer as a lot just don't have welding experience (myself included)
Edited by Ian974 on Saturday 25th January 08:54
wyson said:
Data from 2022.
Push that peak forward a couple of years for 2024.
There is a very similar scrappage peak for 100k miles too.
Basically those missing 2012 cars were scrapped.
I saw same pattern with my old Golf Mk6.
2011 > Mk6 rare. Mk4, Mk5 common.
2015 > Mk6 common. Mk4, Mk5 thinning out. Mk7 rare.
2022 > Mk6 thinning out. Hardly see Mk4 or Mk5. Mk7, 7.5 common.
There seems to be a common misconception on PH that cars will go 200k miles and last 20 years with very little other than routine servicing and maintenance when the statistics don’t support that.
Edited by ARHarh on Saturday 25th January 11:15
cliffords said:
I was driving about yesterday and it got me thinking . Where have they actually physically gone ?
We had a Citroen DS3 in 2012 , there were absolutely tons of them at the time .I don't think I have seen one on the road in recent memory.Same for C3 same for Jeep Cherokee. The list goes on and on.
I am not thinking about Sierra and Cavalier, I appreciate that now 30 or 40 years ago . I just don't see 12 year old cars now.
Assuming finance PCP etc has replaced car buying habits, albeit I have never done it . Where physically have all those cars gone ?
I think it has always been this way and it depends where you live too.We had a Citroen DS3 in 2012 , there were absolutely tons of them at the time .I don't think I have seen one on the road in recent memory.Same for C3 same for Jeep Cherokee. The list goes on and on.
I am not thinking about Sierra and Cavalier, I appreciate that now 30 or 40 years ago . I just don't see 12 year old cars now.
Assuming finance PCP etc has replaced car buying habits, albeit I have never done it . Where physically have all those cars gone ?
I have a DS3 still and there are two more in our works car park too. Come to the Isle of Wight and there are loads of older cars on the road.
Ian974 said:
I think there's a bit of both sides on that. It's probably easier than ever to be able to find parts for most cars and if you're willing to put some money and your own time into it, you probably can keep a lot of things going fairly economically.
It's more where someone isn't DIY inclined that it gets much more likely for things to get scrapped.
As an example with a golf, a 2010 car with say 120k miles. If that had say a clutch failure, but at the same time some brakes and tyres needing replaced, DIY it would take a chunk of time, but probably wouldn't be that expensive to get sorted.
Getting it all done at a garage though is very likely to be close to the value of the car, and liable to just be scrapped "as it's not really worth it"
And I'd say even if fairly well experienced with DIY, if rust does kick in it can be a definite killer as a lot just don't have welding experience (myself included)
There's some truth in that, but part of the reason it's easy to find parts for cars is that loads of them get scrapped quite young.It's more where someone isn't DIY inclined that it gets much more likely for things to get scrapped.
As an example with a golf, a 2010 car with say 120k miles. If that had say a clutch failure, but at the same time some brakes and tyres needing replaced, DIY it would take a chunk of time, but probably wouldn't be that expensive to get sorted.
Getting it all done at a garage though is very likely to be close to the value of the car, and liable to just be scrapped "as it's not really worth it"
And I'd say even if fairly well experienced with DIY, if rust does kick in it can be a definite killer as a lot just don't have welding experience (myself included)
Edited by Ian974 on Saturday 25th January 08:54
But the average age of UK cars is increasing, which means we're buying insufficient new ones to keep up with demand for used cars.
Lots of >10 year old cars are out there, they are just not doing huge mileages so you don't see them out and about so often.
I wonder how many cars are tipped over the edge of a 'scrap it' decision by 'small' things like body electrics?
A mate buys and repairs a few cars part time, he recently broke a car which just needed a gearbox and some brake work, because it was slightly tatty and had 'electrical gremlins'. And someone wanted some parts.
The Consumer Rights Act also depresses trade in values, and that's what a trader is looking at.
I think post 2010(ish) cars are very much designed to be recycled not repaired, it could be the longevity of cars has peaked?
I also know of rust-free. apparently mechanically sound cars getting scrapped due to failing the MOT on emissions.
wyson said:
Data from 2022.
Push that peak forward a couple of years for 2024.
There is a very similar scrappage peak for 100k miles too.
Basically those missing 2012 cars were scrapped.
I saw same pattern with my old Golf Mk6.
2011 > Mk6 rare. Mk4, Mk5 common.
2015 > Mk6 common. Mk4, Mk5 thinning out. Mk7 rare.
2022 > Mk6 thinning out. Hardly see Mk4 or Mk5. Mk7, 7.5 common.
There seems to be a common misconception on PH that cars will go 200k miles and last 20 years with very little other than routine servicing and maintenance when the statistics don’t support that.
Edited by wyson on Saturday 25th January 08:21
Car are full of electronics these days.
Modules that fail and are no longer available means that you play around with a second hand unit and then you've got to get it coded to the car.
Beyond economic repair comes much, much earlier these days.
There's also talk of new regulation to force car repairs to be made with genuine new parts. So the manufacturers can push us into new ones much more easily. All under the guise of security.
So older cars without complex electronics will continue to exist. But new cars will never have the chance to get old enough to be considered a classic.
Modules that fail and are no longer available means that you play around with a second hand unit and then you've got to get it coded to the car.
Beyond economic repair comes much, much earlier these days.
There's also talk of new regulation to force car repairs to be made with genuine new parts. So the manufacturers can push us into new ones much more easily. All under the guise of security.
So older cars without complex electronics will continue to exist. But new cars will never have the chance to get old enough to be considered a classic.
Cars like the Citroen are cheap white goods Cars, often bought by people with minimal interest in cars.
Not only are they not very robust but as they get older maintenance will be skimped.
You'll see more older Volvos, Mercedes, Land Rovers etc. They tend to last longer and the owners are more invested in them.
Not only are they not very robust but as they get older maintenance will be skimped.
You'll see more older Volvos, Mercedes, Land Rovers etc. They tend to last longer and the owners are more invested in them.
Watcher of the skies said:
Cars like the Citroen are cheap white goods Cars, often bought by people with minimal interest in cars.
Not only are they not very robust but as they get older maintenance will be skimped.
You'll see more older Volvos, Mercedes, Land Rovers etc. They tend to last longer and the owners are more invested in them.
Plus the mass market manufacturers, can't wait to put parts on NLA once over 10 years old, so again, the likes of PTS/Renault/Vauxhall-Opel/Ford etc.,etc which further creates problems for the cheaper cars once over 10 years old, especially those that are by then on their 4th or 5th plus owners.Not only are they not very robust but as they get older maintenance will be skimped.
You'll see more older Volvos, Mercedes, Land Rovers etc. They tend to last longer and the owners are more invested in them.
As said, you see plenty of 15-20 year old BMW's, Mercs, bigger Audi's etc, still being used as daily's.
Thing is, I bet a lot of those 12-15 year cars in breakers, are not that rusty, and have plenty of life left in the engines, and are often there because of failed electrical items.
wyson said:
There seems to be a common misconception on PH that cars will go 200k miles and last 20 years with very little other than routine servicing and maintenance when the statistics don’t support that.
Some do! Edited by wyson on Saturday 25th January 08:21
My 19 year old E90 BMW 330i is still going strong after 127K miles.
A quick look at howmanyleft suggests 90% of those DS Citroens are still on the road?
There are cars you rarely 'see' because you don't notice them.
There are others you rarely notice because they are mostly parked up out of sight.
There are some cars you notice disproportionately, because they tend to get driven in a 'noticeable' way.
Whether that's with a noisy exhaust, or badly parked near a school or carving through the traffic.
As so many new UK cars are fleet sales, some of those might have noticeably short lives due to racking up the miles in the first two or three years?
There is geography too, a disproportionate number of fairly new Suzukis around here, because the local garage used to have a franchise.
There are cars you rarely 'see' because you don't notice them.
There are others you rarely notice because they are mostly parked up out of sight.
There are some cars you notice disproportionately, because they tend to get driven in a 'noticeable' way.
Whether that's with a noisy exhaust, or badly parked near a school or carving through the traffic.
As so many new UK cars are fleet sales, some of those might have noticeably short lives due to racking up the miles in the first two or three years?
There is geography too, a disproportionate number of fairly new Suzukis around here, because the local garage used to have a franchise.
DS3s are common as muck here in France.
I think that's because a DS3 is still an 8 - 15,000€ car here, which means that they are still worth repairing when they go wrong even if it's an expensive repair (which it often is), whereas I guess in the UK they are getting to be worthless.
There's also a Citroën dealer in almost every reasonably sized village or town keeping them alive.
2nd hand cars are cheap in the UK which kills the less popular ones much faster. My Citroën C5 for example would be a £500 car in UK but it's 7,000€ here.
I think that's because a DS3 is still an 8 - 15,000€ car here, which means that they are still worth repairing when they go wrong even if it's an expensive repair (which it often is), whereas I guess in the UK they are getting to be worthless.
There's also a Citroën dealer in almost every reasonably sized village or town keeping them alive.
2nd hand cars are cheap in the UK which kills the less popular ones much faster. My Citroën C5 for example would be a £500 car in UK but it's 7,000€ here.
A lot of modern cars are scrapped due to electrical.problems which can be expensive and time consuming to trace and repair leading to bills more than the car is worth.
Another problem.is getting some parts. I was needing a power steering pipe for a 2014 Peugeot, local Peugeot dealer part no longer produced by Peugeot not available. Searching the Internet the only result I got was possibly available from a company in Russia but 3 month wait. Pay 50% up front and no guarantee it was actually available. Luckily we have a good local hydraulic repairs company who could cut out and crimp in a new piece of pipe to replace damaged section.
Another problem.is getting some parts. I was needing a power steering pipe for a 2014 Peugeot, local Peugeot dealer part no longer produced by Peugeot not available. Searching the Internet the only result I got was possibly available from a company in Russia but 3 month wait. Pay 50% up front and no guarantee it was actually available. Luckily we have a good local hydraulic repairs company who could cut out and crimp in a new piece of pipe to replace damaged section.
Most of the comments above are correct.
Cars are more complex so your average DIYer can no longer fix
Labour costs at a garage soon mount up
Electronic parts are expensive, s/h parts may not work either
Emissions fail, rubs chin, intake of breath...
Folk just like new(er) models.
I'm 71, remember when cars failed MoT on rust at 6 years old, and the engines were knackered at 70K miles (Viva HA at 40K according to Derek Mathewson)
Engines now will run for 200K miles BUT need cam belts replacing etc, add that cost to say 2 tyres, oil & filter, pollen filter, air filter, etc and the bill reaches the point where it's easier to scrap and buy newer.
At my age I'm reaching the stage where I don't want to be lying on my back with a gearbox on my chest but still OK to do general servicing, brakes, etc but two of our current fleet (2013 Volvo and 2017 MINI) are at the stage where I need to shove them in for a service, computer reset, no dip stick, so bloody complex under the bonnet.
And I won't talk about getting at the engine on the Boxster. Even the nearest Porsche indie doesn't like working on Boxsters....
Cars are more complex so your average DIYer can no longer fix
Labour costs at a garage soon mount up
Electronic parts are expensive, s/h parts may not work either
Emissions fail, rubs chin, intake of breath...
Folk just like new(er) models.
I'm 71, remember when cars failed MoT on rust at 6 years old, and the engines were knackered at 70K miles (Viva HA at 40K according to Derek Mathewson)
Engines now will run for 200K miles BUT need cam belts replacing etc, add that cost to say 2 tyres, oil & filter, pollen filter, air filter, etc and the bill reaches the point where it's easier to scrap and buy newer.
At my age I'm reaching the stage where I don't want to be lying on my back with a gearbox on my chest but still OK to do general servicing, brakes, etc but two of our current fleet (2013 Volvo and 2017 MINI) are at the stage where I need to shove them in for a service, computer reset, no dip stick, so bloody complex under the bonnet.
And I won't talk about getting at the engine on the Boxster. Even the nearest Porsche indie doesn't like working on Boxsters....
I had a 2011 Kia Ceed that cost £2k 2 years ago.
It's first MOT in my hands resulted in a £400 bill for an exhaust and a couple of other small things but last summer it sprung a fuel leak in the fuel tank and that combined with requiring a complete set of back brakes plus the smell that it also had an exhaust leak at the very front (not replaced previously) would've left me with a £1800 bill at a trustworthy back street garage (i.e. NOT an expensive main dealer).
Even then there's no guarantee I would've then had expense free motoring for any length of time as the suspension was a bit harsh and noisy and it appeared to sit down slightly at the left rear.
Rather than go to the aggro of selling as spares or repair for a few £00 I scrapped it for a guaranteed £200 and thus avoided the nuisance of dealing with Joe Public.
It was an otherwise solid looking car though.
It's first MOT in my hands resulted in a £400 bill for an exhaust and a couple of other small things but last summer it sprung a fuel leak in the fuel tank and that combined with requiring a complete set of back brakes plus the smell that it also had an exhaust leak at the very front (not replaced previously) would've left me with a £1800 bill at a trustworthy back street garage (i.e. NOT an expensive main dealer).
Even then there's no guarantee I would've then had expense free motoring for any length of time as the suspension was a bit harsh and noisy and it appeared to sit down slightly at the left rear.
Rather than go to the aggro of selling as spares or repair for a few £00 I scrapped it for a guaranteed £200 and thus avoided the nuisance of dealing with Joe Public.
It was an otherwise solid looking car though.
OP here . I drove today from Horsham to Pulborough to Petworth and back to Storrington today . About 50 miles. West Sussex
Wife in car and we played what is the oldest car we spotted.
For the younger ones of you having been married 35 years , I know how to create exciting and innovative games to keep the sparkle going. Number plate spotting and recording the detail is right up there .
The result was 2011 as far as we could see was the oldest , quite a few personal plates . Jaguar seemed to be the 2011 winning car. Most common was 19 albeit I think it was 22 but I don't want to argue with her , after she agreed to play . Lots and lots of 23 and 24.
No Citroen C3 or Jeep Cherokee.
Wife in car and we played what is the oldest car we spotted.
For the younger ones of you having been married 35 years , I know how to create exciting and innovative games to keep the sparkle going. Number plate spotting and recording the detail is right up there .
The result was 2011 as far as we could see was the oldest , quite a few personal plates . Jaguar seemed to be the 2011 winning car. Most common was 19 albeit I think it was 22 but I don't want to argue with her , after she agreed to play . Lots and lots of 23 and 24.
No Citroen C3 or Jeep Cherokee.
cliffords said:
OP here . I drove today from Horsham to Pulborough to Petworth and back to Storrington today . About 50 miles. West Sussex
Wife in car and we played what is the oldest car we spotted.
For the younger ones of you having been married 35 years , I know how to create exciting and innovative games to keep the sparkle going. Number plate spotting and recording the detail is right up there .
The result was 2011 as far as we could see was the oldest , quite a few personal plates . Jaguar seemed to be the 2011 winning car. Most common was 19 albeit I think it was 22 but I don't want to argue with her , after she agreed to play . Lots and lots of 23 and 24.
No Citroen C3 or Jeep Cherokee.
Love that, our favourite game on a long drive is guess the celebrity with the personalised plate. DS 3 would obviously be driven by Delia Smith, for example......Wife in car and we played what is the oldest car we spotted.
For the younger ones of you having been married 35 years , I know how to create exciting and innovative games to keep the sparkle going. Number plate spotting and recording the detail is right up there .
The result was 2011 as far as we could see was the oldest , quite a few personal plates . Jaguar seemed to be the 2011 winning car. Most common was 19 albeit I think it was 22 but I don't want to argue with her , after she agreed to play . Lots and lots of 23 and 24.
No Citroen C3 or Jeep Cherokee.
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