Tory victory could still happen..
Discussion
Maybe it could just happen this year (please!)
It's turkey twizzler time for Labour
(Filed: 11/03/2005)
The Restoration has started. Or so the more Left-wing newspapers think. This week there have been a series of articles in the Guardian and the Independent suggesting that the Tories could actually win the next general election.
Rail Europe
New Labour and the New Model Army could be on the way out. Tony Blair could be about to suffer the fate of Oliver Cromwell, another reformer who promised a glorious new start but failed to deliver.
Britain has had enough of this man who told us that things can only get better before trampling over Parliament and living in far greater style than his predecessors. The Cavaliers are on the way back.
The columnist Polly Toynbee says that Michael Howard's handful of men are busy chopping Mr Blair to pieces. Martin Kettle, says: "Are you thinking what I'm thinking about the election? The Tories could conceivably win." The Independent asks: "In secret how many will vote for the Tories?"
Andrew Rawnsley of the Observer says this scaremongering is all a ploy to terrify Labour's core voters back to the polling booths.
But it's not just commentators and Labour backbenchers who sound concerned.
One former aide of Tony Blair told me: "We thought this was going to be like the Tories' 1987 election - a piece of cake, it's turning into one of those disgusting turkey twizzlers. It could be a 1970 situation when we went into the polls ahead but still lost."
A former shadow Cabinet minister is more blunt: "It's a disaster, the Tories have nicked all our campaigning tactics."
Most worrying for Labour, people have stopped being embarrassed about the idea of voting Tory. One Labour card-carrying father I know asked me this week whether he should place a bet on a Tory win.
Everything has been turned upside down in the past few weeks. Suddenly it is John Reid who is being mauled by Jeremy Paxman, rather than Mr Howard.
It is the Labour Party that is accused of racism for its posters depicting the Tory leader as a sinister Fagin.
It is the Labour minister Charles Clarke whose ill-thought-through terror measures appear to contain "something of the night" about them.
Doctors and teachers are queueing up to chastise not the Tories, but Labour, booing the nice, hard-working Ruth Kelly who has become the new Virginia Bottomley.
Alan Milburn is now receiving more flak than William Hague had to endure during the 2001 campaign.
And the smart documentaries now are not about the once hapless Tory party, but about Mr Blair and Alastair Campbell, such as Peter Kosminsky's drama about David Kelly, to be shown next week.
In the past fortnight Labour has repeatedly been upstaged by the Opposition before it has had time to launch its mini manifestos on health and education.
Both parties have drawn up their own pre-election grids, but at the moment the Tories are ahead in this game of noughts and crosses.
Even Mr Campbell sounds defensive when he says that the Tories are tactically clever but strategically stupid.
The Tories to their amazement, can't put a foot wrong in the media. Stories about party divisions are buried on page 37 of the tabloids.
Meanwhile the early evening news leads with pictures of Mr Howard helping various women sort out their problems. His plans for everything from cleaner hospitals to sexually transmitted diseases to speed humps are taken seriously.
The party has been showing its touchy-feely side, as well as talking about immigration. There is no overall vision.
But as David Cameron, the Tory director of policy made clear in a speech this week, the party is not going to be hung up on ideology, it's all about practical Conservatism now.
Lynton Crosby, the new campaign supremo, with his easy-going Australian optimism has galvanised the Tory campaign. While Labour, through rictus grins, try to force Britain to be happy, Mr Howard for the first time sounds naturally confident and relaxed with his brief.
Even the Liberal Democrats have been unnerved by the Tories' success. They have stopped sending their crack teams into marginal Tory seats at weekends, and started sending them to their own marginals such as Newbury.
The likelihood of Mr Blair losing the next election is still slim. But the Prime Minister must be beginning to worry about his majority. What if it goes down to 30 or 25?
Remember John Major and the few "bastards" who made his life hell when he barely had a majority.
If Labour's support drops dramatically Mr Blair will lose all those nice new Labour MPs who won their seats in 1997. Instead he will be left with the bolshie old Labour bastards.
It's not what Gordon Brown wants either. By all means give Tony a bloody nose but don't pulp the entire party.
So what can Labour do?
1. Keep those two indistinguishable bruisers, John Reid and Charles Clarke, off the air waves. Bring back Gordon Brown, it's petty not to bother showing him the manifesto.
2. Don't keep terrorising the country about the Tories. Voters are not idiots. They know that more people won't die in hospitals just because they vote Tory, and whatever you say, they are never going to believe that the Tories are soft on suicide bombers.
3. The Budget next week is your most obvious chance to seize the agenda but it's going to need to be something big such as help for the elderly with council tax bills, transferrable tax allowances for stay-at-home mothers and raising the income tax threshold.
And what do the Tories need to do? More of the same. A few well-researched human interest stories, some good policy announcements, a bit of populism, a little high-mindedness, as much on health and education as on immigration and crime. They could also move on to school food and transport.
There are still 55 days until the general election, Labour has time to turn this election around but this time the Tories don't look as though they are going to give them any help.
Taken from www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2005/03/11/do1102.xml
It's turkey twizzler time for Labour
(Filed: 11/03/2005)
The Restoration has started. Or so the more Left-wing newspapers think. This week there have been a series of articles in the Guardian and the Independent suggesting that the Tories could actually win the next general election.
Rail Europe
New Labour and the New Model Army could be on the way out. Tony Blair could be about to suffer the fate of Oliver Cromwell, another reformer who promised a glorious new start but failed to deliver.
Britain has had enough of this man who told us that things can only get better before trampling over Parliament and living in far greater style than his predecessors. The Cavaliers are on the way back.
The columnist Polly Toynbee says that Michael Howard's handful of men are busy chopping Mr Blair to pieces. Martin Kettle, says: "Are you thinking what I'm thinking about the election? The Tories could conceivably win." The Independent asks: "In secret how many will vote for the Tories?"
Andrew Rawnsley of the Observer says this scaremongering is all a ploy to terrify Labour's core voters back to the polling booths.
But it's not just commentators and Labour backbenchers who sound concerned.
One former aide of Tony Blair told me: "We thought this was going to be like the Tories' 1987 election - a piece of cake, it's turning into one of those disgusting turkey twizzlers. It could be a 1970 situation when we went into the polls ahead but still lost."
A former shadow Cabinet minister is more blunt: "It's a disaster, the Tories have nicked all our campaigning tactics."
Most worrying for Labour, people have stopped being embarrassed about the idea of voting Tory. One Labour card-carrying father I know asked me this week whether he should place a bet on a Tory win.
Everything has been turned upside down in the past few weeks. Suddenly it is John Reid who is being mauled by Jeremy Paxman, rather than Mr Howard.
It is the Labour Party that is accused of racism for its posters depicting the Tory leader as a sinister Fagin.
It is the Labour minister Charles Clarke whose ill-thought-through terror measures appear to contain "something of the night" about them.
Doctors and teachers are queueing up to chastise not the Tories, but Labour, booing the nice, hard-working Ruth Kelly who has become the new Virginia Bottomley.
Alan Milburn is now receiving more flak than William Hague had to endure during the 2001 campaign.
And the smart documentaries now are not about the once hapless Tory party, but about Mr Blair and Alastair Campbell, such as Peter Kosminsky's drama about David Kelly, to be shown next week.
In the past fortnight Labour has repeatedly been upstaged by the Opposition before it has had time to launch its mini manifestos on health and education.
Both parties have drawn up their own pre-election grids, but at the moment the Tories are ahead in this game of noughts and crosses.
Even Mr Campbell sounds defensive when he says that the Tories are tactically clever but strategically stupid.
The Tories to their amazement, can't put a foot wrong in the media. Stories about party divisions are buried on page 37 of the tabloids.
Meanwhile the early evening news leads with pictures of Mr Howard helping various women sort out their problems. His plans for everything from cleaner hospitals to sexually transmitted diseases to speed humps are taken seriously.
The party has been showing its touchy-feely side, as well as talking about immigration. There is no overall vision.
But as David Cameron, the Tory director of policy made clear in a speech this week, the party is not going to be hung up on ideology, it's all about practical Conservatism now.
Lynton Crosby, the new campaign supremo, with his easy-going Australian optimism has galvanised the Tory campaign. While Labour, through rictus grins, try to force Britain to be happy, Mr Howard for the first time sounds naturally confident and relaxed with his brief.
Even the Liberal Democrats have been unnerved by the Tories' success. They have stopped sending their crack teams into marginal Tory seats at weekends, and started sending them to their own marginals such as Newbury.
The likelihood of Mr Blair losing the next election is still slim. But the Prime Minister must be beginning to worry about his majority. What if it goes down to 30 or 25?
Remember John Major and the few "bastards" who made his life hell when he barely had a majority.
If Labour's support drops dramatically Mr Blair will lose all those nice new Labour MPs who won their seats in 1997. Instead he will be left with the bolshie old Labour bastards.
It's not what Gordon Brown wants either. By all means give Tony a bloody nose but don't pulp the entire party.
So what can Labour do?
1. Keep those two indistinguishable bruisers, John Reid and Charles Clarke, off the air waves. Bring back Gordon Brown, it's petty not to bother showing him the manifesto.
2. Don't keep terrorising the country about the Tories. Voters are not idiots. They know that more people won't die in hospitals just because they vote Tory, and whatever you say, they are never going to believe that the Tories are soft on suicide bombers.
3. The Budget next week is your most obvious chance to seize the agenda but it's going to need to be something big such as help for the elderly with council tax bills, transferrable tax allowances for stay-at-home mothers and raising the income tax threshold.
And what do the Tories need to do? More of the same. A few well-researched human interest stories, some good policy announcements, a bit of populism, a little high-mindedness, as much on health and education as on immigration and crime. They could also move on to school food and transport.
There are still 55 days until the general election, Labour has time to turn this election around but this time the Tories don't look as though they are going to give them any help.
Taken from www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2005/03/11/do1102.xml
i'm not so sure, though i desperatly want them to win the next election.
it is often joked that whoever the Sun supports, usually wins the next election and...in todays internet Sun, they think the "sun" shines out of TB's ar5e, about the "lock'em up without charge bill" and "freebies for africa"
i've said it on these threads before, there are a lot of people out there with issues with this government and blair in particular, the tories can only hope that there are a few million like me who want these incompetant, controlling, lying, petty, tax and spend b######5 OUT.
remember, mr & mrs "average middle england" voted blair in, has he helped you?
it is often joked that whoever the Sun supports, usually wins the next election and...in todays internet Sun, they think the "sun" shines out of TB's ar5e, about the "lock'em up without charge bill" and "freebies for africa"
i've said it on these threads before, there are a lot of people out there with issues with this government and blair in particular, the tories can only hope that there are a few million like me who want these incompetant, controlling, lying, petty, tax and spend b######5 OUT.
remember, mr & mrs "average middle england" voted blair in, has he helped you?
Howard and his merry men might be doing some good, but they are equally managing to shoot themselves in the foot at fairly frequent intervals. Shame really.
I just wish British politics would get away from the personal attack, single issue style that its got into in the last 10 years. Lets get back to the bigger issues and principles.... sound bites do nothing to prove to me that you are worthy of running the country (personally I keep coming to the opinion that I could do a better job - though reality says I probably cant!).
Maybe my memory has faded, but did Maggie get to power by promising sweeping changes and a change to what the encumbant Lab party was doing? Correct me if I am wrong but seem to remember it being a bigger thing than some specific parent of special needs child or a pensioner on some hospital waiting list.... hardly affects me does it....
No one will get to power if we keep doing this....
I just wish British politics would get away from the personal attack, single issue style that its got into in the last 10 years. Lets get back to the bigger issues and principles.... sound bites do nothing to prove to me that you are worthy of running the country (personally I keep coming to the opinion that I could do a better job - though reality says I probably cant!).
Maybe my memory has faded, but did Maggie get to power by promising sweeping changes and a change to what the encumbant Lab party was doing? Correct me if I am wrong but seem to remember it being a bigger thing than some specific parent of special needs child or a pensioner on some hospital waiting list.... hardly affects me does it....
No one will get to power if we keep doing this....
off_again said:
Maybe my memory has faded, but did Maggie get to power by promising sweeping changes and a change to what the encumbant Lab party was doing? Correct me if I am wrong but seem to remember it being a bigger thing than some specific parent of special needs child or a pensioner on some hospital waiting list.... hardly affects me does it....
No one will get to power if we keep doing this....
The only areas left for sweeping changes are the public services-By using the specific incidents above they are bringing attention to their own proposals for reform.
Though admitedly their proposals are still nowhere near radical enough.
The Tories need to reach out and claim their true inheritence as the ideological descendents of the old Liberals.
They need to make the torch of freedom mean something.
are there any "mr & mrs average middle scotland/wales" out there?
well yes, but vastly out numbered by labour and nationalist voters. interesting point that at the time of mrs T, there were 12 tory seats in scotland, now there are none, but that is a different issue.
i think the tories need to get out there with some real alternatives. there must be a different way to fund the health service, local services and get us away from this compensation, human rights, take no responsibility culture. there must be an alternative.
well yes, but vastly out numbered by labour and nationalist voters. interesting point that at the time of mrs T, there were 12 tory seats in scotland, now there are none, but that is a different issue.
i think the tories need to get out there with some real alternatives. there must be a different way to fund the health service, local services and get us away from this compensation, human rights, take no responsibility culture. there must be an alternative.
I have a feeling that the Tories will win by a slim margin. Not because they put in a good performance before the election, but because most people have simply had enough of Labour and their high taxation policies. They will probably get in despite their pre-election performance.
If Labour do manage to scrape in it will be with such a small majority their hands are effectively tied. Bliars days of doing whatever he wants are definitely drawing to a close
If Labour do manage to scrape in it will be with such a small majority their hands are effectively tied. Bliars days of doing whatever he wants are definitely drawing to a close
Howard had got the right ideas, so please let's get Labour out and rid ourselves of the suffocating nannyism / over-taxation / probable local taxation / increase in council tax / more cameras / more road humps / uncontrolled immigration / probable ID cards / continued NHS decline - too many managers / over-manned public sector and the cost of this etc etc.
There are alot of people, the layabout chavs type, who have benefitted hugly underlabour. The rest of us have been shafted.
The tories need to be smarter, they need to show that they can cut taxes curb the power of the civil service and to do radical things. How many votes would ridding speed cameras from all roads excepet 30 mph limits get them, how many would free tuition for students on relevant courses, ie if they want to do eastenders at degree level make em pay but for the courses we need like medicene its free. Free care for the old, no taking the savings to pay for care, these are policis that appeal to most people I speak with.
God I realy fear that labour will get back in as they have
ed us up in 8 years think what they can acheive in the next 5
The tories need to be smarter, they need to show that they can cut taxes curb the power of the civil service and to do radical things. How many votes would ridding speed cameras from all roads excepet 30 mph limits get them, how many would free tuition for students on relevant courses, ie if they want to do eastenders at degree level make em pay but for the courses we need like medicene its free. Free care for the old, no taking the savings to pay for care, these are policis that appeal to most people I speak with.
God I realy fear that labour will get back in as they have
ed us up in 8 years think what they can acheive in the next 5 BliarOut said:
If Labour do manage to scrape in it will be with such a small majority their hands are effectively tied. Bliars days of doing whatever he wants are definitely drawing to a close
Lets hope so, I don't want to see the likes of this week again, where a government, having had years to redraw terrorist legislation, leaves it to the last minute and then accuses everyone else of "playing politics"
On a personal note, this is the first election where my vote will matter as I have lived in staunchly labour or conservative areas before.
I'm going to be voting your girlfriend out Bliarout
>> Edited by wolves_wanderer on Friday 11th March 10:47
spaximus said:
There are alot of people, the layabout chavs type, who have benefitted hugly underlabour.
I think that's our best hope, after all, which group is least likely to vote? If they can't be arsed to get a job they aren't going to be dragged away from Trisha to put a cross in a box are they?
spaximus said:
There are alot of people, the layabout chavs type, who have benefitted hugly underlabour. The rest of us have been shafted.
The tories need to be smarter, they need to show that they can cut taxes curb the power of the civil service and to do radical things. How many votes would ridding speed cameras from all roads excepet 30 mph limits get them, how many would free tuition for students on relevant courses, ie if they want to do eastenders at degree level make em pay but for the courses we need like medicene its free. Free care for the old, no taking the savings to pay for care, these are policis that appeal to most people I speak with.
God I realy fear that labour will get back in as they have
But do not forget the huge expansion in the public payroll-an extra 1/2 a million and the fact that the public sector salaries have closed the gap with private ones-despite the far more generous pensions in the public sector.
Labour are building up a big 'payroll' vote.
I wish it was true. But the way Labour bludgeons its way past democracy to get what it wants it upsetting the fair minded people, regardless of what the subject is. For example, I was neutral on the subject of hunting, yet I would now vote for the hunters because, whether it's right or wrong, they were shafted. Hunting isn't a big deal, but flushed with that victory Labour are trying it again with anti-terrorism laws - and that's got a lot of people mad.
simpo two said:
I wish it was true. But the way Labour bludgeons its way past democracy to get what it wants it upsetting the fair minded people, regardless of what the subject is. For example, I was neutral on the subject of hunting, yet I would now vote for the hunters because, whether it's right or wrong, they were shafted. Hunting isn't a big deal, but flushed with that victory Labour are trying it again with anti-terrorism laws - and that's got a lot of people mad.
(Crosses fingers and hopes that this doen't turn into a fox hunting thread smiley)
The biggest problem is the "I won't vote and protest vote" brigade. They will be the ones that are disenchanted with Labour or don't think Howard is any better. The protest voters will go for the extremes such and the BNP or Green parties, these won't get enough votes to make a difference but will leave the door wide open for Labour to get back in power.
One other thing to consider when voting is that most of Bliars policies were originally introduced or thought up by the Tories so therefore I won't vote
One other thing to consider when voting is that most of Bliars policies were originally introduced or thought up by the Tories so therefore I won't vote
falcemob said:
One other thing to consider when voting is that most of Bliars policies were originally introduced or thought up by the Tories so therefore I won't vote
That is the most succesful spin Labour have achieved-though perhaps your wink signifies you know this too.
How is it Tory policy to squeeze every possible amount of Tax from the country then lavish the money on unreformed public services?.
Howard needs to tell the chav types he will increase benefits, issue free burberry attire, give 'get-out-of-jail-free' cards, make bigger council houses etc etc.
After the election he can change his mind - afterall it wouldn't be as bad as lying about a war would it?
I am normally inclined to vote for the MP who I think will represent me best. However, this time my cross is going in the blue box regardless. Get him out or hugely reduce his majority.
After the election he can change his mind - afterall it wouldn't be as bad as lying about a war would it?
I am normally inclined to vote for the MP who I think will represent me best. However, this time my cross is going in the blue box regardless. Get him out or hugely reduce his majority.
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