Economy set to implode?
Discussion
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4748211.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4749111.stm
Reading these two links, it seems that with increased bankruptcy, personal loans etc etc, the only way for the economy to go is through the floor. I can't see how any contiuned spending can carry on even with a drop in interest rates.
What does the great PH think?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4749111.stm
Reading these two links, it seems that with increased bankruptcy, personal loans etc etc, the only way for the economy to go is through the floor. I can't see how any contiuned spending can carry on even with a drop in interest rates.
What does the great PH think?
While any economy is inherently unstable at some levels, the British economy is, despite a number of concerns, pretty healthy.
Conditions are much different to how they were in the early 90's. The Bank of England has generally managed interest rates responsibly and carefully.
I do not believe there is going to be a crash, or a recession, but there will be a slow down and a period of reduced growth.
Conditions are much different to how they were in the early 90's. The Bank of England has generally managed interest rates responsibly and carefully.
I do not believe there is going to be a crash, or a recession, but there will be a slow down and a period of reduced growth.
The UK economy is slowing sharply, consumers have been spending 105% of disposable income wracking up record levels of debt, worse they haven't been saving, and so have no cushion in case of redundancies. The spending spree is coming to an end.
The only thing masking the loss of 1million + manufacturing jobs has been the creation of 1 million + public sector jobs, goverment spending is running out of control Brown estimated UK GDP growth at 3% this year we'll be lucky to get 2%, that means £40bn on tax rises will be needed.
The UK eoconomy is now dangerously concentrated in/dependant upon the financial service sector and state sector.
IMHO the situation is much much worse that 1991.
The only thing masking the loss of 1million + manufacturing jobs has been the creation of 1 million + public sector jobs, goverment spending is running out of control Brown estimated UK GDP growth at 3% this year we'll be lucky to get 2%, that means £40bn on tax rises will be needed.
The UK eoconomy is now dangerously concentrated in/dependant upon the financial service sector and state sector.
IMHO the situation is much much worse that 1991.
Ok, firstly treat the stuff that the BBC puts on the webpages with a pinch of salt. I remember a while ago someone posted up a screenshot of the BBC News site about house prices. The related news links were litterally one per month with "house prices continue to rise" then "house prices to crash" then "house prices reach new highs"..... blah blah - but you get the picture. They are there to publish the next current report and not actually consider the wider picture or the impact. If a report this week suggests the economy is slowing then fine - thats their headline and we are all going to be out of a job in 3 months flat...... well thats the scare story at least. A good classic example of this is when the say that house prices are falling - yet what they mean is that the growth rate at which they are rising, is falling.... its a very different thing and based on the current time of year, to be expected!
Secondly I would suggest that the UK economy is slowing but not as sharply as some media outlets might suggest. There is still growth and it is a head of inflation so things are positive (in the definition of the word, rather than optimism). Maintaining growth in the economy is key and this seems to be fair. But how long this last and what impact this has long term is yet to be determined. For example, they talk of 1800 workers from Rover getting new jobs - great, but working in Tesco doesnt necessarily assist the greater economy. So is it a worthwhile job? At least they pay taxes I suppose.
What do I think? Well I am getting rid of as much debt as I can in the short term and I wont be taking on any more. I drive a £1500 shed and I have no intention of changing this (on finance) for at least 6 months. I want to ensure that any slow down in the economy (its that phrase again - not not recession, but slow down of growth) I am fully prepared for - that means mimimum debt and maximum income..... even to the point of overpaying on my mortgage to buy some freedome should the cr*p hit the fan in a couple of year (and yes my mortgage lender will allow this).
This is a precautionary measure only. I dont see the economy hitting the rails just yet. But I can see a slow-down and a few sectors hit hard, such as manufacturing. Although lasting effects are unknown, the 2012 Olympics will have a dramatic impact in the construction sector in the next couple of years - nevermind the 1M+ new homes for the SE that they want to build! So there are some positive areas.....
Secondly I would suggest that the UK economy is slowing but not as sharply as some media outlets might suggest. There is still growth and it is a head of inflation so things are positive (in the definition of the word, rather than optimism). Maintaining growth in the economy is key and this seems to be fair. But how long this last and what impact this has long term is yet to be determined. For example, they talk of 1800 workers from Rover getting new jobs - great, but working in Tesco doesnt necessarily assist the greater economy. So is it a worthwhile job? At least they pay taxes I suppose.
What do I think? Well I am getting rid of as much debt as I can in the short term and I wont be taking on any more. I drive a £1500 shed and I have no intention of changing this (on finance) for at least 6 months. I want to ensure that any slow down in the economy (its that phrase again - not not recession, but slow down of growth) I am fully prepared for - that means mimimum debt and maximum income..... even to the point of overpaying on my mortgage to buy some freedome should the cr*p hit the fan in a couple of year (and yes my mortgage lender will allow this).
This is a precautionary measure only. I dont see the economy hitting the rails just yet. But I can see a slow-down and a few sectors hit hard, such as manufacturing. Although lasting effects are unknown, the 2012 Olympics will have a dramatic impact in the construction sector in the next couple of years - nevermind the 1M+ new homes for the SE that they want to build! So there are some positive areas.....
nuclearsquash said:its an inevitability in our current situation, even I know that and I aint no analyst or expert.
he better f*****g not!
If he puts that penny increase on fuel duty mind he'll be rather silly IMO - it's far too expensive as it is to promote travel and tourism (mines used sparingly at the moment)
JagLover said:
The rise in bankruptcies is mainly due to a change in the law making the process easier.
Agreed, also there appears to be less of a social stigma associated with bankruptcies and from what I've seen with an acquaintance, it appears to be quite easy to recover post bankruptcy, by changing your name by deed pole, changing your address and become "credit worthy" again.
It's a much easier way out than it used to be.
pp
Thats it some more economics jokes (its Friday afternoon 
)
Economics is the only field in which two people can get a Nobel Prize for saying exactly the opposite thing.
-----------------------------------------------------
A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.
The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."
Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."
Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says "What do you want it to equal?"
-----------------------------------------------------
TOP 10 REASONS TO STUDY ECONOMICS
1. Economists are armed and dangerous: "Watch out for our invisible hands."
2. Economists can supply it on demand.
3. You can talk about money without every having to make any.
4. You get to say "trickle down" with a straight face.
5. Mick Jagger and Arnold Schwarzenegger both studied economics and look how they turned out.
6. When you are in the unemployment line, at least you will know why you are there.
7. If you rearrange the letters in "ECONOMICS", you get "COMIC NOSE".
8. Although ethics teaches that virtue is its own reward, in economics we get taught that reward is its own virtue.
9. When you get drunk, you can tell everyone that you are just researching the law of diminishing marginal utility.
10. When you call 1-900-LUV-ECON and get Kandi Keynes, you will have something to talk about.
---------------------------------------------------
An economist is a trained professional paid to guess wrong about the economy. An econometrician is a trained professional paid to use computers to guess wrong about the economy.
-----------------------------------------------------
Talk is cheap. Supply exceeds Demand.
-----------------------------------------------------
Bentley's second Law of Economics: The only thing more dangerous than an economist is an amateur economist!
Berta's Fundamental Law of Economic Rents.. "The only thing more dangerous than an amateur economist is a professional economist."
------------------------------------------------------
A Policy Analyst is someone unethical enough to be a lawyer, impractical enough to be a theologian, and pedantic enough to be an economist.
------------------------------------------------------
A mathematician, a theoretical economist and an econometrician are asked to find a black cat (who doesn't really exist) in a closed room with the lights off:
- The mathematician gets crazy trying to find a black cat that doesn't exist inside the darkened room and ends up in a psychiatric hospital.
- The theoretical economist is unable to catch the black cat that doesn't exist inside the darkened room, but exits the room proudly proclaiming that he can construct a model to describe all his movements with extreme accuracy.
- The econometrician walks securely into the darkened room, spend one hour looking for the black cat that doesn't exits and shouts from inside the room that he has it catched by the neck."
------------------------------------------------------
Q. What do economists and computers have in common ??
A. You need to punch information into both of them.
------------------------------------------------------
A civil engineer, a chemist and an economist are traveling in the countryside. Weary, they stop at a small country inn. "I only have two rooms, so one of you will have to sleep in the barn," the innkeeper says. The civil engineer volunteers to sleep in the barn, goes outside, and the others go to bed. In a short time they're awakened by a knock. It's the engineer, who says, "There's a cow in that barn. I'm a Hindu, and it would offend my beliefs to sleep next to a sacred animal." The chemist says that, OK, he'll sleep in the barn. The others go back to bed, but soon are awakened by another knock. It's the chemist who says, "There's a pig in that barn. I'm Jewish, and cannot sleep next to an unclean animal." So the economist is sent to the barn. It's getting late, the others are very tired and soon fall asleep. But they're awakened by an even louder knocking. They open the door and are surprised by what they see: It's the cow and the pig!
------------------------------------------------------
Three economists and three mathematicians were going for a trip by train. Before the journey, the mathematicians bought 3 tickets but economists only bought one. The mathematicians were glad their stupid colleagues were going to pay a fine. However, when the conductor was approaching their compartment, all three economists went to the nearest toilet. The conductor, noticing that somebody was in the toilet, knocked on the door. In reply he saw a hand with one ticket. He checked it and the economists saved 2/3 of the ticket price.
The next day, the mathematicians decided to use the same strategy- they bought only one ticket, but economists did not buy tickets at all! When the mathematicians saw the conductor, they hid in the toilet, and when they heard knocking they handed in the ticket. They did not get it back.
Why? The economists took it and went to the other toilet.
-----------------------------------------------------
A party of economists was climbing in the Alps . After several hours they became hopelessly lost. One of them studied the map for some time, turning it up and down, sighting on distant landmarks, consulting his compass, and finally the sun.
Finally he said, ' OK see that big mountain over there?'
'Yes', answered the others eagerly.
'Well, according to the map, we're standing on top of it.'
------------------------------------------------------
Q: How many conservative economists does it take to change a light bulb?
A1: None. The darkness will cause the light bulb to change by itself.
A2: None. If it really needed changing, market forces would have caused it to happen.
A3: None. If the government would just leave it alone, it would screw itself in.
A4. None. "There is no need to change the light bulb. All the conditions for illumination are in place.
A5. None, because, look! It's getting brighter! It's definitely getting brighter !!!
A5. None; they're all waiting for the unseen hand of the market to correct the lighting disequilibrium.
-----------------------------------------------------
Q. What's the difference between an economist and a befuddled old man with Alzheimer's?
A. The economist is the one with the calculator.
-----------------------------------------------------
An economist is someone who doesn't know what he's talking about - and make you feel it's your fault.
-----------------------------------------------------
The definition of "waste": a busload of economists plunging over a precipice with three of the seats unoccupied.
-----------------------------------------------------
Bill and Boris are taking a break from a long summit, Boris says to Bill, -Bill, you know, I have a big problem I don't know what to do about. I have a hundred bodyguards and one of them is a traitor. I don't know which one. -Not a big deal Boris, I'm stuck with a hundred economists I have to listen to all the time before any policy decision, and only one tells the truth but it's never the same one.
-----------------------------------------------------
During the waning days of communism in the Soviet Union, an inspector was encharged with visiting local poultry farmers and inquiring about the amount of feed they were giving their chickens. Central planning was still in effect and each farmer was allocated 15 Roubles to spend on chicken feed.
One farmer very honestly answered that he spent five of the allocated 15 Roubles on chicken feed. The inspector took this to mean that the thieving farmer pocketed the other ten and promptly had him imprisoned.
Hearing of this through the rumour mill, the next farmer down the road insisted that he spent all 15 Roubles on food for the chickens. The inspector saw this as a case of budget-padding and the farmer as a wasteful opportunist. He too was imprisoned.
The third farmer heard of both episodes and was more prepared for the inspector's arrival.
"How many of the 15 Roubles do you actually spend on chicken feed," asked the inspector.
Like a true nascent capitalist, the farmer threw his hands in the air and answered, "hey! I give 15 Roubles to the chickens. They can eat whatever they want!"
-----------------------------------------------------
Experienced economist and not so experienced economist are walking down the road. They get across shit lying on the asphalt.
Experienced economist: "If you eat it I'll give you $20,000!"
Not so experienced economist runs his optimization problem and figures out he's better off eating it so he does and collects money.
Continuing along the same road they almost step into yet another shit.
Not so experienced economist: "Now, if YOU eat this shit I'll give YOU $20,000."
After evaluating the proposal experienced economist eats shit getting the money.
They go on. Not so experienced economist starts thinking: "Listen, we both have the same amount of money we had before, but we both ate shit. I don't see us being better off."
Experienced economist: "Well, that's true, but you overlooked the fact that we've been just involved in $40,000 of trade."
------------------------------------------------------
A boy was crossing a road one day when a frog called out to him and said, "If you kiss me, I'll turn into a beautiful princess." He bent over, picked up the frog and put it in his pocket. The frog spoke up again and said, "If you kiss me and turn me back into a beautiful princess, I will stay with you for one week." The boy took the frog out of his pocket, smiled at it, and returned it to his pocket. The frog then cried out, "If you kiss me and turn me back into a princess, I'll stay with you and do ANYTHING you want." Again the boy took the frog out, smiled at it and put it back into his pocket. Finally, the frog asked, "What is the matter? I've told you I'm a beautiful princess, that I'll stay with you for a week and do anything you want. Why won't you kiss me?" The boy said, "Look, I'm an economist. I don't have time for a girlfriend, but a talking frog is cool."
------------------------------------------------------
Economists have forecasted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.
------------------------------------------------------
An econometrician and an astrologer are arguing about their subjects. The astrologer says, "Astrology is more scientific. My predictions come out right half the time. Yours can't even reach that proportion". The econometrician replies, "That's because of external shocks. Stars don't have those".
-----------------------------------------------------
) Economics is the only field in which two people can get a Nobel Prize for saying exactly the opposite thing.
-----------------------------------------------------
A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.
The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."
Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."
Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says "What do you want it to equal?"
-----------------------------------------------------
TOP 10 REASONS TO STUDY ECONOMICS
1. Economists are armed and dangerous: "Watch out for our invisible hands."
2. Economists can supply it on demand.
3. You can talk about money without every having to make any.
4. You get to say "trickle down" with a straight face.
5. Mick Jagger and Arnold Schwarzenegger both studied economics and look how they turned out.
6. When you are in the unemployment line, at least you will know why you are there.
7. If you rearrange the letters in "ECONOMICS", you get "COMIC NOSE".
8. Although ethics teaches that virtue is its own reward, in economics we get taught that reward is its own virtue.
9. When you get drunk, you can tell everyone that you are just researching the law of diminishing marginal utility.
10. When you call 1-900-LUV-ECON and get Kandi Keynes, you will have something to talk about.
---------------------------------------------------
An economist is a trained professional paid to guess wrong about the economy. An econometrician is a trained professional paid to use computers to guess wrong about the economy.
-----------------------------------------------------
Talk is cheap. Supply exceeds Demand.
-----------------------------------------------------
Bentley's second Law of Economics: The only thing more dangerous than an economist is an amateur economist!
Berta's Fundamental Law of Economic Rents.. "The only thing more dangerous than an amateur economist is a professional economist."
------------------------------------------------------
A Policy Analyst is someone unethical enough to be a lawyer, impractical enough to be a theologian, and pedantic enough to be an economist.
------------------------------------------------------
A mathematician, a theoretical economist and an econometrician are asked to find a black cat (who doesn't really exist) in a closed room with the lights off:
- The mathematician gets crazy trying to find a black cat that doesn't exist inside the darkened room and ends up in a psychiatric hospital.
- The theoretical economist is unable to catch the black cat that doesn't exist inside the darkened room, but exits the room proudly proclaiming that he can construct a model to describe all his movements with extreme accuracy.
- The econometrician walks securely into the darkened room, spend one hour looking for the black cat that doesn't exits and shouts from inside the room that he has it catched by the neck."
------------------------------------------------------
Q. What do economists and computers have in common ??
A. You need to punch information into both of them.
------------------------------------------------------
A civil engineer, a chemist and an economist are traveling in the countryside. Weary, they stop at a small country inn. "I only have two rooms, so one of you will have to sleep in the barn," the innkeeper says. The civil engineer volunteers to sleep in the barn, goes outside, and the others go to bed. In a short time they're awakened by a knock. It's the engineer, who says, "There's a cow in that barn. I'm a Hindu, and it would offend my beliefs to sleep next to a sacred animal." The chemist says that, OK, he'll sleep in the barn. The others go back to bed, but soon are awakened by another knock. It's the chemist who says, "There's a pig in that barn. I'm Jewish, and cannot sleep next to an unclean animal." So the economist is sent to the barn. It's getting late, the others are very tired and soon fall asleep. But they're awakened by an even louder knocking. They open the door and are surprised by what they see: It's the cow and the pig!
------------------------------------------------------
Three economists and three mathematicians were going for a trip by train. Before the journey, the mathematicians bought 3 tickets but economists only bought one. The mathematicians were glad their stupid colleagues were going to pay a fine. However, when the conductor was approaching their compartment, all three economists went to the nearest toilet. The conductor, noticing that somebody was in the toilet, knocked on the door. In reply he saw a hand with one ticket. He checked it and the economists saved 2/3 of the ticket price.
The next day, the mathematicians decided to use the same strategy- they bought only one ticket, but economists did not buy tickets at all! When the mathematicians saw the conductor, they hid in the toilet, and when they heard knocking they handed in the ticket. They did not get it back.
Why? The economists took it and went to the other toilet.
-----------------------------------------------------
A party of economists was climbing in the Alps . After several hours they became hopelessly lost. One of them studied the map for some time, turning it up and down, sighting on distant landmarks, consulting his compass, and finally the sun.
Finally he said, ' OK see that big mountain over there?'
'Yes', answered the others eagerly.
'Well, according to the map, we're standing on top of it.'
------------------------------------------------------
Q: How many conservative economists does it take to change a light bulb?
A1: None. The darkness will cause the light bulb to change by itself.
A2: None. If it really needed changing, market forces would have caused it to happen.
A3: None. If the government would just leave it alone, it would screw itself in.
A4. None. "There is no need to change the light bulb. All the conditions for illumination are in place.
A5. None, because, look! It's getting brighter! It's definitely getting brighter !!!
A5. None; they're all waiting for the unseen hand of the market to correct the lighting disequilibrium.
-----------------------------------------------------
Q. What's the difference between an economist and a befuddled old man with Alzheimer's?
A. The economist is the one with the calculator.
-----------------------------------------------------
An economist is someone who doesn't know what he's talking about - and make you feel it's your fault.
-----------------------------------------------------
The definition of "waste": a busload of economists plunging over a precipice with three of the seats unoccupied.
-----------------------------------------------------
Bill and Boris are taking a break from a long summit, Boris says to Bill, -Bill, you know, I have a big problem I don't know what to do about. I have a hundred bodyguards and one of them is a traitor. I don't know which one. -Not a big deal Boris, I'm stuck with a hundred economists I have to listen to all the time before any policy decision, and only one tells the truth but it's never the same one.
-----------------------------------------------------
During the waning days of communism in the Soviet Union, an inspector was encharged with visiting local poultry farmers and inquiring about the amount of feed they were giving their chickens. Central planning was still in effect and each farmer was allocated 15 Roubles to spend on chicken feed.
One farmer very honestly answered that he spent five of the allocated 15 Roubles on chicken feed. The inspector took this to mean that the thieving farmer pocketed the other ten and promptly had him imprisoned.
Hearing of this through the rumour mill, the next farmer down the road insisted that he spent all 15 Roubles on food for the chickens. The inspector saw this as a case of budget-padding and the farmer as a wasteful opportunist. He too was imprisoned.
The third farmer heard of both episodes and was more prepared for the inspector's arrival.
"How many of the 15 Roubles do you actually spend on chicken feed," asked the inspector.
Like a true nascent capitalist, the farmer threw his hands in the air and answered, "hey! I give 15 Roubles to the chickens. They can eat whatever they want!"
-----------------------------------------------------
Experienced economist and not so experienced economist are walking down the road. They get across shit lying on the asphalt.
Experienced economist: "If you eat it I'll give you $20,000!"
Not so experienced economist runs his optimization problem and figures out he's better off eating it so he does and collects money.
Continuing along the same road they almost step into yet another shit.
Not so experienced economist: "Now, if YOU eat this shit I'll give YOU $20,000."
After evaluating the proposal experienced economist eats shit getting the money.
They go on. Not so experienced economist starts thinking: "Listen, we both have the same amount of money we had before, but we both ate shit. I don't see us being better off."
Experienced economist: "Well, that's true, but you overlooked the fact that we've been just involved in $40,000 of trade."
------------------------------------------------------
A boy was crossing a road one day when a frog called out to him and said, "If you kiss me, I'll turn into a beautiful princess." He bent over, picked up the frog and put it in his pocket. The frog spoke up again and said, "If you kiss me and turn me back into a beautiful princess, I will stay with you for one week." The boy took the frog out of his pocket, smiled at it, and returned it to his pocket. The frog then cried out, "If you kiss me and turn me back into a princess, I'll stay with you and do ANYTHING you want." Again the boy took the frog out, smiled at it and put it back into his pocket. Finally, the frog asked, "What is the matter? I've told you I'm a beautiful princess, that I'll stay with you for a week and do anything you want. Why won't you kiss me?" The boy said, "Look, I'm an economist. I don't have time for a girlfriend, but a talking frog is cool."
------------------------------------------------------
Economists have forecasted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.
------------------------------------------------------
An econometrician and an astrologer are arguing about their subjects. The astrologer says, "Astrology is more scientific. My predictions come out right half the time. Yours can't even reach that proportion". The econometrician replies, "That's because of external shocks. Stars don't have those".
-----------------------------------------------------
I don't believe the current economy is sustainable: (1) Cheap imports
(2) High tax regime
(3) EU legislation
(4) PC blinkers
Gordon Brown, like all socialists, thinks that money grows on trees. He also likes splashing it about. If it runs out, heck, just pick some more or borrow it from somewhere else.
(2) High tax regime
(3) EU legislation
(4) PC blinkers
Gordon Brown, like all socialists, thinks that money grows on trees. He also likes splashing it about. If it runs out, heck, just pick some more or borrow it from somewhere else.
simpo two said:
I don't believe the current economy is sustainable: (1) Cheap imports
(2) High tax regime
(3) EU legislation
(4) PC blinkers
Gordon Brown, like all socialists, thinks that money grows on trees. He also likes splashing it about. If it runs out, heck, just pick some more or borrow it from somewhere else.
I can't believe Gordon Brown is sustainable.
timmy30 said:
The UK economy is slowing sharply, consumers have been spending 105% of disposable income wracking up record levels of debt, worse they haven't been saving, and so have no cushion in case of redundancies. The spending spree is coming to an end.
There's more to the UK economy than consumers and retail shops fella.
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