Anyone else read a book called "Freakonomics"?
Discussion
A most interesting and absorbing read, if you're into analsying the world by statistical information rather than simply opinion.
www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0713998067/qid=1131008531/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_11_1/026-4478779-1488432
I can highly recommend the above, probably because I tend to (overly) think in terms of percentages and probability myself. It drives my wife nuts, but if, for example, we're in a restaurant I'll find myself counting the number of customers, guessing what their average spend is, working out how many customers they get per day, estimating the likely cost of waiters, chefs, food, etc, plus overheads. And then trying to have a stab at what their profit (or otherwise). It's sad I know. The missus says "just eat your damn dinner!" - and she's right, of course.
Anyway, the book makes some very interesting observations of social behaviour and trends by analysing factual data - and it slays a few sacred cows in the process. I cite one example:
A certain school is achieving outstanding exam results.
Legislation then determines that this school take 'out of catchment' pupils.
It is oversubscribed by 100%
The school then selects which pupils to accept by lottery.
As such, an entirely random half are accepted and a random half are not.
Obviously, the pupils that are not accepted generally to go to inferior schools.
However, some years later when the exam results of the accepted and rejected pupils are assessed they're more or less identical - despite the (supposed) inferirior schooling of the rejected half.
The author makes the point that the most likely reason for this is not so much the performance of the schools, but the fact that all 100% of kids (and familes of the kids, accepted or not) "wanted to improve themselves by applying to the school for acceptance". He proposes that the reason for identical success is that all of them were keen to further themselves (hence the application to the performing school) so they therefore were far more likely to succeed.
Whether you agree with the above or not, personally I found it an intriguing proposal.
Other things touched on include:
The effect of abortion on the crime rate, 20 years after it is leagalised.
The difference between black and white pupils.
The effect of poverty on how kids turn out.
The effect of kids being raised by one parent.
Which parenting techniques (statistically) work.
Why crack-dealers tend to live with their mums.
How someone's name, statistically, can have an impact on their success.
Etc.. Etc..
Personally, in the light of well researched data, with large smaples, I had to rethink some of my own presumptions. As such, I can highly recommend the book to anyone with inquisitive approach to life!
www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0713998067/qid=1131008531/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_11_1/026-4478779-1488432
I can highly recommend the above, probably because I tend to (overly) think in terms of percentages and probability myself. It drives my wife nuts, but if, for example, we're in a restaurant I'll find myself counting the number of customers, guessing what their average spend is, working out how many customers they get per day, estimating the likely cost of waiters, chefs, food, etc, plus overheads. And then trying to have a stab at what their profit (or otherwise). It's sad I know. The missus says "just eat your damn dinner!" - and she's right, of course.
Anyway, the book makes some very interesting observations of social behaviour and trends by analysing factual data - and it slays a few sacred cows in the process. I cite one example:
A certain school is achieving outstanding exam results.
Legislation then determines that this school take 'out of catchment' pupils.
It is oversubscribed by 100%
The school then selects which pupils to accept by lottery.
As such, an entirely random half are accepted and a random half are not.
Obviously, the pupils that are not accepted generally to go to inferior schools.
However, some years later when the exam results of the accepted and rejected pupils are assessed they're more or less identical - despite the (supposed) inferirior schooling of the rejected half.
The author makes the point that the most likely reason for this is not so much the performance of the schools, but the fact that all 100% of kids (and familes of the kids, accepted or not) "wanted to improve themselves by applying to the school for acceptance". He proposes that the reason for identical success is that all of them were keen to further themselves (hence the application to the performing school) so they therefore were far more likely to succeed.
Whether you agree with the above or not, personally I found it an intriguing proposal.
Other things touched on include:
The effect of abortion on the crime rate, 20 years after it is leagalised.
The difference between black and white pupils.
The effect of poverty on how kids turn out.
The effect of kids being raised by one parent.
Which parenting techniques (statistically) work.
Why crack-dealers tend to live with their mums.
How someone's name, statistically, can have an impact on their success.
Etc.. Etc..
Personally, in the light of well researched data, with large smaples, I had to rethink some of my own presumptions. As such, I can highly recommend the book to anyone with inquisitive approach to life!
I've read it and liked it so much I started a thread on it back in August 
www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=141&t=200859
Good book.
www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=141&t=200859
Good book.
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