Bank share prices long term.....
Bank share prices long term.....
Author
Discussion

Tony*T3

Original Poster:

20,911 posts

278 months

Friday 8th August 2008
quotequote all
Me old mum is looking into investing a wedge to give her a decent return in about 8-10 years time.

Do you think buying bank shares, such as RBS, which are currently 'on their knees' will look like a good long term investment? Surely, 6 or 7 years time we'll be looking back at all this banking crisis stuff and thinking 'they were bad times, glad their long gone'? Surely these bank shares will bounce back, long term?

For example, RBS shares were around £7.20 18 months ago, around £2.66 now. Long term (7-10years) they'll have risen way past this surely? So is now (or soon) a good time to put some money in these?

HBOS were £11.10 18 months ago, now £3.30 etc etc

Or do you think the bank share prices have a long way to fall yet?

Obviosuly, talking about the big players, not the likes of Northern Rock.

DO you think we'll be looking back in 5 years time and saying "god thse share prices were cheap then..."?

or is it too risky?

Meeja

8,290 posts

279 months

Friday 8th August 2008
quotequote all
I am far from a financial expert, but if it is a long term investment, then I would have thought YES.

A bit like the property market - obviously going through a slump at the moment - but over the long term it always rises.


Timmy35

13,014 posts

229 months

Friday 8th August 2008
quotequote all
No one knows.

However I would advise spreading the risk by buying a collective fund covering the Banks .... I believe there's an ETF that covers this or alternatively there are lots of managed funds that cover them.



emicen

9,257 posts

249 months

Friday 8th August 2008
quotequote all
As per the post above, I would suggest multiple banks' stock rather than just the one.

Historically prices have always risen but this is no guarantee they will continue to do so. But the market sentiment is undoubtably driving down prices at the moment.

oyster

13,795 posts

279 months

Friday 8th August 2008
quotequote all
RBS have already picked up from a floor of 155 a few weeks ago and HBOS also fell into the 260's.

It's not right to use their historical prioces though as they have both had recent rights issues which dilute the value of each share in any case.

sprinter885

11,550 posts

258 months

Saturday 9th August 2008
quotequote all
I know this is yesterday's thread (things move on so quick on here) but you might want to look at this. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpest...
As an ex HSBC employee I'm always amazed at how people in UK don't realise the size of the group, how well managed it is and relative stability that brings.

fido

18,931 posts

286 months

Saturday 9th August 2008
quotequote all
Tony*T3 said:
Or do you think the bank share prices have a long way to fall yet?
Falling? You're buying the wrong shares. Bought myself a load of Barclays shares at £2.80 not too long ago. Even if they pay half the forecast dividends i'll be happy - i'm looking to hold them for a few years anyway.

Crash Test Dummy

1,788 posts

235 months

Saturday 9th August 2008
quotequote all
I went in on Barclays shares at around 4-500p mark on a few seperate occasions. I then went in at around 300p

They closed at ~366p yesturday. I should have sold when they went over 700p but I hung on. Barclays had abit of a crisis at the beginning of the year and all the banks are having a hard time at the moment. I didn't need the money so I decided to ride out the storm.

Am half tempted to throw another few grand into the banking industry now.

If you have any real sort of money buy property. You may fall into negative equity until the market bottoms out but in the long run you should have a nice chunk of equity to sell.

A friend of mine liquidated some assets a few years ago. He is now buying property and land at an phenomenal rate. Land doesn't need maintaining.

A bank may go bust. Banks in general wont

Edited by Crash Test Dummy on Saturday 9th August 14:04

trooperiziz

9,457 posts

283 months

Saturday 9th August 2008
quotequote all
emicen said:
As per the post above, I would suggest multiple banks' stock rather than just the one.

Historically prices have always risen but this is no guarantee they will continue to do so. But the market sentiment is undoubtably driving down prices at the moment.
True, and 10 years isn't actually that long term really!

In its 130 year history, pick any 30 (or is it 40? either way a bloody long time!) year period and the All Share index has always risen by no less that 10% per year on average.

Less than 30 years and individual shares are anyones guess.wink