Should I take this proposition bet?
Discussion
Not sure if this should belong here but I figured I'd get a quicker answer or people might be interested.
A little history:
An aquaintance of mine, a reasonable runner, 5 10", 69kg, can run 3k in 10.30m. I started at 13.30 and over the last two months have got that time down to 11.40. I could probably run a 11.30 if I set my mind to it a few days before hand ie didn't drink and ate well. Running an 11.30 would definitely take 100% effort.. by the end I'm running on fumes..
I'm reasonably fit and have run two or three times a week varying distances from 3-6k for over 2 years, although nothing competetive or serious. I'm 5' 11" and 75kg if this makes any difference.
My friend wants to make a £500 evens proposition bet with me I won't be able to beat the <b>10.30 magic time</b> within 8 weeks. The time must be recorded on a treadmill by a 3rd party (I forgot to mention, all these times are on a treadmill with NO rolling start). My maths tells me I'd have to average 18 km/hr. At the moment I increase the km/hr by 1 each km, i.e start on 15, then 16 and 17 for the last kilometer. Like I said, by the end of an 11.30, I'm currently f*cked, puking in the toilets etc.
Half of me tells me he wouldn't offer the bet if he thought it was remotely achieveable but I'd love the extra spending money (mmm new alloys) and can't resist a challenge..so I want to take the bet - (although I estimate my odds are more like 2/1 - 3/1, any bookies want to price me up?!?) but I want to be sure first that it is realistic to shave a minute off within 8 weeks. Of course, once the bet is on I would do everything I could to win including eating healthily, quitting drinking and training each week.
A final note: £500 is not a lot of money to him. It's quite a lot of money to me, although I don't class this as 'gambling' per se. He won't budge on the amount because in his own words 'it will make it more exciting' - so £500 or nothing.
I want to know:
a)if the bet is realistic from my perspective (maybe a few personal trainers on here?!)
b) if yes, then a rough optimal training plan to achieve this time.
Thanks for your opinions!
A little history:
An aquaintance of mine, a reasonable runner, 5 10", 69kg, can run 3k in 10.30m. I started at 13.30 and over the last two months have got that time down to 11.40. I could probably run a 11.30 if I set my mind to it a few days before hand ie didn't drink and ate well. Running an 11.30 would definitely take 100% effort.. by the end I'm running on fumes..
I'm reasonably fit and have run two or three times a week varying distances from 3-6k for over 2 years, although nothing competetive or serious. I'm 5' 11" and 75kg if this makes any difference.
My friend wants to make a £500 evens proposition bet with me I won't be able to beat the <b>10.30 magic time</b> within 8 weeks. The time must be recorded on a treadmill by a 3rd party (I forgot to mention, all these times are on a treadmill with NO rolling start). My maths tells me I'd have to average 18 km/hr. At the moment I increase the km/hr by 1 each km, i.e start on 15, then 16 and 17 for the last kilometer. Like I said, by the end of an 11.30, I'm currently f*cked, puking in the toilets etc.
Half of me tells me he wouldn't offer the bet if he thought it was remotely achieveable but I'd love the extra spending money (mmm new alloys) and can't resist a challenge..so I want to take the bet - (although I estimate my odds are more like 2/1 - 3/1, any bookies want to price me up?!?) but I want to be sure first that it is realistic to shave a minute off within 8 weeks. Of course, once the bet is on I would do everything I could to win including eating healthily, quitting drinking and training each week.
A final note: £500 is not a lot of money to him. It's quite a lot of money to me, although I don't class this as 'gambling' per se. He won't budge on the amount because in his own words 'it will make it more exciting' - so £500 or nothing.
I want to know:
a)if the bet is realistic from my perspective (maybe a few personal trainers on here?!)
b) if yes, then a rough optimal training plan to achieve this time.
Thanks for your opinions!
If you multiply this up, you run 19:30 5k pace now. You want to run 17:30 5k pace... It's a big jump in 8 weeks and whlst not impossible, you would need to do some significant stamina and speedwork to achieve. Honestly I don't think you can make it given the limited information, but good luck if youdo go for it. Read the running Thread in the sports forum and let us know how you get on
T-J-K
I do a bit of running and if you achieve this, I would be very impressed
T-J-K
I do a bit of running and if you achieve this, I would be very impressed
Edited by The jiffle king on Tuesday 25th November 17:04
boomchick said:
Running an 11.30 would definitely take 100% effort.
Exactly how true is that? If your life (or somebody elses) depended on it would you really not be able to run any faster?Ever noticed how athletes often pull out personal bests at the big events? When the rewards are greater so is the motivation. This is what 100% looks like.
For £500 I think I could get a little closer to 100%. I'd guess that your friend's proposition is the motivator he thinks you need to do the same. He's probably trying to help you rather than make a quick buck.
boomchick said:
V8mate said:
You write like a bloke but have a girl's username. Why's that?
You can tell this from a writing style? Well done - I forgot to mention that. Boomchick is a type of guitar playing (fingerstyle, Tommy Emmanuel) if anyone is interested! Good replies so far.. thanks!
Oh and for what it's worth I do a fair bit of running, usually longer distances but still know that it will take a lot of work to knock 20 seconds off each of your km's. I wouldn't say it is impossible, but it will require some dedication.
Edited by ChrisE on Tuesday 25th November 17:22
Gruffy said:
boomchick said:
Running an 11.30 would definitely take 100% effort.
Exactly how true is that? If your life (or somebody elses) depended on it would you really not be able to run any faster?the_jiffle_king said:
If you multiply this up, you run 19:30 5k pace now. You want to run 17:30 5k pace... It's a big jump in 8 weeks and whlst not impossible, you would need to do some significant stamina and speedwork to achieve. Honestly I don't think you can make it given the limited information, but good luck if youdo go for it. Read the running Thread in the sports forum and let us know how you get on
T-J-K
I do a bit of running and if you achieve this, I would be very impressed
I will definitely do this, there seems to be a lot of information - maybe start a thread over there. I think I'm probably going to sleep on it then accept the bet tomorrow unless I break my leg or something :/. If I don't do it soon he'll likely change his mind. I'm pretty confident what Gruffy said earlier is going to make a big difference on the actual day.T-J-K
I do a bit of running and if you achieve this, I would be very impressed
That is a very tall order. You've already made significant improvement on your pace so you may be close to your full potential.
It would be worth doing speed training once a week. I find that that makes a real difference when seeking to improve stamina and pace.
A friend of mine who did a lot of distance work said that he found running one mile as fast as possible really helped to improve his minute per mile pace.
I'd load up on carbs the day before training.
ewanm is your man.
I wish you well!
It would be worth doing speed training once a week. I find that that makes a real difference when seeking to improve stamina and pace.
A friend of mine who did a lot of distance work said that he found running one mile as fast as possible really helped to improve his minute per mile pace.
I'd load up on carbs the day before training.
ewanm is your man.
I wish you well!
I rather suspect that Running is much like weight training, you make fairly good improvements fairly swiftly thereafter it all goes to pot a bit and it takes a LOT longer to improve.. I think your mate may know that too.
Bottom line, if you cannot afford to lose it, you don't bet it. End of.
Bottom line, if you cannot afford to lose it, you don't bet it. End of.
Gruffy said:
boomchick said:
Running an 11.30 would definitely take 100% effort.
Exactly how true is that? If your life (or somebody elses) depended on it would you really not be able to run any faster?Ever noticed how athletes often pull out personal bests at the big events? When the rewards are greater so is the motivation. This is what 100% looks like.
For £500 I think I could get a little closer to 100%. I'd guess that your friend's proposition is the motivator he thinks you need to do the same. He's probably trying to help you rather than make a quick buck.
That is serious!boomchick said:
I'm pretty confident what Gruffy said earlier is going to make a big difference on the actual day.
You'll need to find that mindset and keep it every day for the next eight weeks if you're going to succeed, not just on the day. Maintaining it will the real challenge.Say you run five times a week, you need to commit 100% (a proper 100% - watch that clip again every morning) to shaving 2 seconds off your time every time (for the first four weeks – then 1 second per run for the last four weeks). You need to keep that commitment when it comes to getting 8 quality hours of shuteye every night. You need to apply that resolve when it comes to eating for your success and drinking enough water. When you stretch and when you cool down, do it to the highest standard because you're aiming for 100%.
Find the smuggest photo you can of this guy and use it to motivate you. Take it with you to the gym and sellotape it to the treadmill display. Every time you run envisage him counting out 500 crisp pounds and scoffing a portion of humble pie as he admits he didn't think it was going to be possible and you proved him wrong.
"Yeah, it's a tough tough challenge, but you know what? I'll take that bet and I'll win that bet. You don't think I can do it which is why I'm going to really enjoy taking your money in eight weeks time!"
Post your times here after every run and I'm sure I won't be the only one who's helping you with encouragement to keep your motivation at 100%.
Thanks for the replies..
Exactly right. But he is obviously not prepared to budge on the odds and I definitely fancy the challenge.
Great post Gruffy and great clip - insane. I hope I won't need that much in the tank to win (says this eating a toffee yogurt after 4 pints). Obviously it was a good topic for the pub this evening..someone told me this guy lost a packet offering a guy 2/1 he couldn't beat his time on a 13 mile stretch of road near Leeds in a standard 1995 525 compared to his tarted up 530 (not that I'm condoning this, of course :/). He is actually a long term contractor at our company and apparently a big prop bettor (and a big winner too) although I've only just started so I don't know much about anything yet. Anyway, everyone seems to have a lot to say about him so I've already decided in my head I can do this and I'll see the guy tomorrow. Hell, I'd be stupid not to do it. It's like saying 'here is £500 guaranteed' - well, almost, if you work like a dog for a couple of months... you see how I'm talking myself into this?
Like I said, for the amount that is involved, it's not pocket change to me and it would hurt one hell of a lot to lose it. But I suppose the guy is right about the 'excitement' factor, the sicko. At the very least I'll have interesting conversations near the water cooler whether I win or lose the day afterwards. I'm not even sure how he will want all this to work i.e. will the 3rd party hold the money for the entire 8 weeks or just the day before.. will we need an official legal contract etc etc. Anyway, I guess I'll find out.
Practice attempt is scheduled for tomorrow morning before work in case I come to my senses..
erdnase said:
boomchick said:
My friend wants to make a £500 evens proposition bet with me
boomchick said:
..although I estimate my odds are more like 2/1 - 3/1
Sounds like a negative expectation bet. Unless offered "2/1 - 3/1", save your money. Unless you fancy a gamble and a bit of a challenge! Great post Gruffy and great clip - insane. I hope I won't need that much in the tank to win (says this eating a toffee yogurt after 4 pints). Obviously it was a good topic for the pub this evening..someone told me this guy lost a packet offering a guy 2/1 he couldn't beat his time on a 13 mile stretch of road near Leeds in a standard 1995 525 compared to his tarted up 530 (not that I'm condoning this, of course :/). He is actually a long term contractor at our company and apparently a big prop bettor (and a big winner too) although I've only just started so I don't know much about anything yet. Anyway, everyone seems to have a lot to say about him so I've already decided in my head I can do this and I'll see the guy tomorrow. Hell, I'd be stupid not to do it. It's like saying 'here is £500 guaranteed' - well, almost, if you work like a dog for a couple of months... you see how I'm talking myself into this?
Like I said, for the amount that is involved, it's not pocket change to me and it would hurt one hell of a lot to lose it. But I suppose the guy is right about the 'excitement' factor, the sicko. At the very least I'll have interesting conversations near the water cooler whether I win or lose the day afterwards. I'm not even sure how he will want all this to work i.e. will the 3rd party hold the money for the entire 8 weeks or just the day before.. will we need an official legal contract etc etc. Anyway, I guess I'll find out.
Practice attempt is scheduled for tomorrow morning before work in case I come to my senses..
Edited by boomchick on Tuesday 25th November 23:49
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