A hypothetical share question.
A hypothetical share question.
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Discussion

blindswelledrat

Original Poster:

25,257 posts

261 months

Thursday 27th November 2008
quotequote all
Can a share knower-abouter solve a hypothetical argument we are having:

A large PLC closes an arm of its company,which amounts to about 5% of its turnover, due to the fact that it is no longer viable in the current climate.
THe two sides of the argument are as follows:
a)This makes the share price go up because current price already accounts for hard times- and they are seen to be taking further action to cut costs and prevent risk
b)THis makes share price go down because past of the business are failing?


Edit: No idea why this is showing as a certificate 18 post??

Edited by blindswelledrat on Thursday 27th November 11:38

2something

2,145 posts

237 months

Thursday 27th November 2008
quotequote all
Both can be right.

What is priced in to the shares is obviously important. You could have two similar companies taking similar actions and leading to a rise in one share price and a drop in the other.

Also it depends on the markets position in the shares, if they are long, they are long and in the absence of new buyers, the shares will go down pretty much regardless of what happens.

merc_man

1,926 posts

231 months

Thursday 27th November 2008
quotequote all
Chances are that any action of this sort would already be factored into the price as it's likely that the market would be expecting this to happen. Very little happens that the market hasn't already factored in. You generally see the large movments when something wholly unexpected is announced (i.e. profits warning).

All other things being equal though I would have thought this would be seen as a positive move by the management and would probably give a small upwards movement. Far too many other factors to be taken into account though in this simplistic argument (cash balances, health of the other businesses, market sector performance and so on).

Chris49

1,121 posts

230 months

Thursday 27th November 2008
quotequote all
As above, it really can go both ways and it would be havily dependant a number of factors regarding the company in question.

Crusoe

4,123 posts

260 months

Thursday 27th November 2008
quotequote all
Probably depend on if the market (the big investors) see it as a decisive management decision that will be good for the company or a short term panic measure to try to try and get themselves out of a hole.