Will the Western Economy remain in it's current form??

[robm3]

With Clarkson predicting the end of days as we know it, what do you think??

[Maxf]

Clarkson writes some funny columns - an economist he isn't.

IMO things will worsen next year. 2010 will see stabilisation, then 2010-11 will see growth. I don't know when we will return to late 2007 values (depends on the barometer I guess) - but at some point we will. IMO.

[sa_20v]

Silly Poll said:

It'll all Collapse -Get guns, food&water

ROFL, if only! We're quite safe, as soon as the press get hold of some good news we'll all be back to spending money we don't have.

[Skipppy]

robm3 said:

With Clarkson predicting the end of days as we know it, what do you think??

Have you got a link to his articles?

I think there could be an economic reshuffle as it were, with the US and the UK losing a lot of what they had.

[Fittster]

Why do people think the Eastern and Western economies aren't connected?

[Maxf]

Fittster said:

Why do people think the Eastern and Western economies aren't connected?

Agree - if anything the current economic woes have highlight just how connected the world is these days. A few years ago you'd be looking at where best to place your cash/move to (if work allows) but generally everywhere is teetering (sp?) on the same edge.

[Kieran XJR]

I'm no economist, but I do think something will have to fundermentally change, the levels of debt out there, particularly US and UK government debt, just seem to be unsustainable and show no signs of diminishing any time soon.

If that's continued with there could conceivably come a point in time where the costs of servicing all the debt start consuming all of the profits of production, resulting in money being printed, hyper-inflation, and all the rest of it.

If Western economies start cutting back debt and returning to something sustainable, I imagine growth will be very limited for a long time.

[chris watton]

Having a population a country can afford to sustain without going into the red would be a good start!

[RDMcG]

I think it will never some back as we know it. Nothing has happened with all of these bailouts to changes the indebtedness of the individual. We have the whole boomer generation heading into retirement, suddenly with massively reduced assets.People have worked in multiple jobs which means that pensions are much reduced. Labour is globally mobile, and few of those outsourced jobs are coming back. The US is in serious decline, and after the disaster of the last eight years has lost huge influence in the world, so the locus of prosperity will go East.
In summary, we will have a long tedious climb out of the tyranny of debt, a reduced standard of living, and much less personal security. We are ,in short, completely done.

[Apache]

Fittster said:

Why do people think the Eastern and Western economies aren't connected?

The US and China have a symbiotic relationship.....which China seems to regret, but what about us? Europe doesn't give a toss and the Arabs could drop us like a stone

Edited by Apache on Tuesday 23 December 13:16

[NoelWatson]

Maxf said:

Clarkson writes some funny columns - an economist he isn't.

IMO things will worsen next year. 2010 will see stabilisation, then 2010-11 will see growth. I don't know when we will return to late 2007 values (depends on the barometer I guess) - but at some point we will. IMO.

2007 values for what? GDP?

[Silver993tt]

each downturn has had a set of "unique" circumstances and many during each were saying the same thing - "will it ever be the same again?". I reckon by mid-end 2009, things will be on the up. Also by that time, the media will be talking it up (as they are talking it down right now).

There's never been a better time to invest in equities, property etc. As usual, the best time is when everyone indicates that it's the worst time to invest in these areas. The worst time is when everyone is saying it's the best time to invest.

I'll be buying one or two more properties during 2009. I've already put a % into equities over the last 4-6 weeks

Still, it's only a hunch that I have ;-)

[ShadownINja]

sa_20v said:

Silly Poll said:

It'll all Collapse -Get guns, food&water

ROFL, if only! We're quite safe, as soon as the press get hold of some good news we'll all be back to spending money we don't have.

Yep. Hopefully personal borrowing will be harder to get hold of.

[NoelWatson]

Silver993tt said:

There's never been a better time to invest in equities, property etc.

For equities, I agree, for property, I can think of a few better times

Tomorrow
25th December 2008
26th December 2008
27th December 2008
..........
..........
24th December 2011
25th December 2011
26th December 2011
27th December 2011

etc

[Maxf]

NoelWatson said:

Maxf said:

Clarkson writes some funny columns - an economist he isn't.

IMO things will worsen next year. 2010 will see stabilisation, then 2010-11 will see growth. I don't know when we will return to late 2007 values (depends on the barometer I guess) - but at some point we will. IMO.

2007 values for what? GDP?

Thats what I mean with my 'Barometer' caveat. I come at most economic discussions from a commercial property perspective.

[NoelWatson]

Maxf said:

NoelWatson said:

Maxf said:

Clarkson writes some funny columns - an economist he isn't.

IMO things will worsen next year. 2010 will see stabilisation, then 2010-11 will see growth. I don't know when we will return to late 2007 values (depends on the barometer I guess) - but at some point we will. IMO.

2007 values for what? GDP?

Thats what I mean with my 'Barometer' caveat. I come at most economic discussions from a commercial property perspective.

I think commercial property in London will be FUBAR for a number of years

[toppstuff]

NoelWatson said:

Silver993tt said:

There's never been a better time to invest in equities, property etc.

For equities, I agree, for property, I can think of a few better times

Tomorrow
25th December 2008
26th December 2008
27th December 2008
..........
..........
24th December 2011
25th December 2011
26th December 2011
27th December 2011

etc

I'd be more interested in a company's bonds than it's equity. Some corporate credit is way to cheap.

[NoelWatson]

toppstuff said:

NoelWatson said:

Silver993tt said:

There's never been a better time to invest in equities, property etc.

For equities, I agree, for property, I can think of a few better times

Tomorrow
25th December 2008
26th December 2008
27th December 2008
..........
..........
24th December 2011
25th December 2011
26th December 2011
27th December 2011

etc

I'd be more interested in a company's bonds than it's equity. Some corporate credit is way to cheap.

Agreed for the IG stuff, not HY. But how does a punter get exposure to this? Is the only way via a fund, and if so, are there any tracker type funds?

[Maxf]

NoelWatson said:

Maxf said:

NoelWatson said:

Maxf said:

Clarkson writes some funny columns - an economist he isn't.

IMO things will worsen next year. 2010 will see stabilisation, then 2010-11 will see growth. I don't know when we will return to late 2007 values (depends on the barometer I guess) - but at some point we will. IMO.

2007 values for what? GDP?

Thats what I mean with my 'Barometer' caveat. I come at most economic discussions from a commercial property perspective.

I think commercial property in London will be FUBAR for a number of years

I suppose it depends what. London still seems to be fairing better than a lot of the rest of the country and quality still seems to be selling at keen yields.

Everything is going to continue to tank next year, but yields are getting further removed from the cost of borrowing and there seems to be a number of organisations waiting in the wings, with the intention of simply collecting rent and maybe benefitting from yield compression in the next few years.

2009 does seem to have been written off though - rightfully so IMO.

[toppstuff]

NoelWatson said:

toppstuff said:

NoelWatson said:

Silver993tt said:

There's never been a better time to invest in equities, property etc.

For equities, I agree, for property, I can think of a few better times

Tomorrow
25th December 2008
26th December 2008
27th December 2008
..........
..........
24th December 2011
25th December 2011
26th December 2011
27th December 2011

etc

I'd be more interested in a company's bonds than it's equity. Some corporate credit is way to cheap.

Agreed for the IG stuff, not HY. But how does a punter get exposure to this? Is the only way via a fund, and if so, are there any tracker type funds?

Look at some of the corporate bonds funds out there from managers such as Invesco, M&G et al.

www.morningstar.co.uk is a good place to start.

Convertibles also took a huge kicking in 08. May be a punt for later 09.

But I am usually wrong and have no idea what i am talking about.