Oil at $39 a barrel today....

[Silver993tt]

.... looks like it will close below $40 for the end of the year. I reckon it will toch $30 or even into the $20-something in Jan/Feb. Can only be good for most of the economy I think.

[10 Pence Short]

Silver993tt said:

.... looks like it will close below $40 for the end of the year. I reckon it will toch $30 or even into the $20-something in Jan/Feb. Can only be good for most of the economy I think.

Unless you're Iran. Now you have to ask for an 85% mortgage on your nuclear material centrifuge from the Bank Of North Korea.

[Chilli]

And I bought at 39.60. Just the -350 points today then. Seems that everyone has been hoarding it and there's loads and loads in reserve......which is nice, for them.

[normalbloke]

I'm sure OPEC will cut production to get it up to $75 not far into the New Year...

[davido140]

normalbloke said:

I'm sure OPEC will cut production to get it up to $75 not far into the New Year...

There will only be one guy with a nodding-donkey rig in the middle of the desert still producing before long!

[Captain Cadillac]

normalbloke said:

I'm sure OPEC will cut production to get it up to $75 not far into the New Year...

Last 2 times they did that it crashed. Ha ha!

[Chilli]

Captain Cadillac said:

normalbloke said:

I'm sure OPEC will cut production to get it up to $75 not far into the New Year...

Last 2 times they did that it crashed. Ha ha!

Madness isn't it? They agree to cut production by record amounts, and the market shrugs it off saying they will never do it, and the price drops! I'm not asking for much.....$45 will see food on the table for a while.

[Scuffers]

Chilli said:

Captain Cadillac said:

normalbloke said:

I'm sure OPEC will cut production to get it up to $75 not far into the New Year...

Last 2 times they did that it crashed. Ha ha!

Madness isn't it? They agree to cut production by record amounts, and the market shrugs it off saying they will never do it, and the price drops! I'm not asking for much.....$45 will see food on the table for a while.

problem (for OPEC) is that they do not account for *all* production by any means these days, even if all of OPEC stopped tommorrow, it would have sod all real effect for some time...

[schnell]

10 Pence Short said:

Silver993tt said:

.... looks like it will close below $40 for the end of the year. I reckon it will toch $30 or even into the $20-something in Jan/Feb. Can only be good for most of the economy I think.

Unless you're Iran.

Or work in the oil industry...

[Silver993tt]

normalbloke said:

I'm sure OPEC will cut production to get it up to $75 not far into the New Year...

any announcement of a planned cut in production or even any kind of discussion in that area is seen as panic, so the price tends to fall when any such announcements are made. I think $30 but end of January.

[madala]

....and I am still buying diesel at nigh on £1.00 a litre here in London.....best I can get is 89.9p....we are living in crazy and very dangerous times....I am not looking forward to 2009....

[Scuffers]

closed at $36.20 tonight

[Captain Cadillac]

Scuffers said:

Chilli said:

Captain Cadillac said:

normalbloke said:

I'm sure OPEC will cut production to get it up to $75 not far into the New Year...

Last 2 times they did that it crashed. Ha ha!

Madness isn't it? They agree to cut production by record amounts, and the market shrugs it off saying they will never do it, and the price drops! I'm not asking for much.....$45 will see food on the table for a while.

problem (for OPEC) is that they do not account for *all* production by any means these days, even if all of OPEC stopped tommorrow, it would have sod all real effect for some time...

Oh I think if OPEC turned the taps completely off that there might be a bit of an issue. The panic that is ensuing from the usual suspects is a joke, Oil is back to where it was in 2004 when it was higher than it had been, but that's when everyone was on TV saying "You know, Oil prices have been depressed and historically, adjusted for inflation, Oil should be around $35-40 a bbl".

The past few years have given people like Hugo Chavez a tremendous hard currency surplus at their disposal. And what have they done with the money? Pissed it away on what's been basically buying votes for his idiotic political schemes.

God forbid they should save any for a rainy day, they forgot the one cardinal rule of markets... Spikes/Balloons NEVER are sustainable. EVER.

[onlynik]

schnell said:

10 Pence Short said:

Silver993tt said:

.... looks like it will close below $40 for the end of the year. I reckon it will toch $30 or even into the $20-something in Jan/Feb. Can only be good for most of the economy I think.

Unless you're Iran.

Or work in the oil industry...

Yes, it is a bad thing.

[DBSV8]

onlynik said:

schnell said:

10 Pence Short said:

Silver993tt said:

.... looks like it will close below $40 for the end of the year. I reckon it will toch $30 or even into the $20-something in Jan/Feb. Can only be good for most of the economy I think.

Unless you're Iran.

Or work in the oil industry...

Yes, it is a bad thing.

seconded

its not sustainable at $30,

predict oil so rise to $70 by February ,

[XJSJohn]

DBSV8 said:

onlynik said:

schnell said:

10 Pence Short said:

Silver993tt said:

.... looks like it will close below $40 for the end of the year. I reckon it will toch $30 or even into the $20-something in Jan/Feb. Can only be good for most of the economy I think.

Unless you're Iran.

Or work in the oil industry...

Yes, it is a bad thing.

seconded

its not sustainable at $30,

predict oil so rise to $70 by February ,

most oil fields (outside the middle east) need a rate of $58+ a barrel to break even on extraction, shipping and base refining.

[Mc Lovin]

How do you buy oil? i know that sounds stupid but i know sweet FA about stocks and shares ect.

I've got a decent bonus for Jan's pay and whilst the irons hot.......

[XJSJohn]

Mc Lovin said:

How do you buy oil? i know that sounds stupid but i know sweet FA about stocks and shares ect.

I've got a decent bonus for Jan's pay and whilst the irons hot.......

Buying Physical oil cargo's (D2, Mazut etc) outside of G2G or as mandated seller is a rather private business that involves lots of drinking with relavent people, the playing of golf etc etc.

usually 12 month supply contracts or spot deals (anything from 100,000 tons to 10 million tons.)

Currently few people wants to sell as what they have was probably purchased at $600 - 900 / ton and they would rather try and sit on it.

However to buy you generally need to provide (at some point in the contract) proof of bunkering or refining facilities, a credit check and a non transferrable bond of 3% of contract.

amongst other stuff ...

Anyway excuse me drifting off on one, back to my bottle of vino collapso and "Goldfinger"

[Mc Lovin]

i didn't realise it was like that! oh well!

[Silver993tt]

XJSJohn said:

DBSV8 said:

onlynik said:

schnell said:

10 Pence Short said:

Silver993tt said:

.... looks like it will close below $40 for the end of the year. I reckon it will toch $30 or even into the $20-something in Jan/Feb. Can only be good for most of the economy I think.

Unless you're Iran.

Or work in the oil industry...

Yes, it is a bad thing.

seconded

its not sustainable at $30,

predict oil so rise to $70 by February ,

most oil fields (outside the middle east) need a rate of $58+ a barrel to break even on extraction, shipping and base refining.

looks like they'll have to trim their production costs since it's only worth what people will pay for it. Maybe some pay cuts for people in the industry? They're generally very well paid, so there would be room there.