Above my head - Aurora predictions Help
Discussion
Off to Northern Sweeden in early Feb and hoping to see the Northern Lights, looked up a web siteof the Geophysical Institute in the USA to predict them but their 28 day prediction was not working so emailed them and had a good reply - although dont quite know what it means:: Cany anyone help: whats the prediciton for 7-14 feb for Northern Sweeden scale 0-9 I believe.
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Dear James, This fall a system crashed lead to the loss of calandar update functionality. We simply haven't had time to reprogram this function due to other research program support. With no calendar based 28 day forecast on the GI's Aurora Forecast webpage, you can make your own.
During the solar minimum, the longer range aurora forecasts are based primarily on the fact that a kind of episodic phenomena on the surface of the sun called a "corona hole" tend to persist for multiple rotations of the sun. Corona holes enhance the solar wind, which is the power source behind the aurora. Because the sun rotates on its axis every 27-28 days, one can make a crude forecast as to when such activity will return. An example of this was on Oct. 10, 2008 (i.e. Carrington Rotation #2075). This corona hole was still active the weekend of Nov. 8th (i.e. Carrington Rotation #2076).
While the 28 day forecast calendar of the GI's Aurora Forecast page is missing, you may want to use the Carrington Rotation plot from the previous or current rotation to make your own prediction for the short-term future -- i.e the next 28 days. I direct your attention to the lower left hand side of the Aurora Forecast webpage -- the "Solar Activity Comparison Plots" website. You will find the last five Carrington Rotation at:
http://www.gedds.alaska.edu/Akasofu/singles/..%5CL...
Rotation #2077 ended on Dec 18. Using the Solar Activity Comparison Plots, you can make a prediction yourself for Rotation #2078 or the next rotation. To do this, follow the yellow or red areas in the current or the previous rotation into the current or next rotation and note the day. This action essentially adds 27-28 days to any of the dates in the last couple of rotations where the velocity of the solar wind is above 500 km/s and the density is higher then normal background levels. The numbers along the bottom of each graph is the day of the month in that particular rotation. For more detailed information you can check out the Geoeffectiveness of Solar Events -- Most recent solar/interplanetary predictions: 28-Day recurrence forecast VDBS. Choose the .pdf here: http://gse.gi.alaska.edu/recent/vdbs_run28d.pdf This is continuously updated, so it should include information that might be overlooked in your crude forecast.
To improve your forecast for aurora watching purposes, you may want to search the internet for reports of aurora activity for the particular date(s) in the previous rotation that you have chosen to carry forward for your forecast. Note there location. If I'm posting about an aurora to the north of Fairbanks on that date, chances are that you aren't going to be seeing much from northern Montana. This Forum is one place to look for this information in postings. www.spacew.com ane www.spaceweather.com are other places. Making your own forecast has a way of reifying what may otherwise exist as merely an abstraction.
While corona holes fire the aurora in the north, they generally don't pack the energy to expand the aurora oval much to the south. Of course your forecast won't factor in unexpected Corona Mass Ejections, sunspot activity, and the like, but until we emerge from the solar minimum, these are not a factor in your forecast. Sincerely, Jeff PedersonGeophysical Institute
>>>
Dear James, This fall a system crashed lead to the loss of calandar update functionality. We simply haven't had time to reprogram this function due to other research program support. With no calendar based 28 day forecast on the GI's Aurora Forecast webpage, you can make your own.
During the solar minimum, the longer range aurora forecasts are based primarily on the fact that a kind of episodic phenomena on the surface of the sun called a "corona hole" tend to persist for multiple rotations of the sun. Corona holes enhance the solar wind, which is the power source behind the aurora. Because the sun rotates on its axis every 27-28 days, one can make a crude forecast as to when such activity will return. An example of this was on Oct. 10, 2008 (i.e. Carrington Rotation #2075). This corona hole was still active the weekend of Nov. 8th (i.e. Carrington Rotation #2076).
While the 28 day forecast calendar of the GI's Aurora Forecast page is missing, you may want to use the Carrington Rotation plot from the previous or current rotation to make your own prediction for the short-term future -- i.e the next 28 days. I direct your attention to the lower left hand side of the Aurora Forecast webpage -- the "Solar Activity Comparison Plots" website. You will find the last five Carrington Rotation at:
http://www.gedds.alaska.edu/Akasofu/singles/..%5CL...
Rotation #2077 ended on Dec 18. Using the Solar Activity Comparison Plots, you can make a prediction yourself for Rotation #2078 or the next rotation. To do this, follow the yellow or red areas in the current or the previous rotation into the current or next rotation and note the day. This action essentially adds 27-28 days to any of the dates in the last couple of rotations where the velocity of the solar wind is above 500 km/s and the density is higher then normal background levels. The numbers along the bottom of each graph is the day of the month in that particular rotation. For more detailed information you can check out the Geoeffectiveness of Solar Events -- Most recent solar/interplanetary predictions: 28-Day recurrence forecast VDBS. Choose the .pdf here: http://gse.gi.alaska.edu/recent/vdbs_run28d.pdf This is continuously updated, so it should include information that might be overlooked in your crude forecast.
To improve your forecast for aurora watching purposes, you may want to search the internet for reports of aurora activity for the particular date(s) in the previous rotation that you have chosen to carry forward for your forecast. Note there location. If I'm posting about an aurora to the north of Fairbanks on that date, chances are that you aren't going to be seeing much from northern Montana. This Forum is one place to look for this information in postings. www.spacew.com ane www.spaceweather.com are other places. Making your own forecast has a way of reifying what may otherwise exist as merely an abstraction.
While corona holes fire the aurora in the north, they generally don't pack the energy to expand the aurora oval much to the south. Of course your forecast won't factor in unexpected Corona Mass Ejections, sunspot activity, and the like, but until we emerge from the solar minimum, these are not a factor in your forecast. Sincerely, Jeff PedersonGeophysical Institute
http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/rt_act...
That should keep you occupied, live data & some good links too. I've used this to see the Aurora a couple of years back here in N Dorset!!
That should keep you occupied, live data & some good links too. I've used this to see the Aurora a couple of years back here in N Dorset!!
Ozzie Osmond said:
What you really need is a nice big volcanic eruption! The aurora was spectacular for months/years after mount St Helen's.
How's that work then ? Aurora Borealis is rays from the sun, I thought its little to do with earth unless the magnetics of the earth have some effect on it?Gassing Station | The Pie & Piston Archive | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff