any horse racing "system"that does what it says on the tin
Discussion
A few years ago i had a look at a load of systems from books, the internet etc.nothing really proved brilliant.
Anyone on here use any simple systems?
Dont think you can beat the bookies IMHO.
Had a mate who was a ladbrokes manager ,went to ascot once his surefire idea was to bet on the horse that had the shortest price with ladbrokes compared to the other bookmakers 6 bets 6 losers!
Anyone on here use any simple systems?
Dont think you can beat the bookies IMHO.
Had a mate who was a ladbrokes manager ,went to ascot once his surefire idea was to bet on the horse that had the shortest price with ladbrokes compared to the other bookmakers 6 bets 6 losers!
The best 'system' is to know the trainers and when they've got a horse that's actually trying.
Aside from that, one quite good way is to look at insignificant races where the horse has come from one end of the country to the other. They don't normally spend 14 hours on the road unless they're going for a win.
Aside from that, one quite good way is to look at insignificant races where the horse has come from one end of the country to the other. They don't normally spend 14 hours on the road unless they're going for a win.
There are various arbitrage systems usually between a bookie and a betting exchange... Or risk arbitrage between very similar bets with wildly differing odds usually spread betting related.
Alternatively I knew some guys who would make markets on bet fair but stopped when the latter increased charges for consistently succesful punters. That requires knowledge of the business though.
And then there's bonus bagging.
None of this will make you rich though.
Alternatively I knew some guys who would make markets on bet fair but stopped when the latter increased charges for consistently succesful punters. That requires knowledge of the business though.
And then there's bonus bagging.
None of this will make you rich though.
Betting arbitrage, that system works.
Very simplistically, say you have just two horses in a race and they're both paying 3-1.. well, you'd put £1 on each, and regardless of the outcome you'd make money. Of course the odds are usually much closer and there are lots of runners.
On Betfair for example, there will be moments, usually sub 1 second where you can place a bet on every horse (calculating the bet amount on each to payout an equal amount) in the race and you're guaranteed to win.
I had a Betfair API and wrote a program which analysed hundreds of races per second and placed the appropriate bets.
Worked quite well, made a few quid, though it's scary having a computer putting down £hundreds on your behalf.
Very simplistically, say you have just two horses in a race and they're both paying 3-1.. well, you'd put £1 on each, and regardless of the outcome you'd make money. Of course the odds are usually much closer and there are lots of runners.
On Betfair for example, there will be moments, usually sub 1 second where you can place a bet on every horse (calculating the bet amount on each to payout an equal amount) in the race and you're guaranteed to win.
I had a Betfair API and wrote a program which analysed hundreds of races per second and placed the appropriate bets.
Worked quite well, made a few quid, though it's scary having a computer putting down £hundreds on your behalf.
Well after spending quite a bit of time going to races both proper and flat.
I have found there are a few professional betters who make a living. You generally know which horse is going to win out of a selection of a few when you know all the horses inside out.
But it seems picking on colour has worked best for a friend of mine who is quite possibly the luckiest girl I know on the horses.
I have found there are a few professional betters who make a living. You generally know which horse is going to win out of a selection of a few when you know all the horses inside out.
But it seems picking on colour has worked best for a friend of mine who is quite possibly the luckiest girl I know on the horses.
If you just back the favourites in every race you'll see a return of about 95% of what you bet. If you just back the forecast odds-on favourites you'll see a return of about 99%. Concentrate on these and with a bit of work you can be profitable (I was!), but you'll need a large bankroll for it to be worth the time and effort you'll have to put into it.
I used to own and run a thoroughbred racing site with a buddy of mine. We did very well and focused on long term memberships; making any real money at the track needs to be treated like a business. We had reports and databases, always exposing the latest trend within certain conditions and just like the stock market invest in those trends when there high, watch when there low.
If you have a database, trainer angles are the way to go. Humans are creatures of habit, and with enough information (and long enough too) these 'habits' begin to take shape. i.e. This trainer only enters horses he feels are there to win in 6f races alw 20K NW1 races at Calder race course and only using a particular jockey. The general public which makes up 95% of the betting would never know that intricate piece of information as the past performances only go so far. We had one time over 200,000 entries!! You can really step back and see the bigger picture then.
Unforuntely there is no guaranteed win of course just like with anything else in life, but there are ways to minimize risk and that was one of them. Too bad the entire database and its back ups were lost in the fire. i.e. my buddies house burned down from his senile grandmothers lit cigarette thrown in the trash can.
But, forget a bookie. Use what I use, or find some place comparable
www.youbet.com
www.ehorse.com
Much better than a bookie.
If you have a database, trainer angles are the way to go. Humans are creatures of habit, and with enough information (and long enough too) these 'habits' begin to take shape. i.e. This trainer only enters horses he feels are there to win in 6f races alw 20K NW1 races at Calder race course and only using a particular jockey. The general public which makes up 95% of the betting would never know that intricate piece of information as the past performances only go so far. We had one time over 200,000 entries!! You can really step back and see the bigger picture then.
Unforuntely there is no guaranteed win of course just like with anything else in life, but there are ways to minimize risk and that was one of them. Too bad the entire database and its back ups were lost in the fire. i.e. my buddies house burned down from his senile grandmothers lit cigarette thrown in the trash can.
But, forget a bookie. Use what I use, or find some place comparable
www.youbet.com
www.ehorse.com
Much better than a bookie.
P.s. if you need any quick 'methods' just for the fun of it let me know. I can email you a few quick pen and paper methods that most days will show you a decent profit.
But that also brings me to the very important part of horse racing or any investing for that matter; money management. without it, your doomed in the long run.
you can be the best handicapper, but everyone knows you lose more than you win in the long run, so you need to have a proper money management system to withstand it and show a profit in the long term.
But that also brings me to the very important part of horse racing or any investing for that matter; money management. without it, your doomed in the long run.
you can be the best handicapper, but everyone knows you lose more than you win in the long run, so you need to have a proper money management system to withstand it and show a profit in the long term.
Cheers lotus, To be honest i think i'll bail out. Remember had a system using the tote ,i was betting £100(a lot of money for me ) to win say £20or £30 .After the race could be just £10.Needed to be winning most of the time.Remember feeling sick heart racing like hell waiting for the result.Not sure if i'm cut out for it!!
As others have said... Arbitrage. Basically if you find an 'arb' it's a guaranteed profit. It's a lot of work finding arbs though and if the bookies realise you're doing it they'll shut you down. There's a website called Arbfinder which I understand can help with this.
Mate of mine worked out a good system. Basically you look at races where there's a hot favourite and lay it to lose... but not at the price being offered at the start of the race. Instead lay it at odds of roughly double what's being offered. The theory is that if the horse falls back so much that your position is filled then it won't likely recover and you'll win. My mate 'paper traded' this and he won 23 our of 24 times. The only drawback is that he can't find a bookie that will let you back a horse at a different price to the one being offered on the premise that your order will only be filled if the odds change - they just open your bet at the price that's available there and then, even if you put in different odds for your bet to be matched at, so he has to watch and do it manually which leads to a lot of slippage if the horse is falling back rapidly.
Mate of mine worked out a good system. Basically you look at races where there's a hot favourite and lay it to lose... but not at the price being offered at the start of the race. Instead lay it at odds of roughly double what's being offered. The theory is that if the horse falls back so much that your position is filled then it won't likely recover and you'll win. My mate 'paper traded' this and he won 23 our of 24 times. The only drawback is that he can't find a bookie that will let you back a horse at a different price to the one being offered on the premise that your order will only be filled if the odds change - they just open your bet at the price that's available there and then, even if you put in different odds for your bet to be matched at, so he has to watch and do it manually which leads to a lot of slippage if the horse is falling back rapidly.
carlovers said:
Cheers lotus, To be honest i think i'll bail out. Remember had a system using the tote ,i was betting £100(a lot of money for me ) to win say £20or £30 .After the race could be just £10.Needed to be winning most of the time.Remember feeling sick heart racing like hell waiting for the result.Not sure if i'm cut out for it!!
I know what you mean! Until we made enough to be playing with winning money I felt the same way whenever I had to lay out $300 of my own hard earned money. Its painful to watch the race and sometimes I wouldnt LOLThere are a few quick fun scenarios to know such as play white horses whose MLO is 4-1 or less if there the only white horse in the field. They win at a much higher rate for some reason, but thats win as in Win Place or Show. Most of the time they win or place. Another would be that the Morning line Odd favorite comes ITM over 80% of the time!! Just that little bit of information is golden when palying exotics, especially superfecta wheels because you can incorporate the MLO favorite in the WP or S spot and leave him off the 4th spot on the wheel thus saving money on the play.
Another very intrictae piece of information that the database uncovered was that if you take the two top rated speed horses in a race whose morning line odds are also in that order, split a ticket to play them both for the win, one of them will come in. But to be honest it doesnt happen too often and most times when it does the value of the payout isnt all that great.
Another thing to know is that you can quickly eliminate half the field by using their MLO's and their running style fairly accurate too for finding the top 2 or contendors. What you do is find the horses who have similar running styles, then pick the one horse who has the lowest MLO. Scratch the other horse.
And another very important bit of information to know is that you can pretty much scratch off any horse with a MLO of 12-1 or higher for a win as they very VERY rarely come in, I think the overall win figure of a horse with 12-1 or higher MLO's was something like 12%.
I love talking about this stuff!
A friend of mine developed and runs this horse racing betting system http://www.racinginfoservices.co.uk/ he's been developing it for years and gets good results from it.
He's got stats and results going back years and years on every horse, jockey and trainer which you can interrogate and build your own system based on your criteria. He also does a free service where he sends out an email daily with horses to bet or lay.
He's got stats and results going back years and years on every horse, jockey and trainer which you can interrogate and build your own system based on your criteria. He also does a free service where he sends out an email daily with horses to bet or lay.
silent k said:
A friend of mine developed and runs this horse racing betting system http://www.racinginfoservices.co.uk/ he's been developing it for years and gets good results from it.
He's got stats and results going back years and years on every horse, jockey and trainer which you can interrogate and build your own system based on your criteria. He also does a free service where he sends out an email daily with horses to bet or lay.
That is similar to what we had as well, newsletters and custom reports. There is a very reputable monthly service that has just finally developed a program similar to our database that allows the user to do their own queries and reports. RPM systems its called. Ill check out your friends web site.He's got stats and results going back years and years on every horse, jockey and trainer which you can interrogate and build your own system based on your criteria. He also does a free service where he sends out an email daily with horses to bet or lay.
GT2man-2 said:
Betting arbitrage, that system works.
Very simplistically, say you have just two horses in a race and they're both paying 3-1.. well, you'd put £1 on each, and regardless of the outcome you'd make money. Of course the odds are usually much closer and there are lots of runners.
On Betfair for example, there will be moments, usually sub 1 second where you can place a bet on every horse (calculating the bet amount on each to payout an equal amount) in the race and you're guaranteed to win.
I had a Betfair API and wrote a program which analysed hundreds of races per second and placed the appropriate bets.
Worked quite well, made a few quid, though it's scary having a computer putting down £hundreds on your behalf.
I believe that some people took this too far (thought they saw a large gauranteed profit and went in time and time again) - when the results came in they realised it didn't work and individual losses ran into thousands of pounds. Betfair had to write most of them off.Very simplistically, say you have just two horses in a race and they're both paying 3-1.. well, you'd put £1 on each, and regardless of the outcome you'd make money. Of course the odds are usually much closer and there are lots of runners.
On Betfair for example, there will be moments, usually sub 1 second where you can place a bet on every horse (calculating the bet amount on each to payout an equal amount) in the race and you're guaranteed to win.
I had a Betfair API and wrote a program which analysed hundreds of races per second and placed the appropriate bets.
Worked quite well, made a few quid, though it's scary having a computer putting down £hundreds on your behalf.
However, for the OP, if you stick to plain matched betting - i.e. only backing the outcome at the bookie and laying the same outcome at the exchange - you can make a small, if consistent, profit. Combined with free promotions (£50 sign up bonus etc), hundreds of online bookies, and you can make a couple of thousand £ a year if you keep it up. It's not risk-free (mainly because you could cock it up); just relatively low-risk outline gambling where more often than normal you're just throwing money away. You can find plenty of guides online at the likes of moneysavingexpert and rpoints.
MitchT said:
As others have said... Arbitrage. Basically if you find an 'arb' it's a guaranteed profit. It's a lot of work finding arbs though and if the bookies realise you're doing it they'll shut you down. There's a website called Arbfinder which I understand can help with this.
On the other hand, they provide the same info to lots of users who all pile into the same arb - cue bookie spotting unusually high movement in a Belarussian 3rd Division game and limiting all the suspected arbers.Gassing Station | The Pie & Piston Archive | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff