When do you think economy will be back to the good old times
Discussion
Just wondered what everyone thought about when the UK economy will be restored to her former self.
Back in 2006-07 it was a case of companies throwing money at problems, moreso with the corporate giants; can't be bothered to file away those papers? No worries - just employ someone to do it. Fancy buying some huge flat screens to put up on the wall - not a problem, we'll buy some extra just incase. Want another house? Sure thing; approved.
Yet here we are 5 years later after the bubble burst with economists forever trying to figure out the light at the end of the tunnel. We hear it on the news pretty much daily; the doom and gloom of it all with the occassional blip of confidence starting to come into play. Back in 2008 most were saying it'll take 2-3 years to recover and yet here we are - a little better but still not great.
So... when do you think times will be good again and why? Will they ever recover themselves to the boom years? There is no right or wrong answer since no one knows what the future holds, so let us know your own personal thoughts...
Back in 2006-07 it was a case of companies throwing money at problems, moreso with the corporate giants; can't be bothered to file away those papers? No worries - just employ someone to do it. Fancy buying some huge flat screens to put up on the wall - not a problem, we'll buy some extra just incase. Want another house? Sure thing; approved.
Yet here we are 5 years later after the bubble burst with economists forever trying to figure out the light at the end of the tunnel. We hear it on the news pretty much daily; the doom and gloom of it all with the occassional blip of confidence starting to come into play. Back in 2008 most were saying it'll take 2-3 years to recover and yet here we are - a little better but still not great.
So... when do you think times will be good again and why? Will they ever recover themselves to the boom years? There is no right or wrong answer since no one knows what the future holds, so let us know your own personal thoughts...
I don't think it'll ever be like the early 2000s again, because thats exactly how we got in to this mess, as your post illustrates.
I think some businesses are very busy and doing pretty well.
Others are obviously finding it very tough. Some businesses (like Woolworths and Jessops) were already in trouble back then.
We have 3 years of booked work to do, but the "pipeline" or projected work is far more than that. We just need to make sure we keep delivering on time & budget and hopefully we'll continue for a very long time.
I think some businesses are very busy and doing pretty well.
Others are obviously finding it very tough. Some businesses (like Woolworths and Jessops) were already in trouble back then.
We have 3 years of booked work to do, but the "pipeline" or projected work is far more than that. We just need to make sure we keep delivering on time & budget and hopefully we'll continue for a very long time.
Soir said:
The economy will recover at some point (long as a piece of string)
But the big adjustment is how people view personal finance. Far too many were buying cars/ homes/ big tvs on the never never. Since credit crunch a lot of people have concentrated on getting debts down, thankfully.
I really hope that the government is going to regulate the finance industry to stop it getting quite so ridiculous again.But the big adjustment is how people view personal finance. Far too many were buying cars/ homes/ big tvs on the never never. Since credit crunch a lot of people have concentrated on getting debts down, thankfully.
I disagree with the premise of the question. There were no 'good old times'. The UK, like many other countries, was involved in a decade-long credit bubble which came close to bankrupting it.
The apparent prosperity was an illusion built on debt, like someone who drives a Porsche and wears a designer suit, Gucci loafers and a Rolex, all bought on credit cards and HP.
Eventually, there are two options. Debts have to be paid off, or defaulted on via bankruptcy. The UK has chosen the former option, Iceland chose the latter.
Will we learn our lesson? Will we realise that debt-fuelled consumerism and house prices rising >10% per annum are bad things? I doubt it.
The apparent prosperity was an illusion built on debt, like someone who drives a Porsche and wears a designer suit, Gucci loafers and a Rolex, all bought on credit cards and HP.
Eventually, there are two options. Debts have to be paid off, or defaulted on via bankruptcy. The UK has chosen the former option, Iceland chose the latter.
Will we learn our lesson? Will we realise that debt-fuelled consumerism and house prices rising >10% per annum are bad things? I doubt it.
A year to two years should see us at the mid-point between the lows of the last few years and the inevitable start of the next boom that will follow.
As most people have said, anyone wanting to re-live the boom of the mid 2000's thinking that's normal is simply looking forward to a few years of stupidity followed by a crash.
It's entirely a matter of collective perception, there is no set definition of "good times" just the 'new normality' soon we will collectively get used to the world today, confidence will return and all the usual economic indices will improve, as they are an indication of things rather than an instruction on how to act as some people seem to think momentum will drive things faster and faster.
What happens after this will be the measure of if this most recent downturn has taught us anything. If the UK and our leaders re-balances our economy in terms of trade with the rest of the world, uses the opportunities available to aim for 100% employment and puts measures in place to try to let any new debt funded bubble grow slowly and sustainably then we might for the first time since the industrial revolution be able to avoid the boom-bust cycle that has caused so many problems for us and the generations that proceeded us.
But as like every bust that has gone before leaders will try to inflate the next bubble as quickly as possible, get the cash flowing as quickly as possible, make those who want to feel rich by any means, sweep the terminally lazy into the same pile and those who genuinely cannot work and make things look good, and if they don't we'll vote by landslide majority for someone who will.
As most people have said, anyone wanting to re-live the boom of the mid 2000's thinking that's normal is simply looking forward to a few years of stupidity followed by a crash.
It's entirely a matter of collective perception, there is no set definition of "good times" just the 'new normality' soon we will collectively get used to the world today, confidence will return and all the usual economic indices will improve, as they are an indication of things rather than an instruction on how to act as some people seem to think momentum will drive things faster and faster.
What happens after this will be the measure of if this most recent downturn has taught us anything. If the UK and our leaders re-balances our economy in terms of trade with the rest of the world, uses the opportunities available to aim for 100% employment and puts measures in place to try to let any new debt funded bubble grow slowly and sustainably then we might for the first time since the industrial revolution be able to avoid the boom-bust cycle that has caused so many problems for us and the generations that proceeded us.
But as like every bust that has gone before leaders will try to inflate the next bubble as quickly as possible, get the cash flowing as quickly as possible, make those who want to feel rich by any means, sweep the terminally lazy into the same pile and those who genuinely cannot work and make things look good, and if they don't we'll vote by landslide majority for someone who will.
RealSquirrels said:
isn't it the case that the previous 'boom' was no such thing, just growth driven by credit. I wonder when the last 'organic' growth occured...
Most booms are just that, consumer / business confidence grows meaning borrowing and spending follows leading to increased confidence as the economy grows with the spending until *something* happens to knock confidence and the cycle goes in reverse. You don't really get 'organic' growth without increased spending, even if it's on the most honourable of things like R&D, staff and expansion. Business and Consumers can of course grow their business / assets organically by using their increased income, but they'll be left behind by the others who use credit to grow quicker.
If we only wanted 'organic' growth we would as a nation have to decide limit the availability of credit by law, but unless the rest of the world did the same we would be left behind in terms of growth.
sorry, my question was misleading. Of course, I recognise the role that borrowing has to play in driving growth - it allows companies to expand, large capital purchases to be made, etc. etc., but I think most people would say the previous 'boom' was characterised by an over-reliance on credit. So I meant was: When was the last 'boom' that was accompanied by sustainable borrowing?
RealSquirrels said:
sorry, my question was misleading. Of course, I recognise the role that borrowing has to play in driving growth - it allows companies to expand, large capital purchases to be made, etc. etc., but I think most people would say the previous 'boom' was characterised by an over-reliance on credit. So I meant was: When was the last 'boom' that was accompanied by sustainable borrowing?
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