What will be worth more in 3 years?

[matt21]

What will be worth more in three years with 30,000 miles in your opinion

2016 M4 DCT with average spec
2016 M2 DCT with base spec

Even with discount M2 is almost £10,000 cheaper

I would hope both would still fetch £30,000

Thoughts?

[TDK]

matt21 said:

I would hope both would still fetch £30,000

I doubt it! My guess is the M4 will be £27,000 and the M2 will be £24,000

Now, we've just got to wait 3 years to see if I'm right! What do I win if I get it right?! :-)

[jonah35]

The m2 I reckon as the 1m has held its value well but that's just a guess

[matt21]

TDK said:

I doubt it! My guess is the M4 will be £27,000 and the M2 will be £24,000

Now, we've just got to wait 3 years to see if I'm right! What do I win if I get it right?! :-)

I think that's a bit low when you look at 3 year old M3s. if you are right I'll wait 3yrs!

[Babw]

Depends on the magazine reviews/groups tests and the internet hype.

[Max Maxasson]

If they over supply the M2 and heavily discount it like the M3/4 then its anyones guess what each will be worth.
Interesting that older E92 M3s are firming up in price, they will start to cross over soon at this rate.

[andyman_2006]

matt21 said:

What will be worth more in three years with 30,000 miles in your opinion

2016 M4 DCT with average spec
2016 M2 DCT with base spec

Even with discount M2 is almost £10,000 cheaper

I would hope both would still fetch £30,000

Thoughts?

---

If your worried about re-sale values, maybe buying a used low miles 1M is the way to go? In orange they are very low numbers, and you'd lose very little money, given that the values are now more than they were new in 2011.

I only wish I'd bought a 1M when i was offered a build slot, in orange, i could have run it for 3 years added 40K miles and got my money back....oh well.

The M2 and M3/4 will be over supplied, as the 1M was Ltd edition, and as such M2's values may suffer, i dont think the M4 is a good investment option, but if you like the car and can justify losing 20K in 2 years then go for it.

Andy

[andyman_2006]

matt21 said:

TDK said:

I doubt it! My guess is the M4 will be £27,000 and the M2 will be £24,000

Now, we've just got to wait 3 years to see if I'm right! What do I win if I get it right?! :-)

I think that's a bit low when you look at 3 year old M3s. if you are right I'll wait 3yrs!

---

If you look at the used M4 cars on Autotrader, 14 plate cars are now the low/mid £40k's and thats a drop from £63K retail and this is without checking specs, could be more retail, its a lot of money to lose in a short period, but many who buy/PCP/lease them may not care, just as someone who buys a new range rover wouldn't care how much it dropped in 2 years. I care though, I'm guessing you do as well from your post!

I'm no longer buying new cars, and when i send back my 2013 1 series coupe in April, I'm not buying another new BMW on PCP. The best buys are used cars i think, its not for everyone but for me now it seems the best way forward.

Andy

[dufflecoat]

The M2 is being made in volume, as the M3/4, so depreciatation will the same/similar.

Initial supply will be slow, as ever, then it will unplug in 2017.

Look to M235i and M3 residuals for indicator rather than 1M.

[48Valves]

jonah35 said:

The m2 I reckon as the 1m has held its value well but that's just a guess

Can't see that happening. 1M was a limited production run, whereas the M2 is not.

I will look forward to a £24k M2 in 3 years time.

[matt21]

I think M2 will be much worse than 1M, but better % than M4 especially if they update the M4 and fix the issues

Think I'll hold off til next spring to gauge demand.

Secretly hope you can get an M2 for £24k in 3 yrs, proper bargain!

Edited by matt21 on Wednesday 24th February 17:35

[BenjiA]

Given that UK supply is rumoured to be 500 this year and 500 next, I'm expecting the M" to hold it's value well until 2018..after that, if they ramp up production, who knows?

[Olf]

matt21 said:

What will be worth more in three years with 30,000 miles in your opinion

2016 M4 DCT with average spec
2016 M2 DCT with base spec

Even with discount M2 is almost £10,000 cheaper

I would hope both would still fetch £30,000

Thoughts?

Why not ask BMW for PCP quotes for both and see what balloon they propose?

[Thorny]

I can tell you that the residual on a DCT 14 plate M4 coupe after 4 years is just over £21k if that's any help

[JNW1]

Olf said:

Why not ask BMW for PCP quotes for both and see what balloon they propose?

In principal I agree that gives a rough idea of residuals but BMW will also be guessing where the M2's concerned and they don't always get it right on relatively low volume models; a more extreme example than the M2 but their balloons on the 1M PCP deals weren't a very accurate predictor of residual values!!

[Olf]

JNW1 said:

Olf said:

Why not ask BMW for PCP quotes for both and see what balloon they propose?

In principal I agree that gives a rough idea of residuals but BMW will also be guessing where the M2's concerned and they don't always get it right on relatively low volume models; a more extreme example than the M2 but their balloons on the 1M PCP deals weren't a very accurate predictor of residual values!!

Sure - buts that's all upside, surely OP is more concerned about downside which is what the guaranteed future value or balloon number will bracket so he can make his decision?

[Tuvra]

BenjiA said:

Given that UK supply is rumoured to be 500 this year and 500 next, I'm expecting the M" to hold it's value well until 2018..after that, if they ramp up production, who knows?

I've read that too. As the car is semi produced on its own line and then incorporated into the main 2 Series line surely there isn't much room for making that many M2's?

If we say 500 in 2016, 500 in 2017, that means they have to produce 1,766 cars on average for the next 3 years ('18, '19 & '20) just to be at the 6,300 figure of the 1M. This is based on production ceasing in 2020, another fact/rumour I read somewhere. Also they are supposed to be making a MAXIMUM number of 13,800 cars within its lifetime, how many F80/F82's will be made in their lifetime? As an example, 40k E90/E92's were supposedly sold. Therefore even if they make the maximum cars there will probably be roughly 4 M3/M4's for every M2.

My guess is the M3/M4 will drop just like every other M3 before it, the M2 will drop much slower to late twenties before firming up as production comes to and end in 2010. After production ceases I can see it instantly (but slowly) start to appreciate, especially Manual cars and especially in what ever the rarest colour proves to be at the end of production.

As for the basic answer, at a guess:

M4: £35,000
M2: £36,500

All IMHO of course

[Max Maxasson]

Short supply of M2s will make a massive difference.
For info...worldwide there were ~65,000 E9x M3s built of which around 7,000 came to the UK (IIRC)...and I think there was some restricted production during the run because of the financial crisis.
I would disagree about manual M2s with rare colours being more desirable in the long run...at least if its anything like the E9x M3 where manuals take quite a hit and are hard to sell.
Down the line...Best seller will be a high spec very low mileage DCT in the most popular colour (preferably with a comp pack and as a limited edition model, when that comes out).

Edited by Max Maxasson on Thursday 25th February 08:47

[Tuvra]

I just think this is the last generation of manual M cars which is why they will be worth more long term, granted not in the short term discussed by the OP, probably more like 5 years down the line.

I think once they stop producing manual M Cars the price will climb, just like Ferrari's, Aston's and soon Porsche...

[JNW1]

Olf said:

JNW1 said:

Olf said:

Why not ask BMW for PCP quotes for both and see what balloon they propose?

In principal I agree that gives a rough idea of residuals but BMW will also be guessing where the M2's concerned and they don't always get it right on relatively low volume models; a more extreme example than the M2 but their balloons on the 1M PCP deals weren't a very accurate predictor of residual values!!

Sure - buts that's all upside, surely OP is more concerned about downside which is what the guaranteed future value or balloon number will bracket so he can make his decision?

The OP asked which car would be worth more and all I was saying was that a GFV on a PCP won't necessarily tell you that, especially on a relatively low volume new model like an M2. Providing you haven't gone over the agreed mileage - and providing the car's in reasonable condition - the GFV will indeed give you worst case scenario but I'm not sure that's what the OP was after (think he was more wondering where people thought the residuals of the M2 were likely to be?). I think someone quoted on the other M2 thread a GFV of £15k at the end of 4 years but it wasn't clear what mileage that was based on and frankly it didn't sound terribly impressive bearing in mind the GFV on a standard M235i is over £14k based on 48 months and 8k miles/annum; made me wonder whether the figures quoted for the M2 had actually come from BMWFS!