SDSR 2015 - What Will Happen?
Discussion
Due at the end of November by the sounds of things. What's folks thoughts on what will happen?
In my opinion, I think the Army will take the biggest hit this time round. They have in the past been protected by conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan where we had mass boots on the ground. I cant see us putting troops into Syria or Iraq other than a small training contingent or SF.
Closely followed will be the Royal Navy, perhaps with a cut in numbers of both personnel and ships.
The only winners this time round will be the RAF I think. Already reduced in numbers, there is little more you could cut without an impact on operational output in terms of manning.
In terms of aircraft, I think we will see a reintroduction of maritime patrol. The Boeing P8 Poseidon, The Kawasaki P1, the Casa 295 and the Lockheed C130 are all in the running but I think we will play it safe by ordering the P8. It makes sense in terms of inter operability with the USA.
I can also see a reprieve in some form for the Tornado GR4. Its the backbone of Ops at the moment and the Typhoon is struggling to come close to the capability that it provides. The Typhoon may be in for an increase in squadrons. I think some of the Tranche 1 aircraft that were due to be retired/sold on as the newer variants come on line will be kept on, perhaps solely as air defence.
Finally, I can see the opening of one or two RAF bases closed in the last few years. The plan to move the school of technical training to Lyneham has fallen through and Brize is struggling with capacity at the moment. Perhaps a move back for some AT assets such as the C130.
The new MPA aircraft will also need a home and both Kinloss and Leuchars have been touted. Waddington is also a possibility however, it makes sense to keep them as far North as possible.
Just my thoughts.
In my opinion, I think the Army will take the biggest hit this time round. They have in the past been protected by conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan where we had mass boots on the ground. I cant see us putting troops into Syria or Iraq other than a small training contingent or SF.
Closely followed will be the Royal Navy, perhaps with a cut in numbers of both personnel and ships.
The only winners this time round will be the RAF I think. Already reduced in numbers, there is little more you could cut without an impact on operational output in terms of manning.
In terms of aircraft, I think we will see a reintroduction of maritime patrol. The Boeing P8 Poseidon, The Kawasaki P1, the Casa 295 and the Lockheed C130 are all in the running but I think we will play it safe by ordering the P8. It makes sense in terms of inter operability with the USA.
I can also see a reprieve in some form for the Tornado GR4. Its the backbone of Ops at the moment and the Typhoon is struggling to come close to the capability that it provides. The Typhoon may be in for an increase in squadrons. I think some of the Tranche 1 aircraft that were due to be retired/sold on as the newer variants come on line will be kept on, perhaps solely as air defence.
Finally, I can see the opening of one or two RAF bases closed in the last few years. The plan to move the school of technical training to Lyneham has fallen through and Brize is struggling with capacity at the moment. Perhaps a move back for some AT assets such as the C130.
The new MPA aircraft will also need a home and both Kinloss and Leuchars have been touted. Waddington is also a possibility however, it makes sense to keep them as far North as possible.
Just my thoughts.
New MPA would be good, where to base them is the issue. Chances are it would be Waddinton as there should be space freed up there when Sentinel goes. It's not like we're going to have a huge fleet of MPA, if needed they can easily deploy to lossie if they need to. That would keep all the surveillance AC in one place, reducing costs and making spares easier to manage.
The Hercs are scheduled to be replaced be Atlas so they won't be moving anywhere - especially as Lyneham is now a Solar Farm.
Lyneham's days are over for aircraft ops, unless they use a crop duster to clean the solar panels.
Army could / should be in for some reductions this time, the Navy apparently have little scope for more reductions - though there was something not long ago about them not having enough bodies to operate the first Carrier that's due soon. Getting rid of a few ships would free up some people i suppose.
The Hercs are scheduled to be replaced be Atlas so they won't be moving anywhere - especially as Lyneham is now a Solar Farm.
Lyneham's days are over for aircraft ops, unless they use a crop duster to clean the solar panels.
Army could / should be in for some reductions this time, the Navy apparently have little scope for more reductions - though there was something not long ago about them not having enough bodies to operate the first Carrier that's due soon. Getting rid of a few ships would free up some people i suppose.
Herkybird said:
New MPA would be good, where to base them is the issue. Chances are it would be Waddinton as there should be space freed up there when Sentinel goes. It's not like we're going to have a huge fleet of MPA, if needed they can easily deploy to lossie if they need to.
The Hercs are scheduled to be replaced be Atlas so they won't be moving anywhere - especially as Lyneham is now a Solar Farm.
Lyneham's days are over for aircraft ops, unless they use a crop duster to clean the solar panels.
I didn't know Lyneham was now a solar farm, little chance of that being opened up again then.The Hercs are scheduled to be replaced be Atlas so they won't be moving anywhere - especially as Lyneham is now a Solar Farm.
Lyneham's days are over for aircraft ops, unless they use a crop duster to clean the solar panels.
The RAF air transport fleet is still heavily overstretched and at this time, it probably can't live without the C130. The C17 was bought as a stop gap due to the constant delays with the A400 programme. I can see the A400 being used to compliment rather than replace the C130. The C17 is more in need of replacement rather than the C130.
As for Sentinel, its proved its worth time and time again and has already had a reprieve. Its due to stay in service until 2018 but I can see that being pushed even further back.
Herkybird said:
That would keep all the surveillance AC in one place, reducing costs and making spares easier to manage.
I can see the benefits in keeping all ISTAR aircraft at the one base but unless we buy an MPA based on a frame we already use at Waddo, it wouldn't make much difference in terms of pooling spares.Edited by Martin43 on Thursday 29th October 13:04
"The RAF air transport fleet is still heavily overstretched and at this time, it probably can't live without the C130. The C17 was bought as a stop gap due to the constant delays with the A400 programme. I can see the A400 being used to compliment rather than replace the C130. The C17 is more in need of replacement rather than the C130."
I applied for 'Atlas' when it was originally due in (that was a while ago, it was supposed to start delivery in 2009) and then C17 (as i was based at Lyneham at the time). The delays have been ridiculous for Atlas but it's on it's way now, slowly. The herc's we have left (J's) should have loads of life in them but they've been flogged to death in the last 10 years and the C-17s are in the same boat. The C-17 production line is scheduled to close at the end of the year and that'll be that. Unless a huge order comes in before then Boeing won't be keeping that going. The plan has always been for the Atlas to replace the Herc J, i can't see them getting anything else, certainly no more C17s, though they might keep a small fleet of J's for certain jobs the Atlas can't do, at least for a while.
"I can see the benefits in keeping all ISTAR aircraft at the one base but unless we buy an MPA based on a frame we already use at Waddo, it wouldn't make much difference in terms of pooling spares."
I was thinking more of a centralised base for spares and maintenance. These days the cost of keeping a station open and manned for approx 8 aircraft won't happen. They can't justify the spend - especially if the base needs work (apparently Kinloss needs a new runway and Leuchars needs work as well). Having one hub saves on costs and makes things easier.
I applied for 'Atlas' when it was originally due in (that was a while ago, it was supposed to start delivery in 2009) and then C17 (as i was based at Lyneham at the time). The delays have been ridiculous for Atlas but it's on it's way now, slowly. The herc's we have left (J's) should have loads of life in them but they've been flogged to death in the last 10 years and the C-17s are in the same boat. The C-17 production line is scheduled to close at the end of the year and that'll be that. Unless a huge order comes in before then Boeing won't be keeping that going. The plan has always been for the Atlas to replace the Herc J, i can't see them getting anything else, certainly no more C17s, though they might keep a small fleet of J's for certain jobs the Atlas can't do, at least for a while.
"I can see the benefits in keeping all ISTAR aircraft at the one base but unless we buy an MPA based on a frame we already use at Waddo, it wouldn't make much difference in terms of pooling spares."
I was thinking more of a centralised base for spares and maintenance. These days the cost of keeping a station open and manned for approx 8 aircraft won't happen. They can't justify the spend - especially if the base needs work (apparently Kinloss needs a new runway and Leuchars needs work as well). Having one hub saves on costs and makes things easier.
"Having one hub saves on costs and makes things easier."
Well no it doesn't.
The bean counters will tell you that, but from an operational point of view, putting vall your eggs in one basket, mi8xing Strat and Tac AT seriously degrades operational efficiency.
The evidence was there with the 'Options for Change' Defence Review and especially with the 'Front Line First#; slash and burn review.
As for your commebts abour P8.....
Well no it doesn't.
The bean counters will tell you that, but from an operational point of view, putting vall your eggs in one basket, mi8xing Strat and Tac AT seriously degrades operational efficiency.
The evidence was there with the 'Options for Change' Defence Review and especially with the 'Front Line First#; slash and burn review.
As for your commebts abour P8.....
Ginetta G15 Girl said:
"Having one hub saves on costs and makes things easier."
Well no it doesn't.
The bean counters will tell you that, but from an operational point of view, putting vall your eggs in one basket, mi8xing Strat and Tac AT seriously degrades operational efficiency.
The evidence was there with the 'Options for Change' Defence Review and especially with the 'Front Line First#; slash and burn review.
As for your commebts abour P8.....
'Fin doomed, 2019 scrapheap. Well no it doesn't.
The bean counters will tell you that, but from an operational point of view, putting vall your eggs in one basket, mi8xing Strat and Tac AT seriously degrades operational efficiency.
The evidence was there with the 'Options for Change' Defence Review and especially with the 'Front Line First#; slash and burn review.
As for your commebts abour P8.....
High, three figure, millions quote to go to ensure typhoon can do it all, even if it's physically, digitally, nearly, almost, perhaps, impossible.
INDUSTRY [seeing opportunity, bit like [still] useless grey flattops]says this is the plan.
See F-35.
Kershring.
MPA resurrected as a flight sim on a [high end] PC.
PS I am peter pan btw but I'm getting very tired...
Edited by Mojocvh on Sunday 1st November 01:05
Herkybird said:
"The RAF air transport fleet is still heavily overstretched and at this time, it probably can't live without the C130. The C17 was bought as a stop gap due to the constant delays with the A400 programme. I can see the A400 being used to compliment rather than replace the C130. The C17 is more in need of replacement rather than the C130."
I applied for 'Atlas' when it was originally due in (that was a while ago, it was supposed to start delivery in 2009) and then C17 (as i was based at Lyneham at the time). The delays have been ridiculous for Atlas but it's on it's way now, slowly. The herc's we have left (J's) should have loads of life in them but they've been flogged to death in the last 10 years and the C-17s are in the same boat. The C-17 production line is scheduled to close at the end of the year and that'll be that. Unless a huge order comes in before then Boeing won't be keeping that going. The plan has always been for the Atlas to replace the Herc J, i can't see them getting anything else, certainly no more C17s, though they might keep a small fleet of J's for certain jobs the Atlas can't do, at least for a while.
"I can see the benefits in keeping all ISTAR aircraft at the one base but unless we buy an MPA based on a frame we already use at Waddo, it wouldn't make much difference in terms of pooling spares."
I was thinking more of a centralised base for spares and maintenance. These days the cost of keeping a station open and manned for approx 8 aircraft won't happen. They can't justify the spend - especially if the base needs work (apparently Kinloss needs a new runway and Leuchars needs work as well). Having one hub saves on costs and makes things easier.
C17s are certainly not in need of replacement. There is at least another 25 years left in the ones the RAF has (remember that a couple of them are only a few years old). The C17s haven't been flogged in terms of fatigue - as the C-130s have - and their airframes could probably go way beyond 2040. The recent upgrades also bring them up to date in terms of avionics.I applied for 'Atlas' when it was originally due in (that was a while ago, it was supposed to start delivery in 2009) and then C17 (as i was based at Lyneham at the time). The delays have been ridiculous for Atlas but it's on it's way now, slowly. The herc's we have left (J's) should have loads of life in them but they've been flogged to death in the last 10 years and the C-17s are in the same boat. The C-17 production line is scheduled to close at the end of the year and that'll be that. Unless a huge order comes in before then Boeing won't be keeping that going. The plan has always been for the Atlas to replace the Herc J, i can't see them getting anything else, certainly no more C17s, though they might keep a small fleet of J's for certain jobs the Atlas can't do, at least for a while.
"I can see the benefits in keeping all ISTAR aircraft at the one base but unless we buy an MPA based on a frame we already use at Waddo, it wouldn't make much difference in terms of pooling spares."
I was thinking more of a centralised base for spares and maintenance. These days the cost of keeping a station open and manned for approx 8 aircraft won't happen. They can't justify the spend - especially if the base needs work (apparently Kinloss needs a new runway and Leuchars needs work as well). Having one hub saves on costs and makes things easier.
The Boeing production will end very soon with circa 3 frames unsold and no more to come. As we stand though, there is nothing else that can give the RAF the flexibility afforded by the C17 in terms of moving big stuff in and out of nasty places at the drop of a hat.
When it comes to moving stuff of any size, the A400M is frankly embarrassing given how big it looks on the outside. It's the flying equivalent of a BMW X6!
The A400M is great at air shows but the C130 is going to take some replacing.
///ajd said:
Total nonsense. The A400m is miles bigger than a C130. Where do you pick up this crap?
Show me where I said it wasn't. Given the A400M is only a few feet shorter (in height) than a C17 and its external fuselage isn't much narrower, it just looks tiny when you get inside, hence my point about it being a retardis. When it comes to tactical ops (and this is a key capability) the C-130 is superb and will take some replacing - never said it couldn't be replaced (before you mis-read this too) - it will just be difficult.
///ajd said:
If you've been in one you should know better than to talk such twaddle.
You only have to look at many of the recent ied protected vehicles that are now the norm in the army - and which will never ever fit in the lets face it pretty pokey herc - to realise times have moved on.
And you my friend are talking complete crap if you think tactical ops are all about fitting in the vehicles to which you refer. Lets just see how long it takes for the Atlas to take the Tactical mantle from that pokey Herc.You only have to look at many of the recent ied protected vehicles that are now the norm in the army - and which will never ever fit in the lets face it pretty pokey herc - to realise times have moved on.
And compared to a C17 (which was my point about relative external size) the inside of the Atlas is indeed tiny
PAUL500 said:
well they re tarmaced the runway at St Athan just before they then got shot of the VC10s and closed the superhanger, so you never know.
MOD having been doing that sort of nonsense for decades though. Isn't it a long standing joke that anytime a base has a shed load of money spent on it or a runway resurfaced, the rumours start that the base is due for closure.Gassing Station | Boats, Planes & Trains | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff