Anyone got weather data 30th Dec - Southend Airport?

[Escapegoat]

Just wondering if anyone here has access to better weather forecasts than I can see at the Beeb/Google?

Have a big birthday celebration tomorrow with a trial flying lesson booked for my sister at 10:00am at Southend airport. Glorious here (Cambridge) today, but there was some fog yesterday evening and it looks like the weather may about to change a bit. So I wondered if any flying folk have access to relevant weather data and/or some insight as to how likely/unlikely the lesson would be to proceed.

(Of course, I realise this is subject to change and the instructor has the ultimate say. We can rebook the lesson during the next 6 months if so.)

It's just that there are 10 of us and this is the start of the whole day, so any insight at all would be useful to help me plan the day.

TIA.

[Martin4356111]

This is the current TAF and METAR for Southend. Only valid until midnight but gives you an idea.

METAR for: EGMC (Southend Arpt, --, UK)
Text: EGMC 291050Z 00000KT CAVOK 04/03 Q1038
Temperature: 4.0°C ( 39°F)
Dewpoint: 3.0°C ( 37°F) [RH = 93%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.65 inches Hg (1038.0 mb)
Winds: calm
Visibility: 6 or more sm (10+ km)
Ceiling: ceiling and visibility are OK
Clouds: unknown

TAF for: EGMC (Southend Arpt, --, UK) issued at 1057 UTC 29 Dec 2016
Text: TAF EGMC 291057Z 2912/2921 15005KT CAVOK
Forecast period: 1200 to 1800 UTC 29 December 2016
Forecast type: FROM: standard forecast or significant change
Winds: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more sm (10+ km)
Clouds: missing
Weather: NSW (no significant weather)
Text: PROB30
Forecast period: 1200 to 1800 UTC 29 December 2016
Forecast type: TEMPORARY: The following changes expected for less than half the time period
Visibility: 5 sm ( 8 km)
Clouds: missing
Text: TEMPO 2912/2918 8000
Forecast period: 1800 to 2100 UTC 29 December 2016
Forecast type: BECOMING: Conditions expected to become as follows by 2100 UTC 29 December 2016
Winds: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: 3 sm ( 5 km)
Clouds: missing
Weather: BR (mist)

[ecsrobin]

Martin4356111 said:

This is the current TAF and METAR for Southend. Only valid until midnight but gives you an idea.

METAR for: EGMC (Southend Arpt, --, UK)
Text: EGMC 291050Z 00000KT CAVOK 04/03 Q1038
Temperature: 4.0°C ( 39°F)
Dewpoint: 3.0°C ( 37°F) [RH = 93%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.65 inches Hg (1038.0 mb)
Winds: calm
Visibility: 6 or more sm (10+ km)
Ceiling: ceiling and visibility are OK
Clouds: unknown

TAF for: EGMC (Southend Arpt, --, UK) issued at 1057 UTC 29 Dec 2016
Text: TAF EGMC 291057Z 2912/2921 15005KT CAVOK
Forecast period: 1200 to 1800 UTC 29 December 2016
Forecast type: FROM: standard forecast or significant change
Winds: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more sm (10+ km)
Clouds: missing
Weather: NSW (no significant weather)
Text: PROB30
Forecast period: 1200 to 1800 UTC 29 December 2016
Forecast type: TEMPORARY: The following changes expected for less than half the time period
Visibility: 5 sm ( 8 km)
Clouds: missing
Text: TEMPO 2912/2918 8000
Forecast period: 1800 to 2100 UTC 29 December 2016
Forecast type: BECOMING: Conditions expected to become as follows by 2100 UTC 29 December 2016
Winds: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: 3 sm ( 5 km)
Clouds: missing
Weather: BR (mist)

I'll decipher this for you.

A TAF (Terminal aerodrome forecast) is a forecast for the vicinity of the airfield updated every 3 hours, a METAR is the current actual weather updated hourly whilst the airfield is operating.

We can ignore the METAR (meteorological aerodrome report) as that's already out of date. Although if the bulb temperature and the dew point temperature are within 2 degrees of each other and there's a lack of wind there's a potential for fog to form so can be of use with the most recent one on the day.

The TAF is useful although doesn't cover the time period for flying tomorrow it's indicating a 30% probability of mist by 2100 tonight.

I'll upload the latest TAF later today when it becomes available for you and decipher it. However if you have an iPhone I recommend AeroWeather which can give you this information.

[Escapegoat]

Thanks both - that's very useful. I think the flying club is not so busy, and the lesson can slip an hour if the forecast makes it look likely. For sure the 'consumer' weather forecast is for early fog.

No iPhone, but will see if there's an android version of the app.

[ecsrobin]

Currently in work (aviation based) and my weather system is showing no weather warnings for southend. Rochester (other side of the water shows fog from 2100-2359 tonight only so you may be in luck.

Checking my visibility forecast overnight potential to drop at Southend to around 350metres although by 1000 looking at 3000m-5000m.

We currently have an area of high pressure centres over the whole south so that can mean light winds (possible fog) but settled conditions.

Hopefully the conditions are good and you all have a nice day.

Edited to add new warnings:

Fog 0001 - 0600 30th Dec freezing fog visibility less than 600m
Frost 0001 - 0600 30th Dec ground and air frost expected

Edited by ecsrobin on Thursday 29th December 18:47

[Escapegoat]

Thanks - you're a star. Much appreciated. Fingers are crossed that it's clear enough by 10am.

[stevesingo]

The Met Office have a weather station on Southend Airport.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecas...

[djc206]

200m vis and clouds at 100ft. Not looking good at the moment I'm afraid.

[ecsrobin]

Looking at the latest TAF the best weathers this afternoon at 5000m vis!

[Flooble]

Well, I suppose it would be legal ...

[Geneve]

Next week looks considerably better.

A crisp clear day with blue sky, light winds and good viz will make all the difference to the enjoyment and benefit of the flight

[Willy Nilly]

It was foggy all day. And cold and miserable.

[ecsrobin]

Willy Nilly said:

It was foggy all day. And cold and miserable.

Sorry to hear that.

[Escapegoat]

Well, as you already know, it was foggy all day, so the flight obviously couldn't go ahead. We had a false flash of optimism driving past Duxford on the way - perfectly clear with the orange sun visible on the horizon.

But the rest of the day went well, and we'll rearrange in a couple of months.

Thanks for your advice though!