is the era of cheap flight at an end?

[irocfan]

With (potentially) a number of airlines going bust and even the healthiest making cuts does this mean the era of cheap flights is over - I would imagine that for the next 12 months prices are going to increase given the amount of people who'll want to go somewhere warm/exotic/luxurious?

[DailyHack]

Yeah most likely, the price will rise, but don't think it will stop people flying just means paying more.

[Simpo Two]

I was thinking of it more in terms of reduced passenger load from more spacing. If you have half the passengers they have to pay twice as much.

But one day the virus will be gone or irrelevant and things will go back to pretty much as before. People like affordable travel; there will always be demand.

[rs1952]

Whether it is an airline ticket or a new car or a can of peas in Sainsbury's, ultimarely the price will be whatever the maximun is that people are willing to pay for it.

[Mark V GTD]

Indeed - affordability comes in to it too. If that £35 Ryanair fare rises to £60 most people will still travel. A long haul fare rising from say £600 to £1,000 will put a lot of people off.

[Tony1963]

I’d guess that there’ll be tax increases on the increased fares. It ain’t gonna be pleasant.

[MB140]

I can see them having to keep prices fairly low to entice people back to flying.

I for one am not happy with the idea of

a) Having to turn up to an airport 5,6,7 hours before a flight to get past security due to social distancing. I also don’t think a face mask is going to be much help in highly congested areas so having to wear a face mask for 8 hours in the airport then 7 hours n a flight is not in any way appealing.

b) Sitting in a tin can at 30,000 ft for long periods breathing recycled air. I work in aviation (Avionics) so all this bks about hospital grade filtration systems is just that bks. If it’s on a surface it’s on a surface.

c) Paying a shed load of money for the privilege of flying.

I might as well take my car and drive to the south of France/Spain/Italy and make it part of the holiday.

The only way they would entice me to fly for a holiday is make it cheap. And I mean really cheap.

I understand some have to travel for business but I can see a lot more being done by video etc. Those that have to travel will just have to pay.

As a side note I have 14 days booked in cape Verdi in October. I would rather it gets cancelled to be honest. I really don’t fancy flying until there is a vaccine unless I have to.

I would then take the money and drive somewhere. The wife has family that own a small vineyard in the south of France. Sounds perfect to me.

[Simpo Two]

rs1952 said:

Whether it is an airline ticket or a new car or a can of peas in Sainsbury's, ultimarely the price will be whatever the maximun is that people are willing to pay for it.

Yes, until you bring in the factor of competition.

MB140 said:

b) Sitting in a tin can at 30,000 ft for long periods breathing recycled air.

As far as France is concerned, yes, you can drive. But you can't drive to America or Australia etc.

Perhaps sir would like to travel properly and take an ocean liner. Your own room, decent food and unlimited fresh air

[tangerine_sedge]

I think this depends on how many airlines remain in business and the capacity across the industry.

The demand to fly will be there once restrictions are lifted, but if there are fewer airlines and reduced capacity then prices will increase. If there is a glut of seats, then prices will be reduced.

This might massively shake up the industry with a bunch of current incumbents going under, then a whole host of new entrants when the restrictions are lifted to fill the demand.

Interesting times ahead, but I wouldn't want to be the CEO of either an airline or an aircraft manufacturer today!

[mickyh7]

Simpo Two said:

As far as France is concerned, yes, you can drive. But you can't drive to America or Australia etc.

Perhaps sir would like to travel properly and take an ocean liner. Your own room, decent food and unlimited fresh air

What, spend six weeks on a Toilet with 1000 other people suffering from diarrhoea! Where's the Fresh Air when your Cabin bound?
I think Cruise Ships are about finished after this years news.
I wouldn't go near one.

[Tony1963]

tangerine_sedge said:

The demand to fly will be there once restrictions are lifted, but if there are fewer airlines and reduced capacity then prices will increase. If there is a glut of seats, then prices will be reduced.

A worldwide recession might put paid to that theory. Yes, there’ll be people who have to travel, but holidays abroad are a luxury that will be ditched if tens of millions across the developed world lose their jobs.

[irocfan]

mickyh7 said:

What, spend six weeks on a Toilet with 1000 other people suffering from diarrhoea! Where's the Fresh Air when your Cabin bound?
I think Cruise Ships are about finished after this years news.
I wouldn't go near one.

If you're cabin bound then you open the balcony door and sit out there. I'll agree that an inside cabin would be suboptimal though

[aeropilot]

MB140 said:

I can see them having to keep prices fairly low to entice people back to flying.

I for one am not happy with the idea of

a) Having to turn up to an airport 5,6,7 hours before a flight to get past security due to social distancing. I also don’t think a face mask is going to be much help in highly congested areas so having to wear a face mask for 8 hours in the airport then 7 hours n a flight is not in any way appealing.

b) Sitting in a tin can at 30,000 ft for long periods breathing recycled air. I work in aviation (Avionics) so all this bks about hospital grade filtration systems is just that bks. If it’s on a surface it’s on a surface.

c) Paying a shed load of money for the privilege of flying.

I might as well take my car and drive to the south of France/Spain/Italy and make it part of the holiday.

The only way they would entice me to fly for a holiday is make it cheap. And I mean really cheap.

I understand some have to travel for business but I can see a lot more being done by video etc. Those that have to travel will just have to pay.

As a side note I have 14 days booked in cape Verdi in October. I would rather it gets cancelled to be honest. I really don’t fancy flying until there is a vaccine unless I have to.

I would then take the money and drive somewhere. The wife has family that own a small vineyard in the south of France. Sounds perfect to me.

Can't argue with any of that, and even as someone that has now lost their job at Heathrow, I have no intention of getting on a plane at any time in the next 12 months, or until it starts to become more clear where we will be long term with this virus, as I don't share the optimistic view that many have that this will 'just' disappear, or that there will ever be an effective vaccine, given its ability to mutate.

[sunbeam alpine]

Given the environmental impact of aviation, I hope it is. There seems to me something fundamentally wrong when 2 return flights to pretty much anywhere in Europe costs less than parking the car at the airport*.

• Ryanair, Charleroi - can't speak for too many other locations.

[Simpo Two]

mickyh7 said:

What, spend six weeks on a Toilet with 1000 other people suffering from diarrhoea!

That's the sort of thing people who've never been on one say... that and 'You have to wear a DJ and have dinner with the Captain... '

[mickyh7]

Simpo Two said:

mickyh7 said:

What, spend six weeks on a Toilet with 1000 other people suffering from diarrhoea!

That's the sort of thing people who've never been on one say... that and 'You have to wear a DJ and have dinner with the Captain... '

Only repeating what's been on the News.
They have had terrible press coverage for illness recently.
And to spend a whole Holiday stuck with people you may not like?
No thank you.
We sailed past 5 or 6 huge Cruise Ships, moored in Barcelona Harbour last year, and they really do cram those Cabins in!
I'll bet they were 12 maybe 15 floors high, like High Rise Flats
Obviously, each to their own.

[J4CKO]

Tony1963 said:

I’d guess that there’ll be tax increases on the increased fares. It ain’t gonna be pleasant.

The economy wont get going again if everything gets taxed to death, and the economy needs to get going again.

People will want to fly, if its a bit dearer, most will swallow a bit of a fare hike but just not go in a lot of cases if its too expensive.

Airplanes are cramped for a reason, space is expensive for a reason and distancing on one is all but impossible on one to make any difference, that doesnt also render the economics unworkable.

The tourist resorts, hotels and all the rest of the support industries will want people in. If people cant go, they die so packages will need to be affordable.

the lockdown is already easing rightly or wrongly and it all comes down to money, people who are otherwise fit and not elderly will take their chances on a packed flight, those more vulnerable may be more cautious, if they have to travel on a packed bus in the week, a plane wont bother them.

[Tony1963]

Have you lived through a recession before? (Rhetorical question).

‘If’ this is a big worldwide recession, it won’t be a matter of people choosing whether or not to fly, there’ll just be many, many people who just can’t afford it full stop. No job, poorly paid job, inflation, struggling to keep the home, money tight for food. Sitting in an aloominum toob to go to a struggling holiday camp on the Med will be very low on the priority list.

If the recession doesn’t happen, no need to worry.

[Condi]

I for one will be straight on a flight this summer, the virus should not scare most people, and after all this is over people will want a holiday. Sitting on a plane wouldn't bother me.

[RDMcG]

I am sure there will be a huge recession that will last for several years. Every airline is predicting a reduction in flights pretty much. In the event of social distancing that Ryanair model will not be practical. I think you will see major problems with the viability of all airlines, and yes, there may be some short term teaser bargains, but in the long run it is going to be much more expensive.

If there is a reliable vaccine widely available this will slightly reduce my pessimism about the future.