Its all Greek to me?!

[Four Litre]

Is this where is all starts to unravel?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/...

Maybe this is where the financial problems will really come about, all those off balance sheet debts will come to fruition?
What are the implications to the PH collective of Greece defaulting, will it kick off financial armageddon?

Or are we just going to see greece as a cheap holiday destination once again!?

[Blib]

I was listening to BBC World Service. In it, the correspondent pointed out that after a year on the streets, the protesters are fully aware of the consequences of Greece defaulting and are calling for exactly that.

They believe that defaulting will be far less painful for their country than keeping to the onerous repayment regime laid out by The ECB et al.

Interesting times.

[Andy Zarse]

That link was posted some weeks ago on one of the other PIIGS threads. Looking more likely now, as it happens.

I've stated several times over the last year that the ECB/EU/IMF etc have totally underestimated the socio-political aspect of their decisions, having had a suppine electorate to deal with for the last sixty years. I think the people of Athens are going to put an end to that. What happens exactly when the population tells the central bankers to sod off?

Great article straight from the street by Paul Mason of Newsnight here, you might have seen him talking to Paxo last night.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13783420

[ringram]

Who cares, they should have defaulted ages ago. Take a leaf from Iceland's book.

Ireland should have wiped out the banks and bond holders and the UK should have wound down RBS et al.

Moral hazard means nothing if you have your hand in everyone else's pocket.

Austrian Economics FTW!

[EDLT]

Four Litre said:

Is this where is all starts to unravel?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/...

Maybe this is where the financial problems will really come about, all those off balance sheet debts will come to fruition?
What are the implications to the PH collective of Greece defaulting, will it kick off financial armageddon?

Or are we just going to see greece as a cheap holiday destination once again!?

That article sounds a bit end-of-the-worldy to me. Whatever happens will happen by 2013 though, because after that Britain's agreement to help EU bailouts will run out and (assuming the Conservatives are still in power) we won't be signing up to another round. France and Germany can't afford to do the rest by themselves.

[davepoth]

EDLT said:

That article sounds a bit end-of-the-worldy to me. Whatever happens will happen by 2013 though, because after that Britain's agreement to help EU bailouts will run out and (assuming the Conservatives are still in power) we won't be signing up to another round. France and Germany can't afford to do the rest by themselves.

It'll collapse before then. Greece going belly up will make the bond market even more jittery, making it more expensive for the rest of the PIIGS (which I assume will then be PIIS if Greece defaults) to get money. The urge to try and pay it back will be gone too - they'll see Greece freed from the shackles of debt and want the same for themselves.

[EDLT]

davepoth said:

EDLT said:

That article sounds a bit end-of-the-worldy to me. Whatever happens will happen by 2013 though, because after that Britain's agreement to help EU bailouts will run out and (assuming the Conservatives are still in power) we won't be signing up to another round. France and Germany can't afford to do the rest by themselves.

It'll collapse before then. Greece going belly up will make the bond market even more jittery, making it more expensive for the rest of the PIIGS (which I assume will then be PIIS if Greece defaults) to get money. The urge to try and pay it back will be gone too - they'll see Greece freed from the shackles of debt and want the same for themselves.

HA. /immature

[Digga]

davepoth said:

Greece going belly up will make the bond market even more jittery

If all the PIIGS chose this maans of default - and, as has been widely acknowledged for weeks now, Greece is technicallly in default now, it's just a case of how the ECB & IMF wan't to try and dress it up - I wonder what it would mean for sterling?

Would we be next? Or would we appear sufficiently 'sound' by comparison that the currency remained stable? I mean, it's not like the USD is without it's own issues right now and there's only so many ways the rest of the world can hold reserve currency, right?

[Dogwatch]

EDLT said:

we won't be signing up to another round.

Yeah. Right.

This lot - and I voted for them - seem to be as keen to shower our money on any passing begging bowl as the last lot.

[WhoseGeneration]

If Greece either defaults, or leaves the Euro, it will be the end of the "vision".
Because other nations will then have a previous example as justification.

[NoelWatson]

ringram said:

Who cares, they should have defaulted ages ago. Take a leaf from Iceland's book.

When did Iceland default?

[jshell]

So in easy terms it's not really time to spunk 75k on a car? Only partly asked tongue in cheek!

[Steffan]

EDLT said:

Four Litre said:

Is this where is all starts to unravel?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/...

Maybe this is where the financial problems will really come about, all those off balance sheet debts will come to fruition?
What are the implications to the PH collective of Greece defaulting, will it kick off financial armageddon?

Or are we just going to see greece as a cheap holiday destination once again!?

That article sounds a bit end-of-the-worldy to me. Whatever happens will happen by 2013 though, because after that Britain's agreement to help EU bailouts will run out and (assuming the Conservatives are still in power) we won't be signing up to another round. France and Germany can't afford to do the rest by themselves.

I think that this is the essence of the problem.

Individual nations will seek the best solution for themselves.Inevitably.

I cannot see France and Germany bailing out the whole of Europe despite their joint vision of a united Europe. Its unaffordable.

Greece and the PIGS will do whatever is easiest ie involves the least effort overall. I do not think national pride is an issue for these countries. I think they will default whatever the rest of Europe does.

What I cannot establish is what in reality this means?

Riots fires serious unrest and major ructions in Greece?

That's there already.

But can Greece default and continue as a coherent civilised country?

That is the unanswered question in all of this.

And no one seems to really know the answer.

[Andy Zarse]

NoelWatson said:

ringram said:

Who cares, they should have defaulted ages ago. Take a leaf from Iceland's book.

When did Iceland default?

They couldn't afford it!

[ringram]

NoelWatson said:

ringram said:

Who cares, they should have defaulted ages ago. Take a leaf from Iceland's book.

When did Iceland default?

Well renege on obligations anyway. Semantics..

[NoelWatson]

ringram said:

NoelWatson said:

ringram said:

Who cares, they should have defaulted ages ago. Take a leaf from Iceland's book.

When did Iceland default?

Well renege on obligations anyway. Semantics..

it is a lot more than semantics

[Andy Zarse]

NoelWatson said:

ringram said:

NoelWatson said:

ringram said:

Who cares, they should have defaulted ages ago. Take a leaf from Iceland's book.

When did Iceland default?

Well renege on obligations anyway. Semantics..

it is a lot more than semantics

They did what Ireland could have done and let the banks go to the wall. This made the UK and Holland very cross.

[munky]

At work we have been assuming a Greek default for several months now. We are also assuming a Portuguese default within 2 years, and Ireland within 3.

[ringram]

Good. They shouldn't have given money to idiots.
Nanny state bailouts have kicked the can down the road far enough. Time for some responsibility.

[NoelWatson]

ringram said:

Good. They shouldn't have given money to idiots.
Nanny state bailouts have kicked the can down the road far enough. Time for some responsibility.

But where do you stop? Why not raise UK rates now?