Double Dip?

[Fittster]

How quickly after the first recession does the second recession need to occur so it's classed as a double dip recession?

[OdramaSwimLaden]

A general question or are you inferring that the first one is over?

[mattviatura]

Don't know the technical answer but times is very hard at the moment. Just paid out for a website upgrade and am not sure it was a sensible purchase right now.

[NoelWatson]

Fittster said:

How quickly after the first recession does the second recession need to occur so it's classed as a double dip recession?

You mean Great Depression?

[V88Dicky]

Eh?

This isn't the double dipping I was expecting.


Carry on.

[turbobloke]

Euro millions, tonight, £120m, double lucky dip.

Parental advisory: hope is not a strategy, they say.

[fido]

In real terms we are suffering a double drip, 0.5% growth with >5% inflation .. that's numberwang with your f8g money!

[Jackleman]

I think we are heading for another recession this year, possibly worse than the last one.

[Pints]

V88Dicky said:

Eh?

This isn't the double dipping I was expecting.


Carry on.

This thread title promised so much, yet delivered so little.

[oyster]

Jackleman said:

I think we are heading for another recession this year, possibly worse than the last one.

On what basis?

Global growth is not great but there.
Manufacturing growth is strong.
Business investment is decent.
Interest rates are low.

[OdramaSwimLaden]

Jackleman said:

I think we are heading for another recession this year, possibly worse than the last one.

The only saving grace in this recession is that interest rates are so low.....when they start to rise, and they will, there's going to be a lot of home owners out there who are going to be shocked!

The only thing that saved Blair and Brown from being dragged naked, beaten nto death through the streets were the interest rates at an all time low.

There's a massive dog st on the pavement, let's cover it with rose petals and hope it's not too windy whilst we're around. s.

[OdramaSwimLaden]

oyster said:

Jackleman said:

I think we are heading for another recession this year, possibly worse than the last one.

On what basis?

Global growth is not great but there.
Manufacturing growth is strong.
Business investment is decent.
Interest rates are low.

Global growth is not great but there - Not great in the UK at all. Some would dispute it's even here
Manufacturing growth is strong - Not in the UK it's not.
Business investment is decent - Are you suggesting banks are lending businesses money??? SME's etc, etc....
Interest rates are low - Artificially low. When they go up, and they will, do you have a mortgage?

[anonymous-user]

[Jackleman]

oyster said:

On what basis?

Global growth is not great but there.
Manufacturing growth is strong.
Business investment is decent.
Interest rates are low.

Because a lot of the issues that caused the last one have not gone away, they have just moved. The debt issues are still there, look what is happening in Greece. More concerning, look at what the US has to deal with in terms of it's debts! The Eurozone crisis looks pretty grim at best.

The housing bubble here in the UK has a slow leak and hasn't burst properly. China has a massive property bubble that looks close to popping properly.

All the signs from the high street look like things are slowing down here.

Interest rates maybe low, but are the banks really lending? Is this also fuelling inflation which might be having more of a negative impact?

Anyway, it is just my hunch, I was right last time and I hope I am wrong this time.

[crankedup]

Fall out pain from the 2008 crash is only now just beginning to be felt and seen, more high street big names are floundering or gone bust,public services workers are now being made redundant, about another 100,000 or so to go. Interest rates will have to be raised soon and so it goes on. Our private sector will be unable to mop up the unemployed and I cannot see where the growth is coming from that may help heal the wounds. I've just bought my burial grave before it gets to expensive.

[mattviatura]

Jackleman said:

Lots of scary, but true stuff

To paraphrase that ahole Adams, it hasn't gone away you know.

I've just got off the phone with someone I advertise with - they're slashing their rates because business is so bad.

Talking to my competitors they're struggling too.

I hope you're wrong, but suspect you're right.

[Mermaid]

& how have Banks properly marked to market yet? There is a lot of lost value out there organisations are unwilling to recognise.

[Esseesse]

crankedup said:

Public services workers are now being made redundant, about another 100,000 or so to go. Interest rates will have to be raised soon and so it goes on.

Do you think the increase in unemployed (and therefore less to spend) could help in some way to hold inflation down and therefore postpone having to raise interest rates?

[Caulkhead]

Within two quarters apparently:

"When gross domestic product (GDP) growth slides back to negative after a quarter or two of positive growth. A double-dip recession refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession."

[Balmoral Green]

I don't know about 'Double Dip' as that implies a spike of growth in the middle, there may have been a little blip, but hardly enough to make it a spike.

I see it more as falling off a cliff, trawling along a shelf for a bit, and now we're falling off that shelf down another cliff. Who knows how deep the abyss?