So when do China, India etc face their economic crisis?
Discussion
The balance of power seems to be shifting slowly and now Europe is even asking BRIC nations for money. So whilst Western economies are failing, the BRIC nations appear to be going from strength to strength.
So will developing economies benefit from our economic travails or do we drag them down with us?
So will developing economies benefit from our economic travails or do we drag them down with us?
No one will put a date on it but there are plenty of books on the subject, for example:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Uprising-Emerging-Markets-...
"He presents a welcome reality check on the view that the “long-awaited decline of the west” is in full swing.
This is not to deny the economic “uprising” of emerging markets, in particular China. He is far too subtle for that and too good an economist, with decades of country-watching under his belt at UBS and its forerunners. He simply points out that making and exporting lots of stuff is not enough. The quality of institutions – notably the legal system and the related enforcement of property and contractual rights – matter.
Cue a refreshingly sceptical view of China. Many pages are devoted to the challenges it faces, including export dependence (feeding the continued imbalance in global trade), the town-country divide, environmental degradation, the ageing of its population and a potential banking crisis when politically directed loans turn sour. Magnus does not say that democracy is the answer, but he does reckon that the legitimacy of the Communist Party is likely to be threatened.
India gets off more lightly. It resembles an “Asian America”, with more favourable demographics and a penchant for services and advanced technology. This – rather exaggerated – view of a development trajectory that skips the heavy manufacturing/export-driven phase may not, however, create enough employment.
Sounds like the US, indeed.
Another important point is that the emerging world is far from homogenous. Hong Kong and Singapore are very much developed. China and India remain very poor in per capita terms. And the idea that regions as diverse as sub-Saharan Africa and South Korea/Japan might naturally fall in behind China as a global leader is demonstrated to be as ridiculous as it sounds."
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Uprising-Emerging-Markets-...
"He presents a welcome reality check on the view that the “long-awaited decline of the west” is in full swing.
This is not to deny the economic “uprising” of emerging markets, in particular China. He is far too subtle for that and too good an economist, with decades of country-watching under his belt at UBS and its forerunners. He simply points out that making and exporting lots of stuff is not enough. The quality of institutions – notably the legal system and the related enforcement of property and contractual rights – matter.
Cue a refreshingly sceptical view of China. Many pages are devoted to the challenges it faces, including export dependence (feeding the continued imbalance in global trade), the town-country divide, environmental degradation, the ageing of its population and a potential banking crisis when politically directed loans turn sour. Magnus does not say that democracy is the answer, but he does reckon that the legitimacy of the Communist Party is likely to be threatened.
India gets off more lightly. It resembles an “Asian America”, with more favourable demographics and a penchant for services and advanced technology. This – rather exaggerated – view of a development trajectory that skips the heavy manufacturing/export-driven phase may not, however, create enough employment.
Sounds like the US, indeed.
Another important point is that the emerging world is far from homogenous. Hong Kong and Singapore are very much developed. China and India remain very poor in per capita terms. And the idea that regions as diverse as sub-Saharan Africa and South Korea/Japan might naturally fall in behind China as a global leader is demonstrated to be as ridiculous as it sounds."
Esseesse said:
Don't know about economic crisis, but IMO we really need China to stop fixing their currency value. The world shouldn't trade with countries doing this.
So China is manipulating their currency but so is everyone else via QE or more directly:"Japan intervenes to weaken yen ahead of G20
The Bank of Japan sold up to 5.9 trillion yen (£47bn) in exchange for US dollars in an attempt to devalue its own currency and boost its exports market."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...
t-hole and completely different to China. I have no idea when but India will certainly fail before China. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff