Why is it that when the media tell us we have a drought.....
Discussion
it starts raining non-stop? Since the hosepipe ban came in (still not received any info from the water company btw) it has rained every day, and today it has rained non-stop causing minor flooding on the roads 
Likewise, when we're informed that it'll be a mild winter it ends up bloody freezing, and when someone suggests we'll have a BBQ summer (as they do each year) it ends up a typical cold, wet and dull British summmer.
Are our forecasters particularly unlucky in their predictions, or are they doing something wrong ?
Likewise, when we're informed that it'll be a mild winter it ends up bloody freezing, and when someone suggests we'll have a BBQ summer (as they do each year) it ends up a typical cold, wet and dull British summmer.
Are our forecasters particularly unlucky in their predictions, or are they doing something wrong ?
Happy82 said:
it starts raining non-stop? Since the hosepipe ban came in (still not received any info from the water company btw) it has rained every day, and today it has rained non-stop causing minor flooding on the roads
Likewise, when we're informed that it'll be a mild winter it ends up bloody freezing, and when someone suggests we'll have a BBQ summer (as they do each year) it ends up a typical cold, wet and dull British summmer.
Are our forecasters particularly unlucky in their predictions, or are they doing something wrong ?
Sod's Law...Likewise, when we're informed that it'll be a mild winter it ends up bloody freezing, and when someone suggests we'll have a BBQ summer (as they do each year) it ends up a typical cold, wet and dull British summmer.
Are our forecasters particularly unlucky in their predictions, or are they doing something wrong ?
or Murphy's Law...
Edited by Fatboy on Monday 9th April 21:35
Happy82 said:
it starts raining non-stop? Since the hosepipe ban came in (still not received any info from the water company btw) it has rained every day, and today it has rained non-stop causing minor flooding on the roads
Likewise, when we're informed that it'll be a mild winter it ends up bloody freezing, and when someone suggests we'll have a BBQ summer (as they do each year) it ends up a typical cold, wet and dull British summmer.
Are our forecasters particularly unlucky in their predictions, or are they doing something wrong ?
Assuming you are supplied by Southern water (or Portsmouth water) you are exempt from the ban because you live in Hampshire. Likewise, when we're informed that it'll be a mild winter it ends up bloody freezing, and when someone suggests we'll have a BBQ summer (as they do each year) it ends up a typical cold, wet and dull British summmer.
Are our forecasters particularly unlucky in their predictions, or are they doing something wrong ?
Which might explain why you haven't heard from them
Happy82 said:
it starts raining non-stop? Since the hosepipe ban came in (still not received any info from the water company btw) it has rained every day, and today it has rained non-stop causing minor flooding on the roads
It needs to rain like this for the rest of the year to get the reservoirs back to where they would normally be. One or two days isn't going to make the slightest bit of difference.Happy82 said:
Ah, that's interesting! People around here are wittering on about the hosepipe ban so I'll have to let them know 
Cheers!
You can put your postcode in at : http://www.southernwater.co.uk/ and it will tell you what restrictions (if any) are in place. Cheers!One matter is certain.
The weather forecasters CANNOT forecast longer than two to three days in front.
With any realistic accuracy.
We had the warmest March in history last month.
Was it predicted? No.
We had the coldest winter since 1963 last year.
Was it predicted? No.
We have had the least rainfall over the last 12 months since 1976.
Was it predicted? No.
The weather forecasters simply cannot predict the weather accurately except by anticipating approaching weather systems and wind trends etc on a very short term basis. From the data available from weather research stations and satellites. Short term ONLY!
The forecasters can predict that the temperature will be average, the sunshine average, the rainfall average and generally they will be right. The forecasters can adjust the probable results for approaching weather systems charted across the oceans and seas that surround us. They can adjust the results for the probable reduction or increase of those systems as they approach. SHORT TERM.
But they cannot truly forecast the weather in say three months or six months at all.
Which is why an impending drought is deadly serious. No one knows whether this will continue or stop. Or get worse or disappear in a huge deluge.
Weather systems are not capable of forecast in the medium or long term.
The remarkable thing is that the weather forecasters are able to pretend they can forecast longer term trends and systems. They cannot.
This may be because their livlelyhood depends on the public paying for these services.
There is no value in the forecast now for say July.
Yes you can predict monthly averages and exclude extreme results.
This is NOT a forecast it is simply a statistical assessment of the probability of the weather we will experience based on previous results.
That is a postcaste interpretation not a forecast.
The forecasters have not really got any method of predicting the medium and long term weather,
The weather forecasters CANNOT forecast longer than two to three days in front.
With any realistic accuracy.
We had the warmest March in history last month.
Was it predicted? No.
We had the coldest winter since 1963 last year.
Was it predicted? No.
We have had the least rainfall over the last 12 months since 1976.
Was it predicted? No.
The weather forecasters simply cannot predict the weather accurately except by anticipating approaching weather systems and wind trends etc on a very short term basis. From the data available from weather research stations and satellites. Short term ONLY!
The forecasters can predict that the temperature will be average, the sunshine average, the rainfall average and generally they will be right. The forecasters can adjust the probable results for approaching weather systems charted across the oceans and seas that surround us. They can adjust the results for the probable reduction or increase of those systems as they approach. SHORT TERM.
But they cannot truly forecast the weather in say three months or six months at all.
Which is why an impending drought is deadly serious. No one knows whether this will continue or stop. Or get worse or disappear in a huge deluge.
Weather systems are not capable of forecast in the medium or long term.
The remarkable thing is that the weather forecasters are able to pretend they can forecast longer term trends and systems. They cannot.
This may be because their livlelyhood depends on the public paying for these services.
There is no value in the forecast now for say July.
Yes you can predict monthly averages and exclude extreme results.
This is NOT a forecast it is simply a statistical assessment of the probability of the weather we will experience based on previous results.
That is a postcaste interpretation not a forecast.
The forecasters have not really got any method of predicting the medium and long term weather,
Steffan said:
One matter is certain.
The weather forecasters CANNOT forecast longer than two to three days in front.
With any realistic accuracy.
We had the warmest March in history last month.
Was it predicted? No.
We had the coldest winter since 1963 last year.
Was it predicted? No.
We have had the least rainfall over the last 12 months since 1976.
Was it predicted? No.
The weather forecasters simply cannot predict the weather accurately except by anticipating approaching weather systems and wind trends etc on a very short term basis. From the data available from weather research stations and satellites. Short term ONLY!
The forecasters can predict that the temperature will be average, the sunshine average, the rainfall average and generally they will be right. The forecasters can adjust the probable results for approaching weather systems charted across the oceans and seas that surround us. They can adjust the results for the probable reduction or increase of those systems as they approach. SHORT TERM.
But they cannot truly forecast the weather in say three months or six months at all.
Which is why an impending drought is deadly serious. No one knows whether this will continue or stop. Or get worse or disappear in a huge deluge.
Weather systems are not capable of forecast in the medium or long term.
The remarkable thing is that the weather forecasters are able to pretend they can forecast longer term trends and systems. They cannot.
This may be because their livlelyhood depends on the public paying for these services.
There is no value in the forecast now for say July.
Yes you can predict monthly averages and exclude extreme results.
This is NOT a forecast it is simply a statistical assessment of the probability of the weather we will experience based on previous results.
That is a postcaste interpretation not a forecast.
The forecasters have not really got any method of predicting the medium and long term weather,
Unlike your Nostradamus like prophecies about the Euro (last autumn) and Fabrice Muamba (brain dead)?The weather forecasters CANNOT forecast longer than two to three days in front.
With any realistic accuracy.
We had the warmest March in history last month.
Was it predicted? No.
We had the coldest winter since 1963 last year.
Was it predicted? No.
We have had the least rainfall over the last 12 months since 1976.
Was it predicted? No.
The weather forecasters simply cannot predict the weather accurately except by anticipating approaching weather systems and wind trends etc on a very short term basis. From the data available from weather research stations and satellites. Short term ONLY!
The forecasters can predict that the temperature will be average, the sunshine average, the rainfall average and generally they will be right. The forecasters can adjust the probable results for approaching weather systems charted across the oceans and seas that surround us. They can adjust the results for the probable reduction or increase of those systems as they approach. SHORT TERM.
But they cannot truly forecast the weather in say three months or six months at all.
Which is why an impending drought is deadly serious. No one knows whether this will continue or stop. Or get worse or disappear in a huge deluge.
Weather systems are not capable of forecast in the medium or long term.
The remarkable thing is that the weather forecasters are able to pretend they can forecast longer term trends and systems. They cannot.
This may be because their livlelyhood depends on the public paying for these services.
There is no value in the forecast now for say July.
Yes you can predict monthly averages and exclude extreme results.
This is NOT a forecast it is simply a statistical assessment of the probability of the weather we will experience based on previous results.
That is a postcaste interpretation not a forecast.
The forecasters have not really got any method of predicting the medium and long term weather,
What next, child care tips from Myra Hindley?
once said:
Happy82 said:
it starts raining non-stop? Since the hosepipe ban came in (still not received any info from the water company btw) it has rained every day, and today it has rained non-stop causing minor flooding on the roads
It needs to rain like this for the rest of the year to get the reservoirs back to where they would normally be. One or two days isn't going to make the slightest bit of difference.Tonight I came home through a torrent and the countryside lanes were so bad I was thankful I had recently fitted new tyres, it must have been 2+ inches deep in places.
This country has never ever had a water 'shortage', just a water 'problem' that is firmly down to those
at its 'helm'.LordFlathead said:
Bing o said:
Unlike your Nostradamus like prophecies about the Euro (last autumn) and Fabrice Muamba (brain dead)?
What next, child care tips from Myra Hindley?
Exactly.. and oh how I hate reading shopping lists What next, child care tips from Myra Hindley?
The hyperbole.
The DRAMA.
The WORLD is ending.
The WEATHER forecast cannot go on.
It WILL not go on.
I can see no GOOD coming out of this weather forecast (apart from next Thursday, but only across the Home Counties)
Ian McCaskill KNOWS it is over. Michael Fish as well.
It will be FINISHED by this AUTUMN.
dandarez said:
This country has never ever had a water 'shortage', just a water 'problem' that is firmly down to those at its 'helm'.
You don't really believe that, do you?The past 2-3 years have been amongst the driest on record. Or are you going to blame the politicians and water companies for the weather too?
I know it's tempting to blame the Government or the big companies for everything. It means that none of us have to take personal responsibility for anything. It's always someone else's fault. It's the British way - to whinge and complain about anything we don't understand or don't like.
But if it doesn't rain, the reservoirs run low. And one or two days is not going to make the slightest bit of difference. No matter who is in charge.
Bing o said:
Unlike your Nostradamus like prophecies about the Euro (last autumn) and Fabrice Muamba (brain dead)?
What next, child care tips from Myra Hindley?
Ignoring the drama he does have a point.What next, child care tips from Myra Hindley?
The Swedish version of the Met office performs much better in my experience than the UK version in terms of the short term forecast, much much better.
Yet even there statistics show that if every day their forecast simply said, 'tomorrow will be the same as today,' then their forecasting accuracy would significantly improve.
What I cannot understand is why they bother with long range forecasts, especially predicting some significantly unusual pattern, setting themselves up for a fall in my opinion.
Nigel Worc's said:
There was lots and lots and lots of water at Elan valley yesterday.
Just thought I'd pass that on, as big al shut my topic and pointed me here lol
There's no hosepipe ban for Severn Trent either. Very far-sighted, those Victorians. At least the ones from the Midlands. Just thought I'd pass that on, as big al shut my topic and pointed me here lol
F i F said:
What I cannot understand is why they bother with long range forecasts, especially predicting some significantly unusual pattern, setting themselves up for a fall in my opinion.
They bother because the public want long range forecasts (will it be sunny for my holiday?) and some organisations positively need them. The water companies need to know if we will have enough rainfall to keep the reservoirs full. The Highways Agency and local highway authorities need to know if it's going to snow each winter so they know how much salt and grit to order.The problem is that weather is a chaotic system. At the current state of technology nobody can predict the weather more than about five days into the future.
A few years ago, the theory was that all you needed to do for a long range forecast was to take lots of observational data and then apply a big enough computer. But what we got those powerful computers, we found that it didn't quite work like that. The weather is affected by a host of different factors, both natural and man-made. A small change in wind speed could mean that a cold front hits us, or veers off into the Atlantic.
The more we understand about the chaos theory, the more we realise that we simply can't anticipate weather more than a few days ahead. It's just much too complicated.
The Met Office tries because we want it, but they are always quick to tell you not to trust long range weather forecasts. There are some crackpots out there who claim to be able to predict the weather using sunspots or by looking at whether berries are growing or not. But despite some of their grand claims they haven't yet found a foolproof way of predicting weather accurately.
That's just the way it is. It's not anyone's fault. It's not an example of the Government failing or anyone not doing their job properly.
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