What the hell is Putin playing at?
Discussion
Russian military aircraft activity has really picked up of late, with various aircraft being intercepted at various locations.
4 Russian navy ships are heading towards Oz, and now Russian tanks, troops and air defences are in Ukraine.
Seriously, wtf is he playing at?
Strikes me as a desperate man trying to hold onto domestic popularity...
4 Russian navy ships are heading towards Oz, and now Russian tanks, troops and air defences are in Ukraine.
Seriously, wtf is he playing at?
Strikes me as a desperate man trying to hold onto domestic popularity...
Recently read a very interesting answer on Quora to the question "Who would win in a war between Russia and the US?"
http://qr.ae/mKA4D
The more interesting parts are near the end where the respondent talks about Russia having transformed itself into an energy powerhouse.
http://qr.ae/mKA4D
The more interesting parts are near the end where the respondent talks about Russia having transformed itself into an energy powerhouse.
Isn't he just reminding NATO that Russia still has a force to be reckoned with?
It would be silly IMO for NATO to continue to pressure Russia by ideas of further expansion.
The old adage that if you back an animal in to a corner it will come out fighting with claws ready to scratch.
(I wouldn't like that to play out when the claws are various nukes landing on strategic targets around the globe).
It would be silly IMO for NATO to continue to pressure Russia by ideas of further expansion.
The old adage that if you back an animal in to a corner it will come out fighting with claws ready to scratch.
(I wouldn't like that to play out when the claws are various nukes landing on strategic targets around the globe).
AA999 said:
Isn't he just reminding NATO that Russia still has a force to be reckoned with?
It would be silly IMO for NATO to continue to pressure Russia by ideas of further expansion.
The old adage that if you back an animal in to a corner it will come out fighting with claws ready to scratch.
(I wouldn't like that to play out when the claws are various nukes landing on strategic targets around the globe).
Especially with our main military and nuclear assets in Dudley, Bradford, Liverpool and SloughIt would be silly IMO for NATO to continue to pressure Russia by ideas of further expansion.
The old adage that if you back an animal in to a corner it will come out fighting with claws ready to scratch.
(I wouldn't like that to play out when the claws are various nukes landing on strategic targets around the globe).
(Hope Putin is reading this
)AA999 said:
Isn't he just reminding NATO that Russia still has a force to be reckoned with?
It would be silly IMO for NATO to continue to pressure Russia by ideas of further expansion.
The old adage that if you back an animal in to a corner it will come out fighting with claws ready to scratch.
(I wouldn't like that to play out when the claws are various nukes landing on strategic targets around the globe).
Crikey, we are a very long way from Putin firing nuclear weapons around the globe, so very, very far away....It would be silly IMO for NATO to continue to pressure Russia by ideas of further expansion.
The old adage that if you back an animal in to a corner it will come out fighting with claws ready to scratch.
(I wouldn't like that to play out when the claws are various nukes landing on strategic targets around the globe).
Putin wants a war without actually having a war, the claws arent that sharp though. IMHO Europe needs to apply greater pressure, more trade restrictions and expose Putin and Russua for what they are. Russians wake up to the fact that he has no solution to their economic mire and that no one is really scared of their threats and he doesnt get relected. Call their bluff, they wont launch any nuclear weapons. Anything they do will be moving ground armies into post Soviet states like Georia and Kazakhstan cause a fuss and then retreat.
Putin will rattle all the cages and send his boats, tanks and places all around the world to provoke a reaction but he wont get one. The fact is Europe is learning to survive without depending upon Russia (primarily for energy) and they have nothing to lean on. So Putin attempts to demonstrate his apparent military might and hopes it will encourage the rest of the world to listen to his demands and remove the trade embargos. If Europe truly can attain the energey requiremetns without Russia, their economy goes balls up very quickly. Putin knows this and knows he is out of power if it happens.
Oz must be laughing, they have very few if any dependencies on Russia, so why take any threats seriously? Russian Navies must be laughing too if they get to float around in the Southern Hemisphere for a change rather than mince around the North Atlantic and the Baltics...
jammy_basturd said:
The more interesting parts are near the end where the respondent talks about Russia having transformed itself into an energy powerhouse.
Erm, no it isn't.It relies heavily on Western technology to extract its reserves which is now being witheld due to sanctions.
It requires an oil price above $100pb to survive, the Gulf states can live with a much lower price.
Saudi's production is only limited by how far they open the taps - their oil is cheaper and easier to produce than Russia's and if they carry on at current production levels they can keep the oil price around £85pb thereby bankrupting the Russians.
Russia can only export its oil via pipelines crossing NATO territory, or ships passing trough the Bosphorus, or to China (wrong side of the world for most customers).
So, hardly invulnerable.
raftom said:
He is playing at the "let me avoid Ceausescu/Ghadaffi destiny for as long as I can" by keeping the plebs at home entertained.
Let the oil barrel drop further and the pension payments start getting delayed and the pitchforks will come out.
^This, pretty much.Let the oil barrel drop further and the pension payments start getting delayed and the pitchforks will come out.
Putin is there because of the wealthy oligarch elite. With their assets being frozen, they will be feeling immense pain and the pressure to oust Putin for a more globally benign figurehead will grow by the day. factor in any dissatisfaction from the proletariat - body bags coming home from a war Russia aren't even officially waging, for example - and he is on thin ice.
As Pablo says, patience or even escalation with the sanctions will be rewarded.
Bluebarge said:
jammy_basturd said:
The more interesting parts are near the end where the respondent talks about Russia having transformed itself into an energy powerhouse.
Erm, no it isn't.It relies heavily on Western technology to extract its reserves which is now being witheld due to sanctions.
It requires an oil price above $100pb to survive, the Gulf states can live with a much lower price.
Saudi's production is only limited by how far they open the taps - their oil is cheaper and easier to produce than Russia's and if they carry on at current production levels they can keep the oil price around £85pb thereby bankrupting the Russians.
Russia can only export its oil via pipelines crossing NATO territory, or ships passing trough the Bosphorus, or to China (wrong side of the world for most customers).
So, hardly invulnerable.
What about gas?
Article on Bloomberg suggests a lot of investment bankers are quitting Moscow for London as their business in Moscow has ground to a halt. Abandoning what was until recently seen as a strategically important developing market is pretty serious. It means those institutions don't see business opportunities for themselves developing in Russia for the foreseeable future. Lends more weight to reports that Russian businesses are being frozen out of international capital markets.
jammy_basturd said:
Even more interesting.
What about gas?
The baltics and the like are already switching their suppliers http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/business/energy-...What about gas?
We are now an energy-secure state,” Dalia Grybauskaite, the Lithuanian president, said at a ceremony that featured martial touches like a naval brass band, red flares and a cannon salute. “Nobody else from now on will be able to dictate to us the price of gas, or to buy our political will, or to bribe our politicians.”
“If we don’t like it, we can drop it fully and totally,” Ms. Grybauskaite said, referring to a possible severing of relations with Gazprom, the government-controlled Russian gas exporter, which supplies all of Lithuania’s gas.
jammy_basturd said:
Bluebarge said:
jammy_basturd said:
The more interesting parts are near the end where the respondent talks about Russia having transformed itself into an energy powerhouse.
Erm, no it isn't.It relies heavily on Western technology to extract its reserves which is now being witheld due to sanctions.
It requires an oil price above $100pb to survive, the Gulf states can live with a much lower price.
Saudi's production is only limited by how far they open the taps - their oil is cheaper and easier to produce than Russia's and if they carry on at current production levels they can keep the oil price around £85pb thereby bankrupting the Russians.
Russia can only export its oil via pipelines crossing NATO territory, or ships passing trough the Bosphorus, or to China (wrong side of the world for most customers).
So, hardly invulnerable.
What about gas?
pablo said:
Crikey, we are a very long way from Putin firing nuclear weapons around the globe, so very, very far away....
Putin wants a war without actually having a war, the claws arent that sharp though. IMHO Europe needs to apply greater pressure, more trade restrictions and expose Putin and Russua for what they are. Russians wake up to the fact that he has no solution to their economic mire and that no one is really scared of their threats and he doesnt get relected. Call their bluff, they wont launch any nuclear weapons. Anything they do will be moving ground armies into post Soviet states like Georia and Kazakhstan cause a fuss and then retreat.
Putin will rattle all the cages and send his boats, tanks and places all around the world to provoke a reaction but he wont get one. The fact is Europe is learning to survive without depending upon Russia (primarily for energy) and they have nothing to lean on. So Putin attempts to demonstrate his apparent military might and hopes it will encourage the rest of the world to listen to his demands and remove the trade embargos. If Europe truly can attain the energey requiremetns without Russia, their economy goes balls up very quickly. Putin knows this and knows he is out of power if it happens.
Oz must be laughing, they have very few if any dependencies on Russia, so why take any threats seriously? Russian Navies must be laughing too if they get to float around in the Southern Hemisphere for a change rather than mince around the North Atlantic and the Baltics...
Russia and China both need liberating from dictators, the only people to do it sadly are their own!Putin wants a war without actually having a war, the claws arent that sharp though. IMHO Europe needs to apply greater pressure, more trade restrictions and expose Putin and Russua for what they are. Russians wake up to the fact that he has no solution to their economic mire and that no one is really scared of their threats and he doesnt get relected. Call their bluff, they wont launch any nuclear weapons. Anything they do will be moving ground armies into post Soviet states like Georia and Kazakhstan cause a fuss and then retreat.
Putin will rattle all the cages and send his boats, tanks and places all around the world to provoke a reaction but he wont get one. The fact is Europe is learning to survive without depending upon Russia (primarily for energy) and they have nothing to lean on. So Putin attempts to demonstrate his apparent military might and hopes it will encourage the rest of the world to listen to his demands and remove the trade embargos. If Europe truly can attain the energey requiremetns without Russia, their economy goes balls up very quickly. Putin knows this and knows he is out of power if it happens.
Oz must be laughing, they have very few if any dependencies on Russia, so why take any threats seriously? Russian Navies must be laughing too if they get to float around in the Southern Hemisphere for a change rather than mince around the North Atlantic and the Baltics...
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