Global Slowdown / Brexit - Thoughts for 2019
Discussion
So, I've a few friends who own estate agents and car dealerships and although they aren't entirely full of doom & gloom, their sentiment is very much one of the UK economy is flatlining in the wake of global economics
Housing market - very little selling, prices coming down - London / South East
Car market - again, new car sales extremely poor. Classic market (except blue chip) flat lining. Very little selling although asking prices remain / expectations still high.
Business confidence is low? My personal outlook is "caution". Spend a little, save a lot.
What's the considered opinion from those "in the know" for this year?
Housing market - very little selling, prices coming down - London / South East
Car market - again, new car sales extremely poor. Classic market (except blue chip) flat lining. Very little selling although asking prices remain / expectations still high.
Business confidence is low? My personal outlook is "caution". Spend a little, save a lot.
What's the considered opinion from those "in the know" for this year?
Edited by Candellara on Friday 1st March 20:19
Edited by Candellara on Friday 1st March 20:20
A lot of people in my industry are very busy but making very little profit. I think a lot of businesses are the same at the moment, pumping out volume at tiny profit margins.
Last year was bad for us. Profits down 25% on our core business. Some months despite doing reasonable volume we were making a loss. Transport costs, insurance costs and employee costs probably the main drivers.
This year we have taken the decision to increase prices 20%. Our competitors will either do the same, or they will continue trading at a loss. We have been trading at the new price for 2 months and most customers have not even mentioned the price increase.
Last year was bad for us. Profits down 25% on our core business. Some months despite doing reasonable volume we were making a loss. Transport costs, insurance costs and employee costs probably the main drivers.
This year we have taken the decision to increase prices 20%. Our competitors will either do the same, or they will continue trading at a loss. We have been trading at the new price for 2 months and most customers have not even mentioned the price increase.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Mentioned this on the house prices thread, no sign of a housing slowdown in our part of Dorset. We accepted an offer on our place thinking buying would be easy as we had no chain bar our buyer who is in rented. We were very unfussy about what we bought as long as it was with in walking distance of the harbour and were looking in the £250k to £350k. price band The first 3 houses were all sold before we got a chance to view. We offered on the next two but both sold for over their asking prices all within a two week period. Now had an offer accepted on a place which came on the Market on Friday and we had the offer agreed on Monday morning. There are more sold than for sale properties on right move here.As for work, I am in the building trade and it has never been so busy. I have put my prices up twice in the last couple of years and have more work offers than I can do despite doing no advertising. Almost every decent tradesman here has at least 6 months work on their books. I have been in the trade for over 20 years and have never know it to be this good. Looking at the doom and gloom generally posted on here I am starting to think I am living in some sort of alternative parallel world.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
What sector do you work? I work in construction. Contractor for facilities management companies working for big social housing providers. Busy enough but squeezed very hard by long term contracts where we can't get our prices up to cover the increases in material costs since the value of the pound tanked.Don't mind Bexit but it can't be a Brexit where there is tarrifs or all the big boys in our sector will go the way of Carrillion.
Midlands here (Nottingham)
I work for a builders merchant and we’re flat out. Was in a place that makes concrete beams last week and they can’t make them fast enough. Same with our slab supplier.
Was in Scania trucks in Monday, hardly anywhere to park there were that many new trucks awaiting their new owners!
I’m certainly not seeing any of this doom and gloom.
I work for a builders merchant and we’re flat out. Was in a place that makes concrete beams last week and they can’t make them fast enough. Same with our slab supplier.
Was in Scania trucks in Monday, hardly anywhere to park there were that many new trucks awaiting their new owners!
I’m certainly not seeing any of this doom and gloom.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
About 50% private customers 25% site work for small builders and 25% display work for a large local retailer. I am a floor and wall tiler. When I told one of the builders I was putting up my prices by 10% earlier in the year he did not bat an eyelid. He knows that he is lucky to have me. All my customers pay with in 7 days too even the builders.Although I do all types of tiling this is my favorite...
Nothing much to add to the substance of the thread except to say that tiling looks nice.
Oh perhaps decorators. Looking to find someone to do an outside job, not big, I used to do it myself in one or two days, until broke my knee, and a day up the ladders now gives so much pain don't sleep for the next two nights.
Trying to give lots of options on timing and give plenty of notice. Neighbour had same job to be done, ended up relying on the bloke who rolls up with a pack of Old Holborn and a can of lager when he can borrow his mate's ladders. His job was done on a freezing cold day when it was due to rain. No thanks.
Almost started investigating how much a cherry picker costs to hire for a couple of days.
Oh perhaps decorators. Looking to find someone to do an outside job, not big, I used to do it myself in one or two days, until broke my knee, and a day up the ladders now gives so much pain don't sleep for the next two nights.
Trying to give lots of options on timing and give plenty of notice. Neighbour had same job to be done, ended up relying on the bloke who rolls up with a pack of Old Holborn and a can of lager when he can borrow his mate's ladders. His job was done on a freezing cold day when it was due to rain. No thanks.
Almost started investigating how much a cherry picker costs to hire for a couple of days.
FiF said:
Nothing much to add to the substance of the thread except to say that tiling looks nice.
Oh perhaps decorators. Looking to find someone to do an outside job, not big, I used to do it myself in one or two days, until broke my knee, and a day up the ladders now gives so much pain don't sleep for the next two nights.
Trying to give lots of options on timing and give plenty of notice. Neighbour had same job to be done, ended up relying on the bloke who rolls up with a pack of Old Holborn and a can of lager when he can borrow his mate's ladders. His job was done on a freezing cold day when it was due to rain. No thanks.
Almost started investigating how much a cherry picker costs to hire for a couple of days.
You will be lucky to find a decent painter who will work off a ladder these days so the cherry picker and do it yourself would probably be the best option as you will be paying for a picker or scaffolding anyway... Oh perhaps decorators. Looking to find someone to do an outside job, not big, I used to do it myself in one or two days, until broke my knee, and a day up the ladders now gives so much pain don't sleep for the next two nights.
Trying to give lots of options on timing and give plenty of notice. Neighbour had same job to be done, ended up relying on the bloke who rolls up with a pack of Old Holborn and a can of lager when he can borrow his mate's ladders. His job was done on a freezing cold day when it was due to rain. No thanks.
Almost started investigating how much a cherry picker costs to hire for a couple of days.
Nice to see the sentiment is largely positive. House prices definitely stagnating in some area's. We've just bought a house (as a rental) sold for £285,000 in 2013 for £285k - offer accepted at £260k. Maybe slightly distressed sale though.
There's many more problems for car manufacturers though and I think this is both the Chinese market, Brexit uncertainty and diesel sales.
There's many more problems for car manufacturers though and I think this is both the Chinese market, Brexit uncertainty and diesel sales.
Seems busy with us had a massive supply of pdi just before the new reg came in has dropped since. Chatting to the sales guys and seem to be hitting target and with a new range of cars and a electric car in each one by next year they seem to be hitting the spot for the public (Peugeot) and the other brand (Kia) doing well too.
On the mechanics side we have been flat out since beginning of the year and have a month/two months backed up with work already the main problem we have is lack of techs which seems to be a big problem with a lot of dealers as most have adverts out. We are currently 5 down on where we should be atm.
I don't see the mass panic also don't hear anyone talking about Brexitin general since the vote for most people everyone just got on with it and are carrying on as per usual.
On the mechanics side we have been flat out since beginning of the year and have a month/two months backed up with work already the main problem we have is lack of techs which seems to be a big problem with a lot of dealers as most have adverts out. We are currently 5 down on where we should be atm.
I don't see the mass panic also don't hear anyone talking about Brexitin general since the vote for most people everyone just got on with it and are carrying on as per usual.
On balance, the U.K. is looking better than the rest of Europe despite the uncertainty of Brexit. Plenty of money looking to invest from global investors, with prices attractive compared to many global markets.
The big influences will be a US China trade deal, which I think is likely, with a drag from unrealised losses in the Euro zone banks, in turn offset by further EU QE as they try and keep the boat afloat.
Domestically, London and SE residential property has some way to fall - probably another 18-24 months and a very substantial total fall.
UK growth has never recovered for 2008. There's little investment and productivity growth is tiny.
If only economists new a fix, maybe that bloke Keynes.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281734/gdp-gro...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproduc...
If only economists new a fix, maybe that bloke Keynes.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281734/gdp-gro...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproduc...
Edited by Fittster on Saturday 2nd March 22:30
Fittster said:
UK growth has never recovered for 2008. There's little investment and productivity growth is tiny.
If only economists new a fix, maybe that bloke Keynes.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281734/gdp-gro...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproduc...
Productivity doesn’t work for service economies and is overrated when balancing welfare and income anyway.If only economists new a fix, maybe that bloke Keynes.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281734/gdp-gro...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproduc...
Edited by Fittster on Saturday 2nd March 22:30
As for 2008 growth, it wasn’t sustainable in the first place.
We are turning Japanese, but with a more immigration based profile, and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
SpeedMattersNot said:
We're down on student numbers next year so looking at redundancies,
Student numbers were always going to be down for the next two cohorts. Simple demographics, fewer 18 year olds coming through, plus an increase in normal apprenticeships and introduction of apprentice degrees always meant fewer bums on seats. That's before you add in the number of kids who are looking at student loans and thinking stuff that.Then you have the 'better' unis hoovering up student numbers by simply offering changes to offered grades. Why wouldn't you choose to go to a Russell group instead of Fred Bloggs former technical college is what many students will think when the chaos of horse trading during clearing kicks off, they won't care that the contact hours at the place with the better name might be no comparison to what they'll experience at Bloggs. Nor that the proper uni will expect them to study properly and generate the ability to research as opposed to sitting in a classroom and be taught to pass exams.
Sensible unis will have been generating "war funds" to try and get over the drop in numbers. Will it be enough, not sure, time will tell.
There will be redundancies, some establishments will go bust, that's clear. What will the government do, who knows.
Is this off topic, possibly, but it's not a good picture. Not necessarily anything to do with Brexit or Global slow down though.
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