Apres la Guerre
Discussion
Well, guys, one day this pandemic will come to an end, but things will not be as they were.
We need to start thinking now how things have to change to prevent this happening again, and how they are going to change whether we want them to or not. Politicians will have to act, and we as a nation need to be thinking now about what it is we should be asking them to do.
Otherwise we will be back to the same old routine, or living in some 100% control, Orwellian society, or some other unwanted future that no-one expected.
What do you think will happen, and what ought to happen?
We need to start thinking now how things have to change to prevent this happening again, and how they are going to change whether we want them to or not. Politicians will have to act, and we as a nation need to be thinking now about what it is we should be asking them to do.
Otherwise we will be back to the same old routine, or living in some 100% control, Orwellian society, or some other unwanted future that no-one expected.
What do you think will happen, and what ought to happen?
"Brave New World? A few thoughts on the future... I think the, later to be, long running crisis will impact a few things, perhaps even ushering in the 21st Century and creating the Great Disentanglement.
First of all Autarky, or the state of self-sufficiency, may be a buzzword for the next decade, de-coupling from globalisation and being more localised even to the small community level – local production and consumption through all the levels.
I also see the ascendance of tech/science being given reason by virtue of this self-sufficiency, allied to a raised concern over environmental issues driven by the collective-unconscious shock of general global threat. Advanced manufacturing and engineering to be the area of focus.
Remote working will be a ‘why didn’t we do this before?’ situation, as business’ see the efficiencies and people see the advantages. De-urbanisation and the end of the 9-5 follow swiftly behind. Rural techno-hubs & home offices grow. We’ll perhaps be keener to save our dollars too, interesting against a fiscal background of anticipated inflationary stimulus to draw down the debt incurred.
Education may also reform; now we are teaching our kids at home using remote teaching or delivered content. In particular in a University context the huge costs and massive time inefficiencies are laid bare, [as if multiple disciplines needing the same time to teach didn’t tell us something anyway...]. With this, potentially could see a loss of specific curriculum as people are more able to follow interest rather than being channelled into the categorical. Self-education rather than indoctrination...
Finally our politics may be skewed, for a hundred years we’ve only seen things through a tension of ‘right’ and ‘left’, neither providing complete solutions. I’ve argued before about this duopoly, that it serves only to provide the illusion of choice to perpetuate the incompetent; how will we be guided in our choices when we see candidates through the competency lens of the Crisis Manager rather than the ideological one of the rosette wearing pig?
The fall of the urban socialite and the rise of the techno farmer...?"
First of all Autarky, or the state of self-sufficiency, may be a buzzword for the next decade, de-coupling from globalisation and being more localised even to the small community level – local production and consumption through all the levels.
I also see the ascendance of tech/science being given reason by virtue of this self-sufficiency, allied to a raised concern over environmental issues driven by the collective-unconscious shock of general global threat. Advanced manufacturing and engineering to be the area of focus.
Remote working will be a ‘why didn’t we do this before?’ situation, as business’ see the efficiencies and people see the advantages. De-urbanisation and the end of the 9-5 follow swiftly behind. Rural techno-hubs & home offices grow. We’ll perhaps be keener to save our dollars too, interesting against a fiscal background of anticipated inflationary stimulus to draw down the debt incurred.
Education may also reform; now we are teaching our kids at home using remote teaching or delivered content. In particular in a University context the huge costs and massive time inefficiencies are laid bare, [as if multiple disciplines needing the same time to teach didn’t tell us something anyway...]. With this, potentially could see a loss of specific curriculum as people are more able to follow interest rather than being channelled into the categorical. Self-education rather than indoctrination...
Finally our politics may be skewed, for a hundred years we’ve only seen things through a tension of ‘right’ and ‘left’, neither providing complete solutions. I’ve argued before about this duopoly, that it serves only to provide the illusion of choice to perpetuate the incompetent; how will we be guided in our choices when we see candidates through the competency lens of the Crisis Manager rather than the ideological one of the rosette wearing pig?
The fall of the urban socialite and the rise of the techno farmer...?"
Expect to also see a rise in mental health issues as everyone who works from home misses out on the important socialising in the office. I'm not meaning the aimless gossip sort of thing, but the actual being around other humans.
I admit, some of the sociopaths on PH can't wait for it!
I admit, some of the sociopaths on PH can't wait for it!
andy_s said:
"Brave New World? A few thoughts on the future... I think the, later to be, long running crisis will impact a few things, perhaps even ushering in the 21st Century and creating the Great Disentanglement.
First of all Autarky, or the state of self-sufficiency, may be a buzzword for the next decade, de-coupling from globalisation and being more localised even to the small community level – local production and consumption through all the levels.
I also see the ascendance of tech/science being given reason by virtue of this self-sufficiency, allied to a raised concern over environmental issues driven by the collective-unconscious shock of general global threat. Advanced manufacturing and engineering to be the area of focus.
Remote working will be a ‘why didn’t we do this before?’ situation, as business’ see the efficiencies and people see the advantages. De-urbanisation and the end of the 9-5 follow swiftly behind. Rural techno-hubs & home offices grow. We’ll perhaps be keener to save our dollars too, interesting against a fiscal background of anticipated inflationary stimulus to draw down the debt incurred.
Education may also reform; now we are teaching our kids at home using remote teaching or delivered content. In particular in a University context the huge costs and massive time inefficiencies are laid bare, [as if multiple disciplines needing the same time to teach didn’t tell us something anyway...]. With this, potentially could see a loss of specific curriculum as people are more able to follow interest rather than being channelled into the categorical. Self-education rather than indoctrination...
Finally our politics may be skewed, for a hundred years we’ve only seen things through a tension of ‘right’ and ‘left’, neither providing complete solutions. I’ve argued before about this duopoly, that it serves only to provide the illusion of choice to perpetuate the incompetent; how will we be guided in our choices when we see candidates through the competency lens of the Crisis Manager rather than the ideological one of the rosette wearing pig?
The fall of the urban socialite and the rise of the techno farmer...?"
Great post, especially regarding remote working. We’ve seen the collapse of the High Street, are we now going to witness the collapse of the CBD?First of all Autarky, or the state of self-sufficiency, may be a buzzword for the next decade, de-coupling from globalisation and being more localised even to the small community level – local production and consumption through all the levels.
I also see the ascendance of tech/science being given reason by virtue of this self-sufficiency, allied to a raised concern over environmental issues driven by the collective-unconscious shock of general global threat. Advanced manufacturing and engineering to be the area of focus.
Remote working will be a ‘why didn’t we do this before?’ situation, as business’ see the efficiencies and people see the advantages. De-urbanisation and the end of the 9-5 follow swiftly behind. Rural techno-hubs & home offices grow. We’ll perhaps be keener to save our dollars too, interesting against a fiscal background of anticipated inflationary stimulus to draw down the debt incurred.
Education may also reform; now we are teaching our kids at home using remote teaching or delivered content. In particular in a University context the huge costs and massive time inefficiencies are laid bare, [as if multiple disciplines needing the same time to teach didn’t tell us something anyway...]. With this, potentially could see a loss of specific curriculum as people are more able to follow interest rather than being channelled into the categorical. Self-education rather than indoctrination...
Finally our politics may be skewed, for a hundred years we’ve only seen things through a tension of ‘right’ and ‘left’, neither providing complete solutions. I’ve argued before about this duopoly, that it serves only to provide the illusion of choice to perpetuate the incompetent; how will we be guided in our choices when we see candidates through the competency lens of the Crisis Manager rather than the ideological one of the rosette wearing pig?
The fall of the urban socialite and the rise of the techno farmer...?"
The nationalisation point is key: in years to come we will marvel that we willingly yielded so much control to the State.
Those predicting a permanent switch to home working fail to understand the basic human need for socialisation and interaction. It will be more commonplace but not the norm
De-urbanisation is an interesting one. People may initially want to move to less dense communities and we may move towards a return to more of the affluent moving out of cities but commuting in which, as a trend, has declined in the last 20 years
I suspect that we’ve seen the end of budget air travel. Not only are the airline business models now shown to be unsustainable but this will create a pivot point where Govt can ‘nudge’ consumers towards seeing frequent leisure air travel as morally indefensible
Linked to the above, this will be a pivot to give considerably more focus to climate change and de-carbonisation
Those predicting a permanent switch to home working fail to understand the basic human need for socialisation and interaction. It will be more commonplace but not the norm
De-urbanisation is an interesting one. People may initially want to move to less dense communities and we may move towards a return to more of the affluent moving out of cities but commuting in which, as a trend, has declined in the last 20 years
I suspect that we’ve seen the end of budget air travel. Not only are the airline business models now shown to be unsustainable but this will create a pivot point where Govt can ‘nudge’ consumers towards seeing frequent leisure air travel as morally indefensible
Linked to the above, this will be a pivot to give considerably more focus to climate change and de-carbonisation
andy_s said:
"Brave New World? A few thoughts on the future... I think the, later to be, long running crisis will impact a few things, perhaps even ushering in the 21st Century and creating the Great Disentanglement.
First of all Autarky, or the state of self-sufficiency, may be a buzzword for the next decade, de-coupling from globalisation and being more localised even to the small community level – local production and consumption through all the levels.
I also see the ascendance of tech/science being given reason by virtue of this self-sufficiency, allied to a raised concern over environmental issues driven by the collective-unconscious shock of general global threat. Advanced manufacturing and engineering to be the area of focus.
Remote working will be a ‘why didn’t we do this before?’ situation, as business’ see the efficiencies and people see the advantages. De-urbanisation and the end of the 9-5 follow swiftly behind. Rural techno-hubs & home offices grow. We’ll perhaps be keener to save our dollars too, interesting against a fiscal background of anticipated inflationary stimulus to draw down the debt incurred.
Education may also reform; now we are teaching our kids at home using remote teaching or delivered content. In particular in a University context the huge costs and massive time inefficiencies are laid bare, [as if multiple disciplines needing the same time to teach didn’t tell us something anyway...]. With this, potentially could see a loss of specific curriculum as people are more able to follow interest rather than being channelled into the categorical. Self-education rather than indoctrination...
Finally our politics may be skewed, for a hundred years we’ve only seen things through a tension of ‘right’ and ‘left’, neither providing complete solutions. I’ve argued before about this duopoly, that it serves only to provide the illusion of choice to perpetuate the incompetent; how will we be guided in our choices when we see candidates through the competency lens of the Crisis Manager rather than the ideological one of the rosette wearing pig?
The fall of the urban socialite and the rise of the techno farmer...?"
‘Ushering in the 21st century? We’re already 20 years into it. First of all Autarky, or the state of self-sufficiency, may be a buzzword for the next decade, de-coupling from globalisation and being more localised even to the small community level – local production and consumption through all the levels.
I also see the ascendance of tech/science being given reason by virtue of this self-sufficiency, allied to a raised concern over environmental issues driven by the collective-unconscious shock of general global threat. Advanced manufacturing and engineering to be the area of focus.
Remote working will be a ‘why didn’t we do this before?’ situation, as business’ see the efficiencies and people see the advantages. De-urbanisation and the end of the 9-5 follow swiftly behind. Rural techno-hubs & home offices grow. We’ll perhaps be keener to save our dollars too, interesting against a fiscal background of anticipated inflationary stimulus to draw down the debt incurred.
Education may also reform; now we are teaching our kids at home using remote teaching or delivered content. In particular in a University context the huge costs and massive time inefficiencies are laid bare, [as if multiple disciplines needing the same time to teach didn’t tell us something anyway...]. With this, potentially could see a loss of specific curriculum as people are more able to follow interest rather than being channelled into the categorical. Self-education rather than indoctrination...
Finally our politics may be skewed, for a hundred years we’ve only seen things through a tension of ‘right’ and ‘left’, neither providing complete solutions. I’ve argued before about this duopoly, that it serves only to provide the illusion of choice to perpetuate the incompetent; how will we be guided in our choices when we see candidates through the competency lens of the Crisis Manager rather than the ideological one of the rosette wearing pig?
The fall of the urban socialite and the rise of the techno farmer...?"
breadvan said:
Great post, especially regarding remote working. We’ve seen the collapse of the High Street, are we now going to witness the collapse of the CBD?
I believe that was already happening. I visit(ed) Edinburgh a lot for work. I caught the tram at 8.30am outbound from the city centre to the airport once, expecting a relatively peaceful journey. Tram was rammed for most of the trip, because people live in the centre and commute out to the edge!Care to rethink that?
Apart from the fact that Boris has just forbidden you to go anywhere, if you do (as you may have done last weekend) you are going to find yourself facing a crowd of angry villagers waving pike staffs and pitchforks.
‘Come home to a real fire, buy a holiday cottage in Wales’, they used to say, and I’m guessing that’s now sensible advice again.
The only trouble is this assumption the villagers make that this is an M25 problem and they don’t have to worry about it down in Devon or Ceredigion or wherever. This is wrong - the interconnection of stuff today means this thing will travel faster than the Black Plague - and that didn’t spare many parts in 1348 though it may have gone a little slower. One of the first places in the U.K. to have a significant outbreak was Shetland.
I think we are looking at a much greater emphasis on health controls in travel. Maybe we will need to have an MOT for the human body, which we will need to carry with our passport. I’m guessing that national frontiers will come back into use, which would be quaint.
Apart from the fact that Boris has just forbidden you to go anywhere, if you do (as you may have done last weekend) you are going to find yourself facing a crowd of angry villagers waving pike staffs and pitchforks.
‘Come home to a real fire, buy a holiday cottage in Wales’, they used to say, and I’m guessing that’s now sensible advice again.
The only trouble is this assumption the villagers make that this is an M25 problem and they don’t have to worry about it down in Devon or Ceredigion or wherever. This is wrong - the interconnection of stuff today means this thing will travel faster than the Black Plague - and that didn’t spare many parts in 1348 though it may have gone a little slower. One of the first places in the U.K. to have a significant outbreak was Shetland.
I think we are looking at a much greater emphasis on health controls in travel. Maybe we will need to have an MOT for the human body, which we will need to carry with our passport. I’m guessing that national frontiers will come back into use, which would be quaint.
cardigankid said:
Care to rethink that?
Apart from the fact that Boris has just forbidden you to go anywhere, if you do (as you may have done last weekend) you are going to find yourself facing a crowd of angry villagers waving pike staffs and pitchforks.
I think Blackpuddin is talking more about long term changes in power generation and distribution.Apart from the fact that Boris has just forbidden you to go anywhere, if you do (as you may have done last weekend) you are going to find yourself facing a crowd of angry villagers waving pike staffs and pitchforks.
However, I do think the city vs country relationship is going to change, especially if we see a spike in COVID-19 cases in towns where there are a lot of holiday homes as the people who live there full time already show a lot of resentment towards the "rich city folk" who own second homes before a load of townies turned up spreading the virus!
I don't know about the rest of the country, but coastal towns with 50%+ holiday homes around here (Wells-next-the-Sea, Southwold) were as busy as a bank holiday last weekend instead of being ghost towns this time of year. There aren't any families living there anymore as houses have been too expensive for a long time, means schools are shrinking, etc.
I imagine the first thing to change will be every house starts paying council tax.
cardigankid said:
Care to rethink that?
The only trouble is this assumption the villagers make that this is an M25 problem and they don’t have to worry about it down in Devon or Ceredigion or wherever. This is wrong - the interconnection of stuff today means this thing will travel faster than the Black Plague - and that didn’t spare many parts in 1348 though it may have gone a little slower. One of the first places in the U.K. to have a significant outbreak was Shetland.
.
Shetland wasn't part of the UK in 1348, it wasn't even part of Scotland, it was Norwegian and the Black Death spread to there from Norway. Scotland didn't suffer the 1665 Plague due to protective measures and border controls.The only trouble is this assumption the villagers make that this is an M25 problem and they don’t have to worry about it down in Devon or Ceredigion or wherever. This is wrong - the interconnection of stuff today means this thing will travel faster than the Black Plague - and that didn’t spare many parts in 1348 though it may have gone a little slower. One of the first places in the U.K. to have a significant outbreak was Shetland.
.
Well, I know it's not entirely related, but I can't remember the last time I saw such cloudless skies! Fewer planes is so noticeable overhead...how many of those flights were necessary?
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics
t and pangolins Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff