What will happen to the airlines?

[Julian Thompson]

I’m trying to work out how you can open your borders after the current situation is brought to heel.

I can’t imagine anyone fancying a quarantine period after flying!

What’s going to happen?

[Murph7355]

We'll return to exactly what we were doing before in time.

A few of the shakier airlines will remain closed I suspect, but I don't think it will be long before global travel returns as it was.

[Julian Thompson]

I can’t see it being quite the same. Some form of health checking before you board? 9-11 had an enduring legacy of security - maybe this will be the same?

[Saweep]

Julian Thompson said:

I can’t see it being quite the same. Some form of health checking before you board? 9-11 had an enduring legacy of security - maybe this will be the same?

I always think of the Tsunami alert signs in Thailand when these topics come up.

They're still there, behind the foliage...but nobody cares any more.

[eharding]

Julian Thompson said:

I can’t see it being quite the same. Some form of health checking before you board? 9-11 had an enduring legacy of security - maybe this will be the same?

9-11 was different in that it was the security of the airliners themselves that was the issue. This is about the onward risk of re-infection of a recovering destination from travellers from a still-infected origin.

As such, it's going to be messy as hell. Given that passengers can be asymptomatic simple checks at the departure gate or arrival hall won't work, and if we start holding a certified antibody test as a fundamental requirement - for not just this - we'll likely see a proportion of society deliberately trying to get infected gambling that they won't develop serious symptoms, the odds of which are low but the net effect on the health services would be catastrophic.

The oscillation between those destinations which are infected vs. those which are recovering is likely to last well into next year.

The sad fact is that we're going to see that the world can largely function without the need to ship large quantities of self-loading freight around the planet, and many airlines are experiencing an extinction level event as a result. Cargo of the non self-loading variety will continue, but that's not going to keep the majority of airlines afloat.

[glazbagun]

Rather than bail out, let them fail. Pension pot gets first dibs on assets. State buys some cheap planes from a firesale and a 0.1% loan. Start a new airline. Could call it, oh I dunno...

[FN2TypeR]

glazbagun said:

Rather than bail out, let them fail. Pension pot gets first dibs on assets. State buys some cheap planes from a firesale and a 0.1% loan. Start a new airline. Could call it, oh I dunno...

I flew from Aberdeen to London last October and the BA plane had the old BEA livery on it as part of their 100 year lark, it looked great