Exit strategy

[anonymous-user]

Sambucket said:

Some research from our good friend tony Blair. Might be a starting point for some measured discussion?
https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/downloads.insti...

One thing i haven't see mentioned is the intrinstic non-linearity of virus deaths. The people most likely to die are people with vunerabilty, old age, previous health condition and perhaps even some genetic prohensity to the virus. But once they have died, then the number of deaths has to fall, back to a significantly lower value. It's why our 1st world is seen to suffer from many more deaths than any 3rd world country, the simple fact being those vunerable people have already died in those places where poor health care, diet and a non existent medical system fail to "keep them alive" as we do in the 1st world.

Now obviously this is little comfort if you are one of the people who is vunerable, or you have friends and family who are in that group, but i think it means we need to be a bit careful about just taking the current death rate, the rate that exists early on in this pandemic, and applying it linearly across the next few months??