Something doesn’t add up ??????
Discussion
Apologies for another CV thread but the main one is just shouty bickering.
Soooooooo.
Lockdown ( for want of a better word ) started on the 23rd March. That’s 5 weeks ago!
Most people seem to have been pretty respectful of the spirit of it.
A week after “Lockdown” we saw a massive spike in Deaths and infections attributed to Covid. Fair enough.
But why, 4 weeks later aren’t we seeing massive drops in the number dying (from/with) and the number catching in freefall?
It just seems strange. I know there’s an incubation period-accepted. But in pure number terms it looks like for all our efforts it hasn’t made and isn’t making much difference.
Am I missing something?
Soooooooo.
Lockdown ( for want of a better word ) started on the 23rd March. That’s 5 weeks ago!
Most people seem to have been pretty respectful of the spirit of it.
A week after “Lockdown” we saw a massive spike in Deaths and infections attributed to Covid. Fair enough.
But why, 4 weeks later aren’t we seeing massive drops in the number dying (from/with) and the number catching in freefall?
It just seems strange. I know there’s an incubation period-accepted. But in pure number terms it looks like for all our efforts it hasn’t made and isn’t making much difference.
Am I missing something?
It's a biological virus spreading in a population of humans with any number of variables such as population density, demographics of age, gender, ethnicity, and general health.
I think there are too many unknowns to expect it to conform to either computer models or patterns seen elsewhere,
I think there are too many unknowns to expect it to conform to either computer models or patterns seen elsewhere,
Thankyou4calling said:
But in pure number terms it looks like for all our efforts it hasn’t made and isn’t making much difference.
Am I missing something?
Three answers:Am I missing something?
- The hysterical loons on Twitter answer = we need more restrictions, a really proper lockdown with the Army on the streets.
- The government's answer = oh, it is working, just another few more weeks, let's not let it go to waste. Follow the five tests.
- The correct answer = it doesn't matter what we do; eventually the number infected will be the same in the long run. We've created sufficient capacity in the NHS, so we should now admit the truth: end the lockdown and get back to normal life.
100,000 deaths every year from heart disease, millions obese and suffering from associated health problems.
Where are the calls to ban junk food, sugary crap and cheap alcohol?
Yes CV is highly contagious, you can't catch obesity, but the death toll from CHD is way higher and always will be.
This disease is just as much a political problem as a health one, with social media and its associated failings driving government policy.
Where are the calls to ban junk food, sugary crap and cheap alcohol?
Yes CV is highly contagious, you can't catch obesity, but the death toll from CHD is way higher and always will be.
This disease is just as much a political problem as a health one, with social media and its associated failings driving government policy.
Thankyou4calling said:
It just seems strange. I know there’s an incubation period-accepted. But in pure number terms it looks like for all our efforts it hasn’t made and isn’t making much difference.
Am I missing something?
I was thinking the same. As you say, even taking into account the incubation period, the number of infections should be dropping significantly now given everyone has been in isolation for over four week.Am I missing something?
My theory is that hospitals are a hotbed for infection. As far as I can tell patients are not being tested on arrival, therefore how is there any chance of separating those who are infected and those who aren't.
Therefore, someone who is infected, but not showing symptoms and attending hospital for a non-CV reason can happily infect numerous other patients and staff while they get their broken arm, dodgy heart or whatever seen to.
Thankyou4calling said:
But why, 4 weeks later aren’t we seeing massive drops in the number dying (from/with) and the number catching in freefall?
It just seems strange.
I agree, and absolutely don't understand why the media are silent on the subject. It was all supposed to peak on Easter Sunday and then subside. There's no real sign of it subsiding and it marches on killing 600 to 800 a day in hospitals while leaving a path of destruction through care homes as well.It just seems strange.
UK performance looks particularly poor given that many other countries were suffering earlier - and UK should have had plenty of time to prepare.
World Health Organisation said the answer was "testing, testing, testing". UK has a shocking rate of deaths and testing has still barely got off the ground. Even at the supposed "100,000 a week" rate it would take more than FIVE YEARS to test the whole population.
It looks as though UK is making a complete hash of this. On the positive side at least the daily numbers aren't rising exponentially.
Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 25th April 17:23
The lockdown was intended - and has largely succeeded - to 'flatten the curve' - IE to arrest the exponential spread of the disease until NHS capacity is increased and either the population acquire herd immunity or a reliable vaccine is found.
The problem has been that the Facebook hysterics have got hold of this and stirred up a frankly demented national sentiment that deaths should be avoided at all costs. I was talking to a very senior former cabinet minister on Tuesday of this week who said that the problem we now have is that a deeply populist Govt will be unwilling to lift lockdown measures and re-start the economy until public mood swings away from the "more lockdown/noone must die/the NHS are angels" narrative towards "we want the economy back"
The problem is, we have too many self absorbed simpletons who think that the magic money tree will pay for all this
The problem has been that the Facebook hysterics have got hold of this and stirred up a frankly demented national sentiment that deaths should be avoided at all costs. I was talking to a very senior former cabinet minister on Tuesday of this week who said that the problem we now have is that a deeply populist Govt will be unwilling to lift lockdown measures and re-start the economy until public mood swings away from the "more lockdown/noone must die/the NHS are angels" narrative towards "we want the economy back"
The problem is, we have too many self absorbed simpletons who think that the magic money tree will pay for all this
Have been thinking the same. It seems to have flattened out at R=1 with a steady state of deaths. I wonder if this could be in the medical/hospital community and nursing homes as its surely fallen off massively in the wider community?
We do have increased testing catching more cases which might explain the infection numbers, but not the deaths.
We do have increased testing catching more cases which might explain the infection numbers, but not the deaths.
CzechItOut said:
I was thinking the same. As you say, even taking into account the incubation period, the number of infections should be dropping significantly now given everyone has been in isolation for over four week.
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The number of positive tests is pretty level while the total number of tests is increasing significantly.………………………………………………………………………………………….
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Someone said that 100 odd deaths reported as today's deaths occurred in the first 10 days of April. That's part of it.
The gamechanger *should* have been isolating the elderly/ vunerable. That *should* on it's own, and not including the lockdown, have seen a 90% drop in the death rate, once the relevant time period elapsed
My theory is sick people are getting transferred from care homes, and dying in hospital. Which buggers up using the 23rd of March as the starting point, when looking for a fall in daily deaths. If it runs rampant through care homes, we wont see much of a drop off at all, as it could kill dozens in one home, whereas it would perhaps kill a dozen in a whole town (where the vunerable were isolated)
The answer is, what you are missing is the fact that not everyone is locked down. There are still significant portions of society that need to go to work and mix with each other. there are still people going for walks passing others etc etc. So there are still people who are in close contact with others, or in enclosed spaces with others, breathing the same air. Its the population that are likely to be more exposed to the virus.
I'd love to know how many new infections are occurring in people who are isolated and following lock down procedures v those who are not.
I'd love to know how many new infections are occurring in people who are isolated and following lock down procedures v those who are not.
Still don’t think the majority get it. They think that locking down is going to get rid of the virus forever.
The change the narrative they need to start reducing the 80% payment saying we can’t afford it.
The change the narrative they need to start reducing the 80% payment saying we can’t afford it.
ClaphamGT3 said:
The lockdown was intended - and has largely succeeded - to 'flatten the curve' - IE to arrest the exponential spread of the disease until NHS capacity is increased and either the population acquire herd immunity or a reliable vaccine is found.
The problem has been that the Facebook hysterics have got hold of this and stirred up a frankly demented national sentiment that deaths should be avoided at all costs. I was talking to a very senior former cabinet minister on Tuesday of this week who said that the problem we now have is that a deeply populist Govt will be unwilling to lift lockdown measures and re-start the economy until public mood swings away from the "more lockdown/noone must die/the NHS are angels" narrative towards "we want the economy back"
The problem is, we have too many self absorbed simpletons who think that the magic money tree will pay for all this
The problem has been that the Facebook hysterics have got hold of this and stirred up a frankly demented national sentiment that deaths should be avoided at all costs. I was talking to a very senior former cabinet minister on Tuesday of this week who said that the problem we now have is that a deeply populist Govt will be unwilling to lift lockdown measures and re-start the economy until public mood swings away from the "more lockdown/noone must die/the NHS are angels" narrative towards "we want the economy back"
The problem is, we have too many self absorbed simpletons who think that the magic money tree will pay for all this
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