The Fall Of The West?
Discussion
MyNewLeng said:
For example, several years ago Dagong, the Chinese ratings agency, published a report analyzing the physical economy of the States comparing it with those of China, Germany and Japan. The conclusion was that the US GDP was something between $5 to $10 trillion instead of $15 trillion as officially reported by the USG.
Im supposed to believe China when they say that the US is faking data? 
Oh, hello Pot... meet Kettle.
Eric Mc said:
Pessimist.
Does it matter?
Aren't we all humans?
Why SHOULD "The West" assume any sort of superiority anyway?
Pessimist? Maybe. But there's certainly nothing to be optimistic about in this nightmare scenario. Does it matter?
Aren't we all humans?
Why SHOULD "The West" assume any sort of superiority anyway?
Does it matter? Yes. The economic impacts of the pandemic affect all of us.
Yes we're all humans. Not quite sure why you felt the need to put that in.
I'm not arguing who deserves to be the dominant power. I'm pointing out that the fall of any empire/superpower is very very painful for all of its citizens, especially one with such high living standards.
Drumroll said:
So the OP has only posted 4 times (@12:09 01-05-20) all about the fall of the Western world. Hidden agenda me thinks.
No agenda whatsoever. Just a lurker who imagined he would get some reasonable debate on this terrifying forecast which does appear to have a grain of truth in it. I'm not alone in thinking the economic ramifications of this mess are a one way ticket to economic and societal oblivion. I genuinely want to be proved wrong.
MyNewLeng said:
Drumroll said:
So the OP has only posted 4 times (@12:09 01-05-20) all about the fall of the Western world. Hidden agenda me thinks.
No agenda whatsoever. Just a lurker who imagined he would get some reasonable debate on this terrifying forecast which does appear to have a grain of truth in it. I'm not alone in thinking the economic ramifications of this mess are a one way ticket to economic and societal oblivion. I genuinely want to be proved wrong.
Most of the reasoning in the quoted bit, was poor, its only because we are in lockdown that it looks even remotely prescient.
It's been clear for at least 20 years that Asia (and specifically) China was the new rising power, but it has a long way to go to catch up with the West. Russia is an also ran with diminished power on the world stage, and the USA is rapidly giving away its influence and dominant position.
There will not be mass migration back to other nations, as for example, why would a migrant to relatively safe Europe/USA want to go back to a war-torn dictatorship and poverty? To believe that those countries will catch up and overtake Western countries in the next 30 years is stupid.
Anyway, I think you posted that intial piece with some sort of agenda, but can't quite see what it is due to the fact that the argument is poor and all over the place.
The demographics predictions the OP has posted certainly don't tally with those in the book the Age of Aging
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Age-Aging-Demographics-Ch...
If you want to feel all superior for the authors twitter account: https://twitter.com/georgemagnus1?ref_src=twsrc%5E...
He'll point out on a regular basis how china's economy is going to hell in and handcart thanks to demographics and central control.
The US and UK will have nice, productive young populations, thanks to immigration. For your right wing, nut job the problem is the colour of those immigrants.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Age-Aging-Demographics-Ch...
If you want to feel all superior for the authors twitter account: https://twitter.com/georgemagnus1?ref_src=twsrc%5E...
He'll point out on a regular basis how china's economy is going to hell in and handcart thanks to demographics and central control.
The US and UK will have nice, productive young populations, thanks to immigration. For your right wing, nut job the problem is the colour of those immigrants.
Edited by Fittster on Friday 1st May 12:47
Tannedbaldhead said:
Also, export the old.
Care homes in the 3rd world. Running costs would be a fraction of ours.
Our care of the elderly falls lessening the burden on our economy whilst 3rd world economies receive much needed and well earned stimulation.
Don't you have parents or is the exporting just other people's parents ?Care homes in the 3rd world. Running costs would be a fraction of ours.
Our care of the elderly falls lessening the burden on our economy whilst 3rd world economies receive much needed and well earned stimulation.
descentia said:
Tannedbaldhead said:
Also, export the old.
Care homes in the 3rd world. Running costs would be a fraction of ours.
Our care of the elderly falls lessening the burden on our economy whilst 3rd world economies receive much needed and well earned stimulation.
Don't you have parents or is the exporting just other people's parents ?Care homes in the 3rd world. Running costs would be a fraction of ours.
Our care of the elderly falls lessening the burden on our economy whilst 3rd world economies receive much needed and well earned stimulation.
Tannedbaldhead said:
Also, export the old.
Care homes in the 3rd world. Running costs would be a fraction of ours.
Our care of the elderly falls lessening the burden on our economy whilst 3rd world economies receive much needed and well earned stimulation.
No need, Covid is doing a good job of emptying them all out at the moment.Care homes in the 3rd world. Running costs would be a fraction of ours.
Our care of the elderly falls lessening the burden on our economy whilst 3rd world economies receive much needed and well earned stimulation.
phil4 said:
Tannedbaldhead said:
Also, export the old.
Care homes in the 3rd world. Running costs would be a fraction of ours.
Our care of the elderly falls lessening the burden on our economy whilst 3rd world economies receive much needed and well earned stimulation.
No need, Covid is doing a good job of emptying them all out at the moment.Care homes in the 3rd world. Running costs would be a fraction of ours.
Our care of the elderly falls lessening the burden on our economy whilst 3rd world economies receive much needed and well earned stimulation.
Being a bit more serious and compassionate here's how it goes.
Property in the South of Italy is dirt cheap. U can buy a nice little ground floor apartment in the villages round Cassino (say Cervaro) for Pnuts.
Move your decrepit olds in then move in a nice fit late 60s Polish au pair, recently retired and receiving a Polish pension to look after your parents.
Your parents get 24/7 one to one care the old polish lady gets her pension, some money from you and free accommodation in a sunny climate.
There is a lot of it happening already in Italy and agencies that provide the staff.
At present Vivid would make things difficult but this won't go on forever.
Property in the South of Italy is dirt cheap. U can buy a nice little ground floor apartment in the villages round Cassino (say Cervaro) for Pnuts.
Move your decrepit olds in then move in a nice fit late 60s Polish au pair, recently retired and receiving a Polish pension to look after your parents.
Your parents get 24/7 one to one care the old polish lady gets her pension, some money from you and free accommodation in a sunny climate.
There is a lot of it happening already in Italy and agencies that provide the staff.
At present Vivid would make things difficult but this won't go on forever.
MyNewLeng said:
I've recently stumbled upon this website. The author compiled this list of demographics and financial information for each country using 2017 statistics and a 2025 prediction.
The results for the US, UK and most other western nations are catastrophic to say the least.
http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx
Ordinarily I wouldn't bother giving a website like this a second thought and just brush it off as tin foil hattery.
However, the authors reasoning for these dire figures is starting to look oddly prophetic.
[I]There have been many questions about the countries forecast specially the one focusing on the United States of America (USA). They won't be answered one by one but below you can find some explanation, thoughts and reflections. We are going to keep this as short as possible.
The majority of the economic and demographic data used in the making of the forecasts is widely available by institutions such as the CIA, IMF, UN, USG, etc. You can see the most relevant data at every single country's page. There is a tiny part of data coming from a variety of shadow sources such as Internet gurus, unsigned reports and others. But all these sources are from the internet and are of public domain for at least a minority. For example, several years ago Dagong, the Chinese ratings agency, published a report analyzing the physical economy of the States comparing it with those of China, Germany and Japan. The conclusion was that the US GDP was something between $5 to $10 trillion instead of $15 trillion as officially reported by the USG. We assume that the official data, especially economic, released by governments is fake, cooked or distorted in some degree. Historically it is well known that the former Soviet Union was making up fake statistics years before its collapse. Western as well as other countries are making up their numbers today to conceal their real state of affairs. We are sure that many people out there can find government statistics in their own countries that by their own personal experience are hard to believe or are so optimistic that may belong to a different country.
Despite the numeric data "quantity" there is a "quality" model which has not a direct translation into numeric data. The 2014 strain of Ebola has a death rate of 50-60% but try to imagine what would happen if there is a pandemic of Ebola with hundreds of thousands or millions infected with the virus. So far the few cases of Ebola-infected people have "enjoyed" intensive healthcare with anti-viral and breathing assistance but above all with abundant human support by Physicians and nurses. In a pandemic scenario that kind of healthcare won't be available for the overwhelming number of infected leading to a dramatic increase of the death rate due to the lack of proper healthcare. The "quality" factor is that the death rate could increase to 80-90% in a pandemic scenario from the stated 50-60% rate. The figure itself is not important what is relevant is the fact that the scenario can evolve beyond the initial conditions from a 50% death toll to more than 90%. By the way, no pandemic or nuclear war is included in the forecast.
The key element to understand the process that the USA will enter in the upcoming decade is migration. In the past, specially in the 20th century, the key factor that allowed the USA to rise to its colossus status was immigration with the benefits of a demographic expansion supporting the credit expansion and the brain drain from the rest of the world benefiting the States. The collapse of the Western financial system will wipe out the standard of living of its population while ending ponzi schemes such as the stock exchange and the pension funds. The population will be hit so badly by a full array of bubbles and ponzi schemes that the migration engine will start to work in reverse accelerating itself due to ripple effects thus leading to the demise of the States. This unseen situation for the States will develop itself in a cascade pattern with unprecedented and devastating effects for the economy. Jobs offshoring will surely end with many American Corporations relocating overseas thus becoming foreign Corporations!!!! We see a significant part of the American population migrating to Latin America and Asia while migration to Europe - suffering a similar illness - won't be relevant. Nevertheless the death toll will be horrible. Take into account that the Soviet Union's population was poorer than the Americans nowadays or even then. The ex-Soviets suffered during the following struggle in the 1990s with a significant death toll and the loss of national pride. Might we say "Twice the pride, double the fall"? Nope. The American standard of living is one of the highest, far more than double of the Soviets while having added a services economy that will be gone along with the financial system. When pensioners see their retirement disappear in front of their eyes and there are no servicing jobs you can imagine what is going to happen next. At least younger people can migrate. Never in human history were so many elders among the population. In past centuries people were lucky to get to their 30s or 40s. The American downfall is set to be far worse than the Soviet Union's one. A confluence of crisis with a devastating result.
The Demographic crisis in the former Soviet Union countries has extended for over two decades, if we accept that it ended early in this decade (2010s). The demographic crisis will hit the World in the near future and is projected to last between three and eight decades more or less depending on technological breakthrough and environmental issues. The aftermath is more likely a frozen picture with the population numbers staying the same for a very, very long period of time. The countries forecast population numbers do reflect birth/deaths but also migratory movements. Many countries are going to increase their gross population due to immigration while their native population may shrink.
Over the past two thousand years we have witnessed the Western civilization built around the Mediterranean Sea shifting to Northern Europe and then by the mid 20th century shifting to an Atlantic axis to finally get centered into the States in the past 30 years. The next move will see the civilization being centered in Asia with Russia and China on top. Historically a change in the economic paradigm has resulted in a death toll that is rarely highlighted by mainstream historians. When the transition from rural areas to large cities happened in Europe many people unable to accept the new paradigm killed themselves. They killed themselves by a psychological factor. This is not mainstream but it is true. A new crisis joins old, well known patterns with new ones.
Sorry to disappoint many of you with our forecast. It is getting worse and worse every year since the beginning of the pre-crisis in 2007. It is already said that this website is non-profit, built on spare time and we provide our information and services AS IS without further explanations and/or guarantees. We are not linked to any government in any way, shape or form. We are not a death or satanic cult or arms dealers as some BS is floating around the internet on this topic. Take into account that the forecast is nothing more than a model whether flawed or correct. It is not God's word or a magic device that allows to foresee the future.
Sunday, October 26th, 2014"[/i]
So, is this the turning point? The pandemic prediction is certainly ringing true. The subsequent lockdown appears to be exposing the fact that modern economies are made of sand.
Reverse migration certainly sounds plausible. I could envisage a scenario where immigrants head back to their homelands which are more agriculture driven given that places like the UK cannot produce enough food to maintain a 65m+ population in the event of a economic and banking system collapse.
Mass suicide? I don't see why not. Most Westerners are used to a life of bread & circuses and cushy living standards. People will be offing themselves by the millions if they are forced into a "new normal" of poverty, homelessness etc. We're already in the midst of a mental health crisis during the lockdown...
A glum topic I know. But I can't help thinking the economic and military dominance of the West is coming to an end.
So the centre shifts - the parting on the left (West) is now the parting on the right (East) - meet the new boss (same as the old boss). Erm any evidence of these suicides - the industrial revolution wasn't met with suicides that I know of (most of the young drifted to cities as that was where the work was) . The results for the US, UK and most other western nations are catastrophic to say the least.
http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx
Ordinarily I wouldn't bother giving a website like this a second thought and just brush it off as tin foil hattery.
However, the authors reasoning for these dire figures is starting to look oddly prophetic.
[I]There have been many questions about the countries forecast specially the one focusing on the United States of America (USA). They won't be answered one by one but below you can find some explanation, thoughts and reflections. We are going to keep this as short as possible.
The majority of the economic and demographic data used in the making of the forecasts is widely available by institutions such as the CIA, IMF, UN, USG, etc. You can see the most relevant data at every single country's page. There is a tiny part of data coming from a variety of shadow sources such as Internet gurus, unsigned reports and others. But all these sources are from the internet and are of public domain for at least a minority. For example, several years ago Dagong, the Chinese ratings agency, published a report analyzing the physical economy of the States comparing it with those of China, Germany and Japan. The conclusion was that the US GDP was something between $5 to $10 trillion instead of $15 trillion as officially reported by the USG. We assume that the official data, especially economic, released by governments is fake, cooked or distorted in some degree. Historically it is well known that the former Soviet Union was making up fake statistics years before its collapse. Western as well as other countries are making up their numbers today to conceal their real state of affairs. We are sure that many people out there can find government statistics in their own countries that by their own personal experience are hard to believe or are so optimistic that may belong to a different country.
Despite the numeric data "quantity" there is a "quality" model which has not a direct translation into numeric data. The 2014 strain of Ebola has a death rate of 50-60% but try to imagine what would happen if there is a pandemic of Ebola with hundreds of thousands or millions infected with the virus. So far the few cases of Ebola-infected people have "enjoyed" intensive healthcare with anti-viral and breathing assistance but above all with abundant human support by Physicians and nurses. In a pandemic scenario that kind of healthcare won't be available for the overwhelming number of infected leading to a dramatic increase of the death rate due to the lack of proper healthcare. The "quality" factor is that the death rate could increase to 80-90% in a pandemic scenario from the stated 50-60% rate. The figure itself is not important what is relevant is the fact that the scenario can evolve beyond the initial conditions from a 50% death toll to more than 90%. By the way, no pandemic or nuclear war is included in the forecast.
The key element to understand the process that the USA will enter in the upcoming decade is migration. In the past, specially in the 20th century, the key factor that allowed the USA to rise to its colossus status was immigration with the benefits of a demographic expansion supporting the credit expansion and the brain drain from the rest of the world benefiting the States. The collapse of the Western financial system will wipe out the standard of living of its population while ending ponzi schemes such as the stock exchange and the pension funds. The population will be hit so badly by a full array of bubbles and ponzi schemes that the migration engine will start to work in reverse accelerating itself due to ripple effects thus leading to the demise of the States. This unseen situation for the States will develop itself in a cascade pattern with unprecedented and devastating effects for the economy. Jobs offshoring will surely end with many American Corporations relocating overseas thus becoming foreign Corporations!!!! We see a significant part of the American population migrating to Latin America and Asia while migration to Europe - suffering a similar illness - won't be relevant. Nevertheless the death toll will be horrible. Take into account that the Soviet Union's population was poorer than the Americans nowadays or even then. The ex-Soviets suffered during the following struggle in the 1990s with a significant death toll and the loss of national pride. Might we say "Twice the pride, double the fall"? Nope. The American standard of living is one of the highest, far more than double of the Soviets while having added a services economy that will be gone along with the financial system. When pensioners see their retirement disappear in front of their eyes and there are no servicing jobs you can imagine what is going to happen next. At least younger people can migrate. Never in human history were so many elders among the population. In past centuries people were lucky to get to their 30s or 40s. The American downfall is set to be far worse than the Soviet Union's one. A confluence of crisis with a devastating result.
The Demographic crisis in the former Soviet Union countries has extended for over two decades, if we accept that it ended early in this decade (2010s). The demographic crisis will hit the World in the near future and is projected to last between three and eight decades more or less depending on technological breakthrough and environmental issues. The aftermath is more likely a frozen picture with the population numbers staying the same for a very, very long period of time. The countries forecast population numbers do reflect birth/deaths but also migratory movements. Many countries are going to increase their gross population due to immigration while their native population may shrink.
Over the past two thousand years we have witnessed the Western civilization built around the Mediterranean Sea shifting to Northern Europe and then by the mid 20th century shifting to an Atlantic axis to finally get centered into the States in the past 30 years. The next move will see the civilization being centered in Asia with Russia and China on top. Historically a change in the economic paradigm has resulted in a death toll that is rarely highlighted by mainstream historians. When the transition from rural areas to large cities happened in Europe many people unable to accept the new paradigm killed themselves. They killed themselves by a psychological factor. This is not mainstream but it is true. A new crisis joins old, well known patterns with new ones.
Sorry to disappoint many of you with our forecast. It is getting worse and worse every year since the beginning of the pre-crisis in 2007. It is already said that this website is non-profit, built on spare time and we provide our information and services AS IS without further explanations and/or guarantees. We are not linked to any government in any way, shape or form. We are not a death or satanic cult or arms dealers as some BS is floating around the internet on this topic. Take into account that the forecast is nothing more than a model whether flawed or correct. It is not God's word or a magic device that allows to foresee the future.
Sunday, October 26th, 2014"[/i]
So, is this the turning point? The pandemic prediction is certainly ringing true. The subsequent lockdown appears to be exposing the fact that modern economies are made of sand.
Reverse migration certainly sounds plausible. I could envisage a scenario where immigrants head back to their homelands which are more agriculture driven given that places like the UK cannot produce enough food to maintain a 65m+ population in the event of a economic and banking system collapse.
Mass suicide? I don't see why not. Most Westerners are used to a life of bread & circuses and cushy living standards. People will be offing themselves by the millions if they are forced into a "new normal" of poverty, homelessness etc. We're already in the midst of a mental health crisis during the lockdown...
A glum topic I know. But I can't help thinking the economic and military dominance of the West is coming to an end.
Edited by MyNewLeng on Friday 1st May 11:44
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