General Election 2nd May 2024
Discussion
I predict that a lot will happen between now, and then, so it’s a tad premature to pose the question.
Taxes are going to go up, a lot. So anyone wanting to transfer more wealth to the Less-well-off is going to have a struggle. Competence is likely to be a strong influence, but the lack of it did not stop Boris from getting a massive majority last December.
The 2nd May is also just before the Bank holiday weekend, so probably a non starter.
Taxes are going to go up, a lot. So anyone wanting to transfer more wealth to the Less-well-off is going to have a struggle. Competence is likely to be a strong influence, but the lack of it did not stop Boris from getting a massive majority last December.
The 2nd May is also just before the Bank holiday weekend, so probably a non starter.
Edited by rdjohn on Saturday 23 May 14:34
Boris will still be there. If he clung on whilst proroging parliament with a minority government there's no way he'll walk away with his majority.
Of course this being the Torys he could always be knifed in the back, but I think that will largely depend on whether the papers are full of Brexit or Coronavirus in three years.
Of course this being the Torys he could always be knifed in the back, but I think that will largely depend on whether the papers are full of Brexit or Coronavirus in three years.
The last election was, most commentators agree, a one factor election. Just to confuse matters, there was the Corbyn effect, one I think was underrated. He divided the party, and that's never a good tactic. So take your pick as to which had the greater effect.
Whichever you choose, it means that there will be a new basis for the next. It won't be so simple. It might go back to the old reasons for floating voters, the only ones that matter, to pick a particular party. The main one has normally been the state of the finances. Or rather, the state of their finances. If that is the main factor, then we can predict certain aspects.
Our response to Coronavirus has cost us. It's a massive amount, and one that can only result in an increase in taxes and cutting back of state funding.
On top of that, regardless of your beliefs, brexit will cost us. It is all a question of how much. If we get a deal, then not so much. If we go out into the wide world with no deal, with no WTO left, it will be cold. It will have to be paid for.
So taxes up and even further cutbacks on funding. They can't cut the police as it is showing the bones now. They can't attack the NHS; Coronavirus removed that opportunity. The civil service is struggling now. And so on. The years of cutbacks have cut back on available savings.
It's not looking a safe tory bet on the economy. The placards will ask where the brexit bonus is.
Then there's the opposition. Starmer has started well by all accounts, and those that don't agree suggest he's started very well. It's a matter of a/ can he keep it up, and b/ can he keep his left down. It's early days, and much too soon to suggest it will be a significant factor, but he has got high approval ratings. Remember, it's the floating voter who matters most. They are the ones who decide elections. They are the ones who vote for the government.
Johnson has suffered a blow with Cummings. It was his choice to back him, and these things leave nasty, festering memories. Alone it won't mean much, but we are talking about a man whose history shows making big errors is his most consistent MO. I reckon Cummings was his first. Having whips having to apologise to ministers for following Johnson's orders upsets the whips as much as those bullied. Not the way to ensure backing in difficult times. And we'll have plenty of them.
Despite all the above, I don't think it will be much of a change next election. It will be a two factor one: brexit, or rather the missing bonus that was promised, and the leader of the opposition.
Whichever you choose, it means that there will be a new basis for the next. It won't be so simple. It might go back to the old reasons for floating voters, the only ones that matter, to pick a particular party. The main one has normally been the state of the finances. Or rather, the state of their finances. If that is the main factor, then we can predict certain aspects.
Our response to Coronavirus has cost us. It's a massive amount, and one that can only result in an increase in taxes and cutting back of state funding.
On top of that, regardless of your beliefs, brexit will cost us. It is all a question of how much. If we get a deal, then not so much. If we go out into the wide world with no deal, with no WTO left, it will be cold. It will have to be paid for.
So taxes up and even further cutbacks on funding. They can't cut the police as it is showing the bones now. They can't attack the NHS; Coronavirus removed that opportunity. The civil service is struggling now. And so on. The years of cutbacks have cut back on available savings.
It's not looking a safe tory bet on the economy. The placards will ask where the brexit bonus is.
Then there's the opposition. Starmer has started well by all accounts, and those that don't agree suggest he's started very well. It's a matter of a/ can he keep it up, and b/ can he keep his left down. It's early days, and much too soon to suggest it will be a significant factor, but he has got high approval ratings. Remember, it's the floating voter who matters most. They are the ones who decide elections. They are the ones who vote for the government.
Johnson has suffered a blow with Cummings. It was his choice to back him, and these things leave nasty, festering memories. Alone it won't mean much, but we are talking about a man whose history shows making big errors is his most consistent MO. I reckon Cummings was his first. Having whips having to apologise to ministers for following Johnson's orders upsets the whips as much as those bullied. Not the way to ensure backing in difficult times. And we'll have plenty of them.
Despite all the above, I don't think it will be much of a change next election. It will be a two factor one: brexit, or rather the missing bonus that was promised, and the leader of the opposition.
Edited by Derek Smith on Tuesday 26th May 08:50
Derek Smith said:
....
Despite all the above, I don't think it will be much of a change next election. It will be a two factor one: brexit, or rather the missing bonus that was promised, and the leader of the opposition....
They'll have 4yrs to put both of these events behind them and build.Despite all the above, I don't think it will be much of a change next election. It will be a two factor one: brexit, or rather the missing bonus that was promised, and the leader of the opposition....
Frankly, I fancy their chances of doing that than of Starmer's chances of uniting the Labour party into any sort of credible force. If he'd come straight out of the bocks kicking Momentum in the nuts he might have had a chance. Doesn't seem to want to do that though...and betting the lot on people appreciating his solemn questioning on Covid19 and, no doubt, Brexit later is a big punt.
When we're out of the virus woods, and if the EU continue not to budge on their unreasonable (but not wholly unexpected and perfectly in their gift) approach, let's see how well Starmer does with Momentum still on his shoulders. (If the EU do budge...well it just gets worse for him on every front).
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