Will Brexit break up the United Kingdom?

[LimJim]

I'm curious to read opinions on how a hard Brexit might impact on England's relationship with Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland?

[Spitwad]

Didn't Brexiteers once promise a free trade area ten times bigger than the European union? We've ended up with a free trade area smaller than the UK with a barrier in the Irish sea & requiring passports to get into Kent.

I'd say the chance of the union surviving are somewhere south of 50%.

[Fatball]

Surely if Wales and Scotland went their own way, they would struggle economically? Potentially pushing them towards cash from Russian/China who would love to have that sort of influence?

Or the EU may want to invest so you’ve got an isolated England?

U.K. money spent per head a year.
England £9584
NI £11590
Scotland £11427
Wales £10656

Looking at the reasoning for Brexit, won’t England be better off if they were not funding the other U.K. countries?

I’ve no idea but maybe someone can explain further than my basic understanding.

[BlackLabel]

No.

But the UK will split eventually - Northern Ireland’s rapidly changing demographics will see to that.

[NoddyonNitrous]

I think we need to wait 5 years and see how it all shakes out.
Don't want to rush into the 'united we stand, divided someone falls' too soon.

[anonymous-user]

I'm 50:50 on the UK remaining together.

Potentially:

I see Scotland getting another referendum, and this time, I feel it will be a narrow win for independence, and that will then result in various messy negotiations about how we manage the border issue, and if they will be attempting to rejoin the EU etc.

I also think that eventually Northern Ireland will be 'offered' reunification with Ireland, or they may even demand reunification with Ireland. But that seems like a stretch given that the feeling in Ireland is "We don't want Northern Ireland", which quite surprised me, but there you go.

Don't think Wales will go anywhere.

Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 13th December 14:28

[Deathmole]

LimJim said:

I'm curious to read opinions on how a hard Brexit might impact on England's relationship with Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland?

What about their relationships with each other too, or is this a case of England bad, everyone else good?

[LimJim]

Deathmole said:

What about their relationships with each other too, or is this a case of England bad, everyone else good?

It's a good question. I'm less interested in good and bad, as, what's likely and unlikely to happen.

[GT03ROB]

Scotland needs to be in the UK or the EU. It cannot be in neither.

If the EU would welcome them it’s possible.

[PositronicRay]

It would make sense for NI to split. The rest of us will just huddle together.

[alabbasi]

I thought BOJO said that he'll get a new deal and it will be better. Why is this guy still prime minister?

[johnboy1975]

Fatball said:

Surely if Wales and Scotland went their own way, they would struggle economically? Potentially pushing them towards cash from Russian/China who would love to have that sort of influence?

Or the EU may want to invest so you’ve got an isolated England?

U.K. money spent per head a year.
England £9584
NI £11590
Scotland £11427
Wales £10656

Looking at the reasoning for Brexit, won’t England be better off if they were not funding the other U.K. countries?

I’ve no idea but maybe someone can explain further than my basic understanding.

Given those figures i don't understand why Scotland would want to leave economically, nor what they think they gain by being 'independent'

The only case I think Sturgeon could make would be if the (nasty) English were spending more on the English than the Scots.

I was going to say Scotland leaving the union would be an even bigger stshow than Brexit, but I'm not sure if that's the case. What was the time frame for them leaving last referendum? How long does it take to create a currency would be the biggest problem off the top of my head.

Whereas I think the theoretical benefits of leaving the EU are much clearer, with the caveat that if they want to make things awkward, they can - which pretty much rules out all of those theoretical benefits......

[Earthdweller]

Spitwad said:

Didn't Brexiteers once promise a free trade area ten times bigger than the European union? We've ended up with a free trade area smaller than the UK with a barrier in the Irish sea & requiring passports to get into Kent.

I'd say the chance of the union surviving are somewhere south of 50%.

We have negotiated fta’s with 57 countries with a population greater than that of the EU

The land mass covered is also far greater than the size of the EU

There are other agreements still to be made and ongoing and if you add the signed MRA’a with the USA and others it cover twice the population of the EU and way way more land mass, maybe not quite 10x the size of the EU but probably not far off

So the promise wasn’t far off being right

[Spitwad]

Earthdweller said:

We have negotiated fta’s with 57 countries with a population greater than that of the EU

The land mass covered is also far greater than the size of the EU

There are other agreements still to be made and ongoing and if you add the signed MRA’a with the USA and others it cover twice the population of the EU and way way more land mass, maybe not quite 10x the size of the EU but probably not far off

So the promise wasn’t far off being right

There is so much wrong with this that it's difficult to know where to start with it. So what I suggest is you have a long, hard look at what you wrote & start again. To help you along, maybe do a search using words like continuity, roll over & most of all 'EU FTA's'.

[anonymous-user]

Wonder if Scotland will take on their fare share of the newly enlarged UK debt?

If after seeing all of the problems associated with Brexit, will they still want to be independent?

I suspect the SNP idea of independence will change to Scotland having the freedoms and rUK pays for it so no change really.

[powerstroke]

The SNP only want independence as a weapon if they actually gained it they would st themselves..

[anonymous-user]

johnboy1975 said:

Given those figures i don't understand why Scotland would want to leave economically, nor what they think they gain by being 'independent'

The only case I think Sturgeon could make would be if the (nasty) English were spending more on the English than the Scots.

I was going to say Scotland leaving the union would be an even bigger stshow than Brexit, but I'm not sure if that's the case. What was the time frame for them leaving last referendum? How long does it take to create a currency would be the biggest problem off the top of my head.

Whereas I think the theoretical benefits of leaving the EU are much clearer, with the caveat that if they want to make things awkward, they can - which pretty much rules out all of those theoretical benefits......

I spent a bit of time working up in Scotland for a few months at the end of last 2019, and I chatted about the SNP and independence with the guys I was working with up there, and their view was that whilst a significant portion of Scots loved the 'romantic idea' of being independent and 'free', and indeed made a lot of noise about it, they wouldn't actually vote for it.

They said that the stereotype of the 'thrifty Scotsman' would rear its head in most people, and deep down they all know the sums simply don't make sense.

They can't afford to leave, and they all know it. They depend on cash from England too much.

Having said that, they must be watching the utter train-wreck in Westminster that has been going on for 4 years now and support for the SNP must be growing accordingly.

[amusingduck]

johnboy1975 said:

Given those figures i don't understand why Scotland would want to leave economically, nor what they think they gain by being 'independent'

They just pretend the Scottish Government's figures are wrong!!

these-islands said:

When presented with the simple facts – data provided by the Scottish Government which shows that Scotland currently “gets back more” in spending than it generates in taxes – the participants’ reactions were surprising. We might have expected them to accept the veracity of the data but shrug their shoulders, but that is not what happened.

Very consistently they simply refused to believe that the numbers could be true. It became clear that they could not reconcile their support for independence with the fiscal truth. “If this was true, surely nobody would support independence” said one independence supporter.

https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i365/why_sturgeon_might_not_actually_be_leading_an_unstoppable_force.aspx

[alabbasi]

Earthdweller said:

We have negotiated fta’s with 57 countries with a population greater than that of the EU

The land mass covered is also far greater than the size of the EU

There are other agreements still to be made and ongoing and if you add the signed MRA’a with the USA and others it cover twice the population of the EU and way way more land mass, maybe not quite 10x the size of the EU but probably not far off

So the promise wasn’t far off being right

That's so spintastic, it reminds me of the Dave Chappelle 'coalition of the willing' sketch

[anonymoususer]

No
Because well its obvious isn't it