Will the long boom (93-07) be looked on as a golden period?
Discussion
One of the longest sustained GDP growth periods in the post war period. Large, sustained falls in unemployment. Good wage growth, including introduction of minimum wage. Last time property prices were low multiples of average earnings. Large increase in health spending. Large private and public sector investment in large inner cities, leading to the regeneration of many. Huge boom in consumer choice.
Technology much more accessible for many households over the period with many game changers such as affordable computers, internet (then broadband) and mobiles. Majority governments, relative political stability in the UK, Europe and globally. Expansion of further education.
To counter: Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, 9/11 and Al-Qaeda, more public (and private) debt, further dwindling of British manufacturing, more globalisation, and possibly increased reliance on financial services and London in the UK economy. Increase in wealth gap between lower and upper echelons of society.
Thoughts?
Technology much more accessible for many households over the period with many game changers such as affordable computers, internet (then broadband) and mobiles. Majority governments, relative political stability in the UK, Europe and globally. Expansion of further education.
To counter: Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, 9/11 and Al-Qaeda, more public (and private) debt, further dwindling of British manufacturing, more globalisation, and possibly increased reliance on financial services and London in the UK economy. Increase in wealth gap between lower and upper echelons of society.
Thoughts?
I suggest that the Western world is going to come out of Covid with a 'K shaped recovery', with Covid accelerating existing inequalities. The rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer. It will become harder and harder for people without existing assets within their families to accumulate capital, with potentially disastrous long term consequences for capitalism. BUT for now it seems UK voters love the Tories so it'll be a while before we see any practical change.
Whether 93-07 therefore counts as a 'golden period' or 'a fantasy that we've now woken up from' is therefore moot.
Whether 93-07 therefore counts as a 'golden period' or 'a fantasy that we've now woken up from' is therefore moot.
So does that mean that time will be seen as a high water mark, or not? I don't think the economic model has changed much from the Thatcher reforms through to now, including the Blair/Brown era. The Labour administration saw higher public spending, but it's all been dwarfed by what we've seen over the last year. The difference then was that there seemed to be more stability and less uncertainty- both economically and politically.
A lot of developed economies seem to be in the same boat of having very high public debt levels.
It will be interesting to see what the next paradigm shift will be.
A lot of developed economies seem to be in the same boat of having very high public debt levels.
It will be interesting to see what the next paradigm shift will be.
I was at uni from 2003 to 2006. Throughout this time some of the people I still know, pissed away significant amounts of money on clothes , booze and generally having a great time. Noone was worried about unemployment or not being able to make good money when they graduated.
To an extent that played out, most people graduated in 2006 and found decent paying jobs.
I don't remember coming to an end of my training and needing to find a job in the 2008/2009 period with much fondness. A particular low point was sitting in a cafe with a recruitment consultant in 2008, and being told, in so far as finding a new role was concerned, that the "shop was closed" and there were pretty much no jobs out there at the moment.
What a difference a year made eh.
To an extent that played out, most people graduated in 2006 and found decent paying jobs.
I don't remember coming to an end of my training and needing to find a job in the 2008/2009 period with much fondness. A particular low point was sitting in a cafe with a recruitment consultant in 2008, and being told, in so far as finding a new role was concerned, that the "shop was closed" and there were pretty much no jobs out there at the moment.
What a difference a year made eh.
I bore the arse off every teen I talk to about this. I don’t actually think 97-00 was that good, it was a really weird time. There was a sense that something was coming but the tech had yet to arrive. People were still watching tiny TVs with 4 channels, and we were still in the pre credit era with very old fashioned notions about money. In all fairness things hadn’t changed much since the 60’s. Then it happened; in around 2000. Internet, mobile phones( yes they had been around a few years but payg exploded ownership, now you could text and arrange that nite out). More tv channels on freeview as well, oh and better TVs to watch it on. A huge, unprecedented expansion of credit led to a standard of living unseen in this country before. One long party. You would get home from work and every day there was a credit card application form through the letter box. For the petrol heads it was nirvana, top gear on tv, and seemingly new super cars every week. It was also a time the internet added to life rather than controlled it. But it was the pubs that sealed it, they still retained the charm they had before, but seemingly everyone was out. The feel good factor was at an all time high. Oh and you could smoke in pubs.
markcoznottz said:
I bore the arse off every teen I talk to about this. I don’t actually think 97-00 was that good, it was a really weird time. There was a sense that something was coming but the tech had yet to arrive. People were still watching tiny TVs with 4 channels, and we were still in the pre credit era with very old fashioned notions about money. In all fairness things hadn’t changed much since the 60’s. Then it happened; in around 2000. Internet, mobile phones( yes they had been around a few years but payg exploded ownership, now you could text and arrange that nite out). More tv channels on freeview as well, oh and better TVs to watch it on. A huge, unprecedented expansion of credit led to a standard of living unseen in this country before. One long party. You would get home from work and every day there was a credit card application form through the letter box. For the petrol heads it was nirvana, top gear on tv, and seemingly new super cars every week. It was also a time the internet added to life rather than controlled it. But it was the pubs that sealed it, they still retained the charm they had before, but seemingly everyone was out. The feel good factor was at an all time high. Oh and you could smoke in pubs.
Interesting. it is crazy how quickly consumer tech advanced in the 90s and 00s. I remember getting my first fully fledged PC as a kid in 1999 which was a decent mid-range specced system, yet it didn't have a DVD drive or CD-writer, never mind DVD writer! 56k internet and a big, heavy, warm Sony Trinitron monitor. I got a CD-writer in 2001, broadband in 2002 and a DVD-writer in (I think) 2003, and we weren't a particularly rich household. The CD-writer was £45 new, and I think they were about £200 only a few years before. Hard drive capacity, processing power, writer speed and cost all changed dramatically for the better around this time.I suppose it only accelerated trends and changes from decades before, but it definitely felt exciting.
Graduated in 2001 and did MA in 2002 sept 11th made getting a job tough then year later working in the city, and it was plain sailing till 2008 I think 2005 I had 3 offers at same time and got to pick, cash was easy to come buy, sky tv broadband first smart phones, ps3, blue ray, mortgage at 5x etc. An then 2008, and its never been the same since, every year it hers harder, every year firms cut budgets, the government in recent years going after freelancers, leaving the EU making cash even thinner on the ground, stamp duty doubled if you buy an investment property, a minimum wage rising, but all other wage rates stagnating, kids today leaving uni with degrees in soft subjects and 50k in debt.
Yeah pre 2008 were good times, post then its never been the same unless your rich, average or poor, that easy feeling gets further an further away.
Yeah pre 2008 were good times, post then its never been the same unless your rich, average or poor, that easy feeling gets further an further away.
sociopath said:
Do you want to tell that to all my pals and colleagues that lost their jobs in the IT industry?
Show me the effect of this event on a UK unemployment rate graph. There will always be job losses in industry- even in "boom" times. Most people working in IT would likely pick up jobs afterwards, especially the way the sector has expanded over the past few decades.Try seeing if you get similar bouncebacks from the decline of the coal, hosiery, steel, shipbuilding and other heavy industries that have declined since the 70s. Some people can and will retrain, but a lot of those jobs are gone forever.
sociopath said:
Fusion777 said:
sociopath said:
Have you forgotten dotcom?
Affected the stock market, but not GDP/unemployment levels etc in the UK.
). Six months earlier the HR manager was telling me he'd enough work to recruit every student in Belfast. Things can change very quickly.I don't know the figures but many of those sacked never really got their career back on track, there's a large luck factor on who did and who didn't.
I look back at some of the technology we were working on then (voip, SMS, IVR, E112 etc) and it seems almost quaint. The level of advancement in technology is phenomenal but it's definitely not a case of a rising tide lifting all boats. At some point the increasing weath divide will need addressed before people start getting the guillotine out
.Fusion777 said:
markcoznottz said:
I bore the arse off every teen I talk to about this. I don’t actually think 97-00 was that good, it was a really weird time. There was a sense that something was coming but the tech had yet to arrive. People were still watching tiny TVs with 4 channels, and we were still in the pre credit era with very old fashioned notions about money. In all fairness things hadn’t changed much since the 60’s. Then it happened; in around 2000. Internet, mobile phones( yes they had been around a few years but payg exploded ownership, now you could text and arrange that nite out). More tv channels on freeview as well, oh and better TVs to watch it on. A huge, unprecedented expansion of credit led to a standard of living unseen in this country before. One long party. You would get home from work and every day there was a credit card application form through the letter box. For the petrol heads it was nirvana, top gear on tv, and seemingly new super cars every week. It was also a time the internet added to life rather than controlled it. But it was the pubs that sealed it, they still retained the charm they had before, but seemingly everyone was out. The feel good factor was at an all time high. Oh and you could smoke in pubs.
Interesting. it is crazy how quickly consumer tech advanced in the 90s and 00s. I remember getting my first fully fledged PC as a kid in 1999 which was a decent mid-range specced system, yet it didn't have a DVD drive or CD-writer, never mind DVD writer! 56k internet and a big, heavy, warm Sony Trinitron monitor. I got a CD-writer in 2001, broadband in 2002 and a DVD-writer in (I think) 2003, and we weren't a particularly rich household. The CD-writer was £45 new, and I think they were about £200 only a few years before. Hard drive capacity, processing power, writer speed and cost all changed dramatically for the better around this time.I suppose it only accelerated trends and changes from decades before, but it definitely felt exciting.
k all in the ‘olden days’ . Inflation adjusted a cd album in 1993 would be about £30 now. Plus a hugely expensive ‘hi fi’ system. Let’s be honest most tech was a disappointment. Ironically the cassette was the biggest success purely based on its portability, despite having lower sound quality than the cd and record. My first Hewlett Packard pc was £700 in 2000, Just in time for ntl (remember them? ) to launch unlimited dial up. Ah nostalgia. The internet was a bit clunky until 2006, when you tube was launched. A real step forward. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff