Solar cycle 25
Discussion
Fairly basic stuff, not really a science topic but news worthy.
The sun goes in roughly a 11 year cycle of activity as you will be aware we have in the last couple of years had fairly long period with very little solar activity meaning there has been very little ionisation of the upper atmosphere so, no, or very little in the way of Arora, rather unspectacular radio propagation and arguably an effect on global weather. There are now some sun spots evident suggesting we are on the upwards trend for the next few years. The last few days produced some good Arora visible from Northern England. First decent show for quite a while.
The sun goes in roughly a 11 year cycle of activity as you will be aware we have in the last couple of years had fairly long period with very little solar activity meaning there has been very little ionisation of the upper atmosphere so, no, or very little in the way of Arora, rather unspectacular radio propagation and arguably an effect on global weather. There are now some sun spots evident suggesting we are on the upwards trend for the next few years. The last few days produced some good Arora visible from Northern England. First decent show for quite a while.
Solar physicist Leif Svalgaard earned laurels for successfully predicting the strength of SC24
Here's his prediction for SC25:
Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and progress is slow. Schatten et al. (1978) suggested that the magnitude of the magnetic field in the polar regions of the sun near solar minimum could serve as a precursor for the evolution and amplitude of the following solar cycle. Since then, this idea has been the foundation of somewhat successful predictions of the size of the last four cycles, especially of the unexpectedly weak solar cycle 24 ("the weakest in 100 years"). Direct measurements of the polar magnetic fields are available since the 1970s and we have just passed the solar minimum prior to solar cycle 25, so a further test of the polar field precursor method is now possible. The predicted size of the new cycle 25 is 128±10 (on the new sunspot number version 2 scale), slightly larger than the previous cycle.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.02370
Here's his prediction for SC25:
Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and progress is slow. Schatten et al. (1978) suggested that the magnitude of the magnetic field in the polar regions of the sun near solar minimum could serve as a precursor for the evolution and amplitude of the following solar cycle. Since then, this idea has been the foundation of somewhat successful predictions of the size of the last four cycles, especially of the unexpectedly weak solar cycle 24 ("the weakest in 100 years"). Direct measurements of the polar magnetic fields are available since the 1970s and we have just passed the solar minimum prior to solar cycle 25, so a further test of the polar field precursor method is now possible. The predicted size of the new cycle 25 is 128±10 (on the new sunspot number version 2 scale), slightly larger than the previous cycle.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.02370
It is difficult to think of any thing more important or news worthy than what the sun is doing. We have just had an unusually lacklustre 11 year cycle followed by a long period of inactivity which now looks like it has ended.
You may perhaps have a solar powered torch or solar panels on the roof but remember that the diesel fueled van which delivered them and the coal that powered the factory in china where they were made and your meal this evening are all solar power
You may perhaps have a solar powered torch or solar panels on the roof but remember that the diesel fueled van which delivered them and the coal that powered the factory in china where they were made and your meal this evening are all solar power
steve-V8s said:
It is difficult to think of any thing more important or news worthy than what the sun is doing. We have just had an unusually lacklustre 11 year cycle followed by a long period of inactivity which now looks like it has ended.
You may perhaps have a solar powered torch or solar panels on the roof but remember that the diesel fueled van which delivered them and the coal that powered the factory in china where they were made and your meal this evening are all solar power
It's worth noting that, despite being lacklustre, it gave us the solar storm of 2012. Which missed Earth by 9 days. Had it hit, it would have caused a geomagnetic storm comparable with the Carrington Event of 1859. That saw fires in telegraph offices due to the induced currents, shocking operators. Aurorae visible in the Caribbean. Damage estimates in the region of $1 trillion today, due to the damage to electronics, particularly large scale systems like the national grid. You may perhaps have a solar powered torch or solar panels on the roof but remember that the diesel fueled van which delivered them and the coal that powered the factory in china where they were made and your meal this evening are all solar power
Edited by Solocle on Saturday 6th November 20:58
Solocle said:
It's worth noting that, despite being lacklustre, it gave us the solar storm of 2012. Which missed Earth by 9 days. Had it hit, it would have caused a geomagnetic storm comparable with the Carrington Event of 1859. That saw fires in telegraph offices due to the induced currents, shocking operators. Aurorae visible in the Caribbean. Damage estimates in the region of $1 trillion today, due to the damage to electronics, particularly large scale systems like the national grid.
$1 trillion? Upper bound for estimates was $2.6 trillion in 2013, so more today: https://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/reports/emer...Edited by Solocle on Saturday 6th November 20:58
On the plus side, that’s less than 10% of the estimated cost / impact of Covid-19 so far, so “just a scratch” in global terms
Bob_The_Builder said:
Indeed I have no idea what this is. Please educate us minions.
We've had a science forum on PH for quite a few years. We discuss all sorts of sciency stuff over there - with quite a large element of it devoted to space related matters. It's quite good.https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/forum.asp?h=0&...
Solocle said:
steve-V8s said:
It is difficult to think of any thing more important or news worthy than what the sun is doing. We have just had an unusually lacklustre 11 year cycle followed by a long period of inactivity which now looks like it has ended.
You may perhaps have a solar powered torch or solar panels on the roof but remember that the diesel fueled van which delivered them and the coal that powered the factory in china where they were made and your meal this evening are all solar power
It's worth noting that, despite being lacklustre, it gave us the solar storm of 2012. Which missed Earth by 9 days. Had it hit, it would have caused a geomagnetic storm comparable with the Carrington Event of 1859. That saw fires in telegraph offices due to the induced currents, shocking operators. Aurorae visible in the Caribbean. Damage estimates in the region of $1 trillion today, due to the damage to electronics, particularly large scale systems like the national grid. You may perhaps have a solar powered torch or solar panels on the roof but remember that the diesel fueled van which delivered them and the coal that powered the factory in china where they were made and your meal this evening are all solar power
Edited by Solocle on Saturday 6th November 20:58
Just off for some bog roll...
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