This doesn't look good. (Ukraine)

[anonymous-user]

If the Russians actually invade, what would the West's response be?

https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embass...

[gotoPzero]

I think they will either go early, maybe in the next 2 weeks or they will wait for another 3-4 months.
As for our response, I don't think it would be much tbh.

[ruggedscotty]

If the russians invade then its because the ukrainians turned off the gas,,,,

putin has stated quite clearly. I dont think the ukrainians are stupid enough to do this, but putin wants to ensure that he has forces sitting to put the pressure onn them to ensure they do nothing stupid.

[anonymous-user]

I thought Russia supplied the gas?

[Mazinbrum]

digimeistter said:

I thought Russia supplied the gas?

Yup, to the pipeline through Ukraine,if Ukraine turn it off the Russians lose a lot of dosh.

[anonymous-user]

Mazinbrum said:

digimeistter said:

I thought Russia supplied the gas?

Yup, to the pipeline through Ukraine,if Ukraine turn it off the Russians lose a lot of dosh.

Why would they turn it off?

Surely they are earning from that pipeline and going West is going to damage Europe and our gas supply - no?

[ruggedscotty]

digimeistter said:

Mazinbrum said:

digimeistter said:

I thought Russia supplied the gas?

Yup, to the pipeline through Ukraine,if Ukraine turn it off the Russians lose a lot of dosh.

Why would they turn it off?

Surely they are earning from that pipeline and going West is going to damage Europe and our gas supply - no?

ukraine maybe trying to get something from russia, afterall russia is looking to bypass ukraine.... tensions escalating

[Stick Legs]

‘Give up your nuclear arsenal & we will protect you’

Not an actual quote from the negotiations with a newly independent Ukraine but pretty much the gist of it.

Now anyone sensible knows that Ukraine’s collection of ex-Soviet-Cold-War ordnance was more of a liability to the operator than the enemy but can you imagine Putin pulling this stunt if they still had it?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_an...

If we don’t get involved we are liars.
If we do it escalates massively.

Tough call.
1) Morally we should be present in force with the US.
2) Stepping in to the breach the last time a dictator tried to roll up a few Eastern European countries led to a rather protracted conflict.

[CloudStuff]

fesuvious said:

Is Putin the cleverest top dog on the planet?

Unfortunately, I think he is.

He is, he’s playing everybody with all the expertise of a KGB agent.

Thinking about it though - and the same goes for China - he has immense power in wielding these threats. But that’s as far as the power goes.

Sure, he could invade but there is nothing to gain from a full scale conflict for him. It’s still mutually assured destruction.

There’s no route to topple the Western powers through conventional invasion. Same goes for China. Push things in a substantial manner and a full scale war would leave them, and all of us, decimated.

They depend on the status quo as much as any other country. All bark, no bite.

[anonymous-user]

Maybe taking advantage of the Western Alliance being in complete disarray, with no powerful leaders?

[Evanivitch]

We'll do nothing. Ukraine is a buffer state, one that isn't part of NATO and will not trigger a collective response. The UK will reinforce the Balkans and Poland alongside our allies, and Russia will fight a "liberation" war through Ukraine as large parts of the Ukrainian military either fall as sympathisers or withdraw to Poland.

That's my opinion.

[Octoposse]

We’re quite happy to fight to the last Ukrainian, as a cynical alternative to giving Putin what he actually wants - a peace deal.

Same deal that’s been obviously on the table for seven years - recognising Russian sovereignty in Crimea, and some fig leaf of federal solution for East Ukraine and protection of ethnic Russians.

I can’t think that anyone actually wants a military escalation - but the chance of bluff calling spiralling into something that neither side intended is a possibility.