China's Demographics - Collapse within 10 years.
Discussion
According to this guy, if the numbers are right (and wage inflation is consistent with the numbers) China are going to cease to be a great power imminently and the manufacturing will be leaving imminently.
50m45s
https://youtu.be/qWyhKobyM68
50m45s
https://youtu.be/qWyhKobyM68
anonymoususer said:
We may see once again Made In Japan on some of our electricals.
It's a phrase that would normally have been lost to time but for some odd reason it hasn't
I dunno about that - the population of Japan dropped by 640,000 or something last year. More adult diapers are sold in Japan that those for children! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_JapanIt's a phrase that would normally have been lost to time but for some odd reason it hasn't
But yeah, the China thing is extraordinary!
BikeBikeBIke said:
According to this guy, if the numbers are right (and wage inflation is consistent with the numbers) China are going to cease to be a great power imminently and the manufacturing will be leaving imminently.
50m45s
https://youtu.be/qWyhKobyM68
That entire video is quite astonishing, I’m currently 1h45 into it .. really eye opening 50m45s
https://youtu.be/qWyhKobyM68
Will watch the rest after the qualifying
Yes, I just watched 2 hours of it but had to break off to do something else. Regarding the energy section perhaps our esteemed government should watch and take notice, particularly regarding the fracking for gas and the immense difference this would make, also, it shows the futility energy wise of wind and solar with our position on the planet and the huge upfront costs that may never be recovered in our generation or the next.
CoolHands said:
Fingers crossed. Probably bulls
t though
Demographics is one of those things that sneaks up on you and pounces and once it has taken hold there might not be any coming back from it. t though China's various meddlings in family set ups must make it by far the prime candidate for a timebomb of this nature.
The demographics time bomb was interesting but I don’t think the most troubling part of that two hour plus ibriefing
The geopolitical analysis was pretty scary .. in relation to the end of the global economy, retrenchment of the USA and the effect of current events and future ( predicted) events on fuel supplies and food supplies
Particularly fascinating was the analysis around the keystone pipeline and US energy self sufficiency and the potential of a US President stopping energy exports at the stroke of a pen ( predicted to happen )
That and the prediction that the rush to green energy and electric cars is doomed to failure
The geopolitical analysis was pretty scary .. in relation to the end of the global economy, retrenchment of the USA and the effect of current events and future ( predicted) events on fuel supplies and food supplies
Particularly fascinating was the analysis around the keystone pipeline and US energy self sufficiency and the potential of a US President stopping energy exports at the stroke of a pen ( predicted to happen )
That and the prediction that the rush to green energy and electric cars is doomed to failure
One thing that struck me was how confident he was that the USA was able to stand alone when globalisation collapses because they are energy rich and able to rebuild manufacturing.
What wasn’t taken into account was how divided Americans are politically and socially and how toxic it can be when two sides don’t agree.
What wasn’t taken into account was how divided Americans are politically and socially and how toxic it can be when two sides don’t agree.
smifffymoto said:
One thing that struck me was how confident he was that the USA was able to stand alone when globalisation collapses because they are energy rich and able to rebuild manufacturing.
What wasn’t taken into account was how divided Americans are politically and socially and how toxic it can be when two sides don’t agree.
That’s because the US currently doesn’t have a clear common enemy/bogeyman to focus on. So they turn in on themselves. The US needs to be fighting someone in order to keep the peace and everyone rowing in the same direction back home. Without that they become rudderless.What wasn’t taken into account was how divided Americans are politically and socially and how toxic it can be when two sides don’t agree.
Back in the 1970s, the population of Japan was predicted to rise to 200m by the turn of the century and China would collapse under the mass of humans.
The fall-off in population expansion wasn't thought possible and China's restrictions on family size were, we were reliably informed (so we were informed), doomed to failure.
It's fair to say that there was general agreement that by the 2020s, there would be food riots, no petroleum products available at reasonable cost, and world collapse. As it turns out, predictions fell way off target. I could have predicted that if I'd known what I know now.
As us plebs enjoy a higher standard of living, so birthrates plummet. It is all but impossible for everyone to get richer year on year, so will the drop continue?
The stats are by no means simple. Predictions are based to a large extent on variables. As women gain more control over their fertility, birthrates drop. As more people choose not to have long term relationships/marriages, birth rates drop. As personal debt rises, such as uni fees, children are put off, and the cutoff point complete its inexorable habit of making decisions for you, birthrates drop.
If one of these triggers goes into reverse, I doubt it would cause significant change.
We don't know what is going to happen.
The fall-off in population expansion wasn't thought possible and China's restrictions on family size were, we were reliably informed (so we were informed), doomed to failure.
It's fair to say that there was general agreement that by the 2020s, there would be food riots, no petroleum products available at reasonable cost, and world collapse. As it turns out, predictions fell way off target. I could have predicted that if I'd known what I know now.
As us plebs enjoy a higher standard of living, so birthrates plummet. It is all but impossible for everyone to get richer year on year, so will the drop continue?
The stats are by no means simple. Predictions are based to a large extent on variables. As women gain more control over their fertility, birthrates drop. As more people choose not to have long term relationships/marriages, birth rates drop. As personal debt rises, such as uni fees, children are put off, and the cutoff point complete its inexorable habit of making decisions for you, birthrates drop.
If one of these triggers goes into reverse, I doubt it would cause significant change.
We don't know what is going to happen.
Derek Smith said:
As us plebs enjoy a higher standard of living, so birthrates plummet. It is all but impossible for everyone to get richer year on year, so will the drop continue?
Elon Musk and Bill Gates have been going at each other recently about world population. Someone threw the idea at Elon Musk that people don't have children due to cost and he said it ain't that among his friends as they're all wealthy and have either no children or one child. I wouldn't discount the cost thing but I believe come people are so caught up in the present - busy working on careers, YOLOing holidays and other pursuits or freaking out about imminent disasters/wars/pandemics - that they don't have the mental space to contemplate having children.I can't imagine anyone would have more kids after experiencing a rise in living standards followed by a fall. You're going to keep your gonads at bay and try to get your lifestyle back.
I think it's a one way trip to lower fertility and it's going to slowly spread as more people are educated and progress. My guess is that global population will peak around the middle of the century and then slowly decline to some sort of equilibirium as living standards become less varied between regions.
Maybe they'll all be equally terrible in future. Or a pure utopia. I vote for the latter.
I think it's a one way trip to lower fertility and it's going to slowly spread as more people are educated and progress. My guess is that global population will peak around the middle of the century and then slowly decline to some sort of equilibirium as living standards become less varied between regions.
Maybe they'll all be equally terrible in future. Or a pure utopia. I vote for the latter.
mikebradford said:
Interesting video
Somethings seem logical
Lots I don't know enough on to state if his opion is based on facts or not
I thought so .. very much Somethings seem logical
Lots I don't know enough on to state if his opion is based on facts or not
The logic is there it just needs someone to point it out to you
The “big picture” is sometimes so big you can’t see it for looking at it
rodericb said:
Derek Smith said:
As us plebs enjoy a higher standard of living, so birthrates plummet. It is all but impossible for everyone to get richer year on year, so will the drop continue?
Elon Musk and Bill Gates have been going at each other recently about world population. Someone threw the idea at Elon Musk that people don't have children due to cost and he said it ain't that among his friends as they're all wealthy and have either no children or one child. I wouldn't discount the cost thing but I believe come people are so caught up in the present - busy working on careers, YOLOing holidays and other pursuits or freaking out about imminent disasters/wars/pandemics - that they don't have the mental space to contemplate having children.
rodericb said:
Derek Smith said:
As us plebs enjoy a higher standard of living, so birthrates plummet. It is all but impossible for everyone to get richer year on year, so will the drop continue?
Elon Musk and Bill Gates have been going at each other recently about world population. Someone threw the idea at Elon Musk that people don't have children due to cost and he said it ain't that among his friends as they're all wealthy and have either no children or one child. I wouldn't discount the cost thing but I believe come people are so caught up in the present - busy working on careers, YOLOing holidays and other pursuits or freaking out about imminent disasters/wars/pandemics - that they don't have the mental space to contemplate having children.The people I know on benefits/low incomes seem to have more kids, and much earlier in life.
WyrleyD said:
Yes, I just watched 2 hours of it but had to break off to do something else. Regarding the energy section perhaps our esteemed government should watch and take notice, particularly regarding the fracking for gas and the immense difference this would make, also, it shows the futility energy wise of wind and solar with our position on the planet and the huge upfront costs that may never be recovered in our generation or the next.
Very interesting lecture.It seems we are quite lucky.
We have viable wind, and exploitable oil and gas, both fracking and offshore.
We also have climate benefits from global warming and onshore potash to ensure food security.
That’s the glass half full side.
The rest seems like a never ending s
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