If there was a general election next week, who would win?
Discussion
Hung Parliament.
I don't know if Reform have the wide spread support across the country. They'll win strongly in a number of seats, but are likely to encourage a good number of "Anti-Reform" tactical votes in marginals.
The Tories will maintain a rump of "I only vote Tory" to win them a bunch of seats, but I think they'll lose any marginals to Reform.
Simiarly, Labour will maintain a collection of "I only vote Labour", and grab the "anyone but Reform" in marginals.
Greens are the biggest unknown right now. I suspect they'd grab quite a few seats.
Lib Dems might do well in Tory/Labour marginals. but I think they'd return with similar seats as they have now.
The question would be, does Reform or Labour win the more seats to secure a Minority/coalition Government.
I don't know if Reform have the wide spread support across the country. They'll win strongly in a number of seats, but are likely to encourage a good number of "Anti-Reform" tactical votes in marginals.
The Tories will maintain a rump of "I only vote Tory" to win them a bunch of seats, but I think they'll lose any marginals to Reform.
Simiarly, Labour will maintain a collection of "I only vote Labour", and grab the "anyone but Reform" in marginals.
Greens are the biggest unknown right now. I suspect they'd grab quite a few seats.
Lib Dems might do well in Tory/Labour marginals. but I think they'd return with similar seats as they have now.
The question would be, does Reform or Labour win the more seats to secure a Minority/coalition Government.
Honestly?
Labour, a smaller win, but they'd still win.
Reform and Tories are still splitting the Centre Right and Right. Greens are on the up and up, but still won't win many seats, Libs are no where.
But, there isn't an election next week, if there were, things would be very different. Labour wouldn't be able to play long on economics, Reform would be doing all sorts of stunts and the Tories would at least be trying to show something, not just chucking out the odd sound bite no one's listening too and letting the previous generation toddle off to Reform.
Labour, a smaller win, but they'd still win.
Reform and Tories are still splitting the Centre Right and Right. Greens are on the up and up, but still won't win many seats, Libs are no where.
But, there isn't an election next week, if there were, things would be very different. Labour wouldn't be able to play long on economics, Reform would be doing all sorts of stunts and the Tories would at least be trying to show something, not just chucking out the odd sound bite no one's listening too and letting the previous generation toddle off to Reform.
Rivenink said:
Hung Parliament.
I don't know if Reform have the wide spread support across the country. They'll win strongly in a number of seats, but are likely to encourage a good number of "Anti-Reform" tactical votes in marginals.
The Tories will maintain a rump of "I only vote Tory" to win them a bunch of seats, but I think they'll lose any marginals to Reform.
Simiarly, Labour will maintain a collection of "I only vote Labour", and grab the "anyone but Reform" in marginals.
Greens are the biggest unknown right now. I suspect they'd grab quite a few seats.
Lib Dems might do well in Tory/Labour marginals. but I think they'd return with similar seats as they have now.
The question would be, does Reform or Labour win the more seats to secure a Minority/coalition Government.
This basically. I don't know if Reform have the wide spread support across the country. They'll win strongly in a number of seats, but are likely to encourage a good number of "Anti-Reform" tactical votes in marginals.
The Tories will maintain a rump of "I only vote Tory" to win them a bunch of seats, but I think they'll lose any marginals to Reform.
Simiarly, Labour will maintain a collection of "I only vote Labour", and grab the "anyone but Reform" in marginals.
Greens are the biggest unknown right now. I suspect they'd grab quite a few seats.
Lib Dems might do well in Tory/Labour marginals. but I think they'd return with similar seats as they have now.
The question would be, does Reform or Labour win the more seats to secure a Minority/coalition Government.
Many of the Green voters will return home to Labour. There will be a strong anti-reform tactical vote. The Tories will become the blue Lib Dems in more than policy (and are rumoured to have a 60-80 seats home counties+ strategy).
Rivenink said:
I would say though, that with such plurality in Political Parties now, we need a voting system that properly gives weight to everyone's votes.
Might be labours only hope Push through a bill on proportional representation
Still probably end up with the vote spread here there everywhere that no party emerges to the top and we end up with some form of coalition
Spent some time in Ireland when they were doing locals 18 months ago
They’ve got a really odd system
WH16 said:
Tough one. Reform and Conservatives split the centre/right. Green and Labour split the centre/left. Lib Dems probably remain as irrelevant as ever.
The Lib Dems have got, what, 70ish seats in Parliament? That's a very long way from irrelevance.The Conservatives are just as unelectable as last time. Labour have wet their trousers. And Reform are profoundly divisive; loads of people will vote "anyone other than Nigel", including loads of Conservatives.
I reckon there'd be a fair chance of a Labour government shorn up by a supply/confidence agreement with the Lib Dems and support from the Greens, if they manage to win any seats. I reckon Labour get more seats than Reform by a fair margin.
Rockettvr said:
Rivenink said:
I would say though, that with such plurality in Political Parties now, we need a voting system that properly gives weight to everyone's votes.
Might be labours only hope Push through a bill on proportional representation
Still probably end up with the vote spread here there everywhere that no party emerges to the top and we end up with some form of coalition
Spent some time in Ireland when they were doing locals 18 months ago
They ve got a really odd system
The UK system only seems to work with a binary choice for most and the odd fringe party trying to break into the big two. How many lives in the UK are at the mercy of the membership of the Conservative and Labour Party? Corbyn, Johnson, Truss a group of muppets appointed by people with too much time on their hands.
ATG said:
The Lib Dems have got, what, 70ish seats in Parliament? That's a very long way from irrelevance.
They got a lot of borrowed Conservative votes last time.I'm not sure many people feel like repeating the loan given the utterly invisible irrelevance since of those MPs.
One I'm thinking off jumped into the constituency, rented a house, hit all the doorsteps promising lots then promptly f
ked off never to be seen again except to tell the locals he was going to ignore their views. JoshSm said:
ATG said:
The Lib Dems have got, what, 70ish seats in Parliament? That's a very long way from irrelevance.
They got a lot of borrowed Conservative votes last time.I'm not sure many people feel like repeating the loan given the utterly invisible irrelevance since of those MPs.
One I'm thinking off jumped into the constituency, rented a house, hit all the doorsteps promising lots then promptly f
ked off never to be seen again except to tell the locals he was going to ignore their views. Question is, are the people who voted for them last time now prepared to go back to their previous choice? I can't see that someone who voted Lib Dem instead of Conservative at the last GE is now going to switch back to the Conservatives or Reform. The Conservatives have swung further towards Reform since the last GE and Reform are no better than before.
Jamescrs said:
I suspect some strange hung parliament with a mix of parties trying to pull something together.
Unless Reform get close enough to be put over the line by the Unionists the only viable coalition is surely Lab / Lib maybe SNP and Plaid too, unless the Tories do so badly the remainders throw the towel in.My guess would be a Labour win.
The tories are still where they were two years ago.
Reform have maybe gained some credibility as a party that can get votes, but equally they've started to make it clear what their thoughts are and a lot of people are maybe moving away from them. I think being aligned with Trump has damaged them as Trump acts worse?
The LDs picked up votes around here and might gain from people who voted either Labour or Reform on an 'anything but tory' ticket.
A lot of people seem to have lost interest and some turnouts might be low?
The tories are still where they were two years ago.
Reform have maybe gained some credibility as a party that can get votes, but equally they've started to make it clear what their thoughts are and a lot of people are maybe moving away from them. I think being aligned with Trump has damaged them as Trump acts worse?
The LDs picked up votes around here and might gain from people who voted either Labour or Reform on an 'anything but tory' ticket.
A lot of people seem to have lost interest and some turnouts might be low?
S600BSB said:
A smaller Labour majority with tactical voting on a scale never seen before in the UK to keep Reform out.
You wish.
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