If there was a General Election in three months time...

[Wacky Racer]

Expressed in percentage terms, what would the chances of a Conservative victory be?

[Slow.Patrol]

I don't know why Kemi doesn't go for a rebrand. New Tories or something.

Put distance between her and Boris and admit that he was crap at running the country.

In three months' time - maybe 10% of the vote.

Zero of them getting a victory.

[TeaNoSugar]

Wacky Racer said:

Expressed in percentage terms, what would the chances of a Conservative victory be?

Why 3 months time? A lot could happen in 3 months.

As it stands though, an overall Tory majority? That’s 326 seats at least and they have about 120. You’re asking if they can win an extra 200+ seats? Can’t be more than a few percent chance of that now though.

3% chance?

[kiethton]

By themselves it's low single digit percentage chances, a conservative/reform coalition is more likely than not in my opionion

[ferret50]

My best guess is a Reform/Conservative coalition led by Jacob Rees-Mogg.

[Wacky Racer]

TeaNoSugar said:

Why 3 months time? A lot could happen in 3 months.

3% chance?

I could have said a month, or even six months or a year.

I just picked 3 months for some reason.


I certainly think the answer would be in single figures.

[Warhavernet]

The latest poll shows the Tories at 18%, which roughly translates to 61 seats, zero chance then unless they hitch a ride with Farage the Tory grandee in waiting , which is much more likely than anyone is going to admit, and as Jim Morrison said " the future's uncertain and the end is alway near " .

[_Rodders_]

Nearly 7 million people voted for them at the last election.

Boggles my mind but they've still got a relatively large following.

Quite possible that Reform and the LDs have eaten into that number now though.

[768]

Assuming it's under FPTP, 3/5ths of fk all.

[tele_lover]

Slow.Patrol said:

I don't know why Kemi doesn't go for a rebrand. New Tories or something.

Put distance between her and Boris and admit that he was crap at running the country.

In three months' time - maybe 10% of the vote.

Zero of them getting a victory.

Problem with the Tories is they attract globalists and liberals like May, Hammond etc.

[tele_lover]

ferret50 said:

My best guess is a Reform/Conservative coalition led by Jacob Rees-Mogg.

With Restore.

Rupert Lowe is saying all the right things.

More publicity and they'll be winning seats.

[philv]

0% chance.

The uk electorate are too stupid to know what's best for them.

We're still too busy teaching those rotten tories a lesson (how's that going!?).

13 years of the tories goes the cry!
As we circle the toiler with our turd of a government.
!

[otolith]

tele_lover said:

With Restore.

Rupert Lowe is saying all the right things.

More publicity and they'll be winning seats.

Restore is hopefully going to do a great job of doing to Reform what Reform did to the Tories.

[Warhavernet]

The FPTP system only really works with a choice of two main parties and maybe a third minor no-hoper, 4 parties with roughly the same percentage of the vote gives us wishy-washy consensus politics, which is not what we need to sort out the mess Blair foisted on us.

[tele_lover]

otolith said:

tele_lover said:

With Restore.

Rupert Lowe is saying all the right things.

More publicity and they'll be winning seats.

Restore is hopefully going to do a great job of doing to Reform what Reform did to the Tories.

Do you want Restore to win seats?

[Ian Geary]

tele_lover said:

ferret50 said:

My best guess is a Reform/Conservative coalition led by Jacob Rees-Mogg.

With Restore.

Rupert Lowe is saying all the right things.

More publicity and they'll be winning seats.

Restore seems to be based on the personality of Lowe. Whilst better than Farage, I don't see how it can be scaled up nationwide.

For a coalition to work properly, there would have to be a non nompete agreement across similar minded parties.

Ie centre right ish through to right of centre. Though "one nation tories might look in askance at some of reform's rhetoric.


But as it stands? Zero chance of the tories winning an absolute majority in parliament should there be a September 2026 ge.

Local elections are not always good predictions of general elections, but i would expect to see more spread across more parties.

They might get power as a centre right coalition, but unlikely as
- they would have to play nicely with reform, Restore and i don't think they're ready, and
- the centre left could just as easily do a no compete thing, and there is ( to me) simply more voters left of centre than right of centre.

Edited by Ian Geary on Tuesday 16th June 07:43

[otolith]

tele_lover said:

Do you want Restore to win seats?

No, I want them to split the vote.

[Monkeylegend]

I would say about 80%.

[worsy]

otolith said:

tele_lover said:

Do you want Restore to win seats?

No, I want them to split the vote.

Restore make Reform look like the LibDems (on the political spectrum).

[otolith]

worsy said:

otolith said:

tele_lover said:

Do you want Restore to win seats?

No, I want them to split the vote.

Restore make Reform look like the LibDems (on the political spectrum).

Indeed they do. But in FPTP, splitting the vote doesn't mean sharing the seats.