Why are we not in a recession?
Discussion
I've lived through a number in my 60+ years - the most impactful was 2008-13 although the early 90s hit hard as well as I was working in construction.
Thing is, to me it really feels like it did in 1990 and 2008. No one spending money, people being laid off, properties sitting unsold on new housing sites. Yet, we are still not in an official recession.
What is keeping us out of recession at the moment. Is it going to happen at all?
Thing is, to me it really feels like it did in 1990 and 2008. No one spending money, people being laid off, properties sitting unsold on new housing sites. Yet, we are still not in an official recession.
What is keeping us out of recession at the moment. Is it going to happen at all?
Slow.Patrol said:
I've lived through a number in my 60+ years - the most impactful was 2008-13 although the early 90s hit hard as well as I was working in construction.
Thing is, to me it really feels like it did in 1990 and 2008. No one spending money, people being laid off, properties sitting unsold on new housing sites. Yet, we are still not in an official recession.
What is keeping us out of recession at the moment. Is it going to happen at all?
Maybe because its not really as bad as some in NP&E are making outThing is, to me it really feels like it did in 1990 and 2008. No one spending money, people being laid off, properties sitting unsold on new housing sites. Yet, we are still not in an official recession.
What is keeping us out of recession at the moment. Is it going to happen at all?
the interest rate in 1990 was 15%
And in 2008 there was a global financial crash.
Cut backs. The tory party has had years and years of austerity and attrition. Our roads are a mass of potholes. Local authorities have little income. The NHS is falling apart, as are school buildings.
There's been no concentration on increasing productivity. There's been an acceptance of old models of financial management. Boom/bust of my youth has changed to Bust/austerity. People have little money to spend so they either take out debt, which also limits spending power after the initial stage, or they don't buy.
But people do buy. Look at new cars sales. PCP is such a great idea. £5 down and it's yours until it is not. All for £hundreds a month, money that could be spent on something else.
And the answer? According to this thread, more cutbacks.
My father grew up immediately post WWI. The then government implemented a policy of austerity. When my father joined the army in 1918 he was surprised to find he had three hot meals a day. Three! He had had one a day, but not always, before. Austerity - such a good idea. Churchill's tory party wasn't voted in after WWII as the public wasn't stupid. Atlee had a plan. He built. He still kept control of the supply of money, keeping rationing well past the date other countries, including those defeated, had ditched it. Churchill got in as leader, for the first GE, on the promise of throwing caution to the wind.
What we need are controls on money. Banks only loaned money to the public if they could meet certain criteria; ie were deemed able to pay it back in a short time. First time I used hire purchase was when I was 32. Up until wanton deregulation, we had 'busts', laughable really now. No one was destitute through one of those busts. Then, when the UK became uber rich from North Sea Oil, we got nearly 7 million unemployed (on a promise of getting people back to work). Austerity.
Post war recessions were triggered by, in the main, foreign problems. Suez (I know it was started by us), OPEC, and the run of the £ by those seeking easy money. The Thatcher one was deregulation, and the 2008 by, oh wait, deregulation.
There's been no concentration on increasing productivity. There's been an acceptance of old models of financial management. Boom/bust of my youth has changed to Bust/austerity. People have little money to spend so they either take out debt, which also limits spending power after the initial stage, or they don't buy.
But people do buy. Look at new cars sales. PCP is such a great idea. £5 down and it's yours until it is not. All for £hundreds a month, money that could be spent on something else.
And the answer? According to this thread, more cutbacks.
My father grew up immediately post WWI. The then government implemented a policy of austerity. When my father joined the army in 1918 he was surprised to find he had three hot meals a day. Three! He had had one a day, but not always, before. Austerity - such a good idea. Churchill's tory party wasn't voted in after WWII as the public wasn't stupid. Atlee had a plan. He built. He still kept control of the supply of money, keeping rationing well past the date other countries, including those defeated, had ditched it. Churchill got in as leader, for the first GE, on the promise of throwing caution to the wind.
What we need are controls on money. Banks only loaned money to the public if they could meet certain criteria; ie were deemed able to pay it back in a short time. First time I used hire purchase was when I was 32. Up until wanton deregulation, we had 'busts', laughable really now. No one was destitute through one of those busts. Then, when the UK became uber rich from North Sea Oil, we got nearly 7 million unemployed (on a promise of getting people back to work). Austerity.
Post war recessions were triggered by, in the main, foreign problems. Suez (I know it was started by us), OPEC, and the run of the £ by those seeking easy money. The Thatcher one was deregulation, and the 2008 by, oh wait, deregulation.
Lots of detail on what is up and what is down here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproduc...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproduc...
Slow.Patrol said:
Sport_Turismo_GTS said:
kiethton said:
Public sector spending....
This.In which case, we could need a bail out, followed by a hard recession..
isaldiri said:
Slow.Patrol said:
Sport_Turismo_GTS said:
kiethton said:
Public sector spending....
This.In which case, we could need a bail out, followed by a hard recession..
Vanden Saab said:
isaldiri said:
Slow.Patrol said:
Sport_Turismo_GTS said:
kiethton said:
Public sector spending....
This.In which case, we could need a bail out, followed by a hard recession..
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