So we ARE still in recession, then.....

[anonymous-user]

[redacted]

[VX Foxy]

Is anyone surprised? (apart from those who predicted +0.2%)...double dip here we come say I.

[jas xjr]

unless i dreamt it i heard on the radio that we were out of the recession, do not believe it but its all bs anyway

[fido]

no surprise really. the private sector has effectively been bailed out (by low interest rates) and now the public sector will take the hit .. which in turn will lead to high debt repayments, interest rate rises or tax increases, which will stifle growth. no way out of this really, except to get the public finances into shape.

[ShadownINja]

Just wondering, how many of the "economists" who predicted the 0.2% growth in GDP predicted the start of the recession and how far it would fall? They must be billionaires from shorting FTSE futures...

[Martial Arts Man]

This comment from a Times reader sums it up nicely for me:

"I thought Britain was best placed to weather the recession?

I thought Britain was supposed to be the first country out of recession in the eurozone?

I thought a weak pound was a sign of a weak economy?

I thought there was no more boom and bust?

I thought Labour had all the 'right' policies to get Britain out of recession.

I thought Brown was supposed to be a respected international statesman who saved the world economy?

I thought, I thought, I thought........but now I know; Britain is bust under Labour like never before. The moron that got us into this mess CANNOT be the one to get us out of it. Unfortunately, we are the mugs that will be paying for his mistakes for years to come."

[andy400]

Martial Arts Man said:

This comment from a Times reader sums it up nicely for me:

"I thought Britain was best placed to weather the recession?

I thought Britain was supposed to be the first country out of recession in the eurozone?

I thought a weak pound was a sign of a weak economy?

I thought there was no more boom and bust?

I thought Labour had all the 'right' policies to get Britain out of recession.

I thought Brown was supposed to be a respected international statesman who saved the world economy?

I thought, I thought, I thought........but now I know; Britain is bust under Labour like never before. The moron that got us into this mess CANNOT be the one to get us out of it. Unfortunately, we are the mugs that will be paying for his mistakes for years to come."

Spot on.

[mondeoman]

andy400 said:

Martial Arts Man said:

This comment from a Times reader sums it up nicely for me:

"I thought Britain was best placed to weather the recession?

I thought Britain was supposed to be the first country out of recession in the eurozone?

I thought a weak pound was a sign of a weak economy?

I thought there was no more boom and bust?

I thought Labour had all the 'right' policies to get Britain out of recession.

I thought Brown was supposed to be a respected international statesman who saved the world economy?

I thought, I thought, I thought........but now I know; Britain is bust under Labour like never before. The moron that got us into this mess CANNOT be the one to get us out of it. Unfortunately, we are the mugs that will be paying for his mistakes for years to come."

Spot on.

+2

[Mclovin]

on the radio i heard that a statement was going to be made that the recession is over but why didnt they fiddle the figures a year ago and make this bleeding statement then.....

[john_p]

Mclovin said:

on the radio i heard that a statement was going to be made that the recession is over but why didnt they fiddle the figures a year ago and make this bleeding statement then.....

I'm gobsmacked by the figures, I would have thought the government spin machine knew exactly what the growth/fall would be before anyone else - so why were BBC et al over half a percentage wrong with their figures?

[Digga]

As I said on the 'other' thread, the fu=igures for the last quarter 'feel' right from my perspective; bad. I beleive (and I know I don't shut up about this) that much of this is down to the very dire state of SME banking and, specifically, the starvation of credit and working capital that has followed the big bank's clamour to correct their balances.

The trouble with figures is that they are constantly open to revision as more data emerges - hindsight being perfect and all that - and my own experience tells me that, as far as SME's go, it is better to gauge sentiment and activity amongst business owners than to rely on 'official' (i.e. filtered or doctored) data.

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Hang on.

I'd rank business capital as being right up there. Half of all employment in the UK is in SMEs and almost every one has had some kind of reduction in liquidity since the start of the crunch, as banks stampeded to re-capitalise. You will never get the economy moving towards a concerted recovery, or re-start tax receipts, until this is sorted.

Edited by Digga on Friday 23 October 12:03

[Fittster]

So the only thing keep the economy alive is the vast amount of cash that has been pumped into the banks, which has resulted in asset bubbles in gold, copper and shares.

I wait with interest for the money to be removed from the system.

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

[RichardD]

Fittster said:

So the only thing keep the economy alive is the vast amount of cash that has been pumped into the banks, which has resulted in asset bubbles in gold, copper and shares.

I wait with interest for the money to be removed from the system.

I read earlier today that this latest news would give increased ammunition for further Q.E. !

Merv has stated about "rebalancing" recently.

Printing money until lets say 10 GBP is required for 1 EUR will allow the country to thrive as a low cost manufacturing base !

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Give me a fking break. We're talking SMEs here, not Plcs!

Aside from being too hamstrung by red tape to do anything thoroughly, these are not 'prefect' enterprises. Even those that have long and successful trading histories will not approach business in the same way as larger companies.

In many cases, these facilities have stood for years, if not decades. I know it's not the fault of their (current) bank manager, that the call to arbitrarily cut lending is a central dictat, made for sound reasons. But the government and the B of E should have seen this coming.

Cutting crazy personal lending, is one thing, as is curtailing toxic CDOs etc., but cutting business liquidity is nuts. There are engineering firms in the W. Mids working three days in every fortnight - how long before the armies of 'only just employeds' hit the doel queues? And then what?

Edited by Digga on Friday 23 October 12:19

[anonymous-user]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

But surely that is one of the problems with our economy an overdraft should be for emergency and unusual overspending not a permanent way of funding your business. How much in dividends etc was paid out over that 10 years that could have been used to pay off or at least reduce the overdraft so that the business wasn't dependent on the banks money. That is one of the reasons so many business have failed not because the business itself was unsound, but because the owners took out money that should have been used to reduce debt and left the business without working capital.

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Technically, under 250 employees. There are some pretty 'big' firms (in terms of head count) that are run in a pretty 'small' way.

However, the worst 'pain' seems to have been borne by the smaller private businesses - the old saw of if you owe the bank a few grand it's your problem, but if you owe them a few hundred million it's theirs, seems apt - who tend to banks with the Barclays, HSBCS and Llloyds of this world.

I think larger businesses have more 'robust' finances and plans in place. Certainly, I am not arguing this from my own viewpoint - both my businesses are funded away from UK/high street banks - but I do firmly beleive it is truly a mjaor issue.

[Digga]

Bluequay said:

But surely that is one of the problems with our economy an overdraft should be for emergency and unusual overspending not a permanent way of funding your business.

I agree with what you say, but overdrafts have been used by businesses and offered by banks as a 'rolling' facility. I repeat; FOR YEARS IF NOT DECADES. End of discussion.

I guess it was one, easy, reliable way for banks to earn something out of small business clients perhaps?

ETA if this was an issue for the abnks they all had adequate opportunity to discuss the withdrawal of their unbrella before it started raining.

Edited by Digga on Friday 23 October 12:32

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

This is (kind of) part of my point.

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Yes, it's these too, but to be fair the withdrawal or slashing of overdrafts is by far the most often quoted issue I hear of.

We have one supplier who cannot sell as much as they want to one of our firms, purely because of arbittrary credit limits. (I'm assuming they're 'arbitrary' because we ourselves do not struggle to get credit or have other suppliers who are telling us the same thing.)